Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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Five Approaches
Recognizing
the Good Stuff
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Example:
• Three years ago, terrorists just tried to crash a plane
into the Eiffel tower. What if we had asked ourselves
then: “Would they do something similar in the United
States? How would they pull this off?”
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Value Added:
• Focuses attention on all the things that must fall
into place for a low probability--but high impact--
event to actually occur.
• Alerts you to potentially useful reporting that you
might have ignored or would have regarded as
noise.
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Outside-In Thinking
Definition: A technique for identifying the full range of
forces, factors, and trends that would indirectly shape
an issue.
Examples:
• In brainstorming how al-Qaeda elements are
communicating with each other, are there any
technological trends or new technologies that we need
to consider (eg., use of “unsent” email messages, MP3,
or IPods)?
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Inside-Out versus
Outside-In Thinking
H ow W e W ork:
O u t s id e - I n T h in k in g
T h e W o r ld
T he Industry
O ur
O r g a n iz a t io n
H ig h
I n f lu e n c e
• • MM aar rk keet t s si zi zee, ,
g gr ro owwt thh, , aan ndd K ey F actors:
v vo ol al at ti li il ti ty y S o m e I n f lu e n c e
• • CCu us st to omm eer rs s •• SSo oc ci ai al l
• • CCo omm p peet ti ti to or rs s Key F orces: •• TTeec chhn no ol ol og gi ci ca al l
• • SSu up pp pl il ei er rs s L it t le o r N o I n f lu e n c e •• EEc co on no ommi ci c
• • OO wwn neer rs s •• EEn nv vi ri ro on nmm e en nt taal l
• • CCo omm mmu un ni ti ti ei es s •• P Po ol il ti ti ci ca al l
• • P Paar rt tn neer rs s
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Competing Approaches
Question: How do we assess a terrorist threat?
Inside-Out Approach:
• Monitor reporting for tipoffs/lead information.
• Extrapolate patterns from reporting trends.
Outside-In Approach:
• Identify relevant global trends.
• Assess how they might affect when, where, and how
a terrorist might launch an attack.
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Outside-In Thinking
The Method:
• Generate a generic description of the problem at hand.
• List all the factors (social, technological, economic) that could
have an impact (the subject usually has little influence over
these factors but can exploit them).
• Next list the factors over which the subject can exert some
influence (choice of partners, methods of communication,
capability to acquire feedback, etc.).
• Assess how each of these factors could have an impact.
• Look for data that suggests they actually have an impact.
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Empirically-derived Checklists
The Method:
• Establish categories of data (walk-ins, detainee reports, émigré
reporting, human sources, etc.)
• Review the reporting within each category and establish criteria for
what turned out to be useful or not.
• Develop a rough scale. For example, reporting that turned out to
be useful usually met these criteria; bad reporting often fell into
these boxes, etc.
• Use these lists to rate the utility of incoming reporting.
• Rate the new reporting based on these lists and revise/refine the
lists over time.
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Eliminating
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Detecting Deception
Definition:
The identification of a complete set of alternative
hypotheses, the systematic evaluation of data
that is consistent and inconsistent with each
hypothesis, and the rejection of hypotheses
that contain too much inconsistent data.
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Advantages:
• Ensures that all the information and argumentation
is evaluated.
• Helps avoid premature closure.
• Highlights the evidence that is most “discriminating”
in making the case.
• Removes the relatively unimportant data from
the equation.
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of the evidence.
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