Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BUY Bank Danamon
Undemanding multiples with room for
Interim Results further improvement
Analyst What’s New
Rahmi Marina
rmarina@kimeng.co.id Bank Danamon’s yield declined to 16.8% in 2Q10 (vs. 17% in 1Q10). As
(62 21) 2557 1128 the decline was accompanied by a q/q jump of 9.6% in its loan book to
Rp66.6t, Danamon was able to maintain its NIM at 11.7%, despite the
high CoF of 5.4%. Backed by the bonds issuance plan of ~Rp3t, the
Price (Rp) Rp5,350 bank aims to grow loans up to 20% in FY10.
Target (Rp) Rp6,300 Danamon’s focus in high‐yield consumer lending is the key driver of its
IDX Index 3099 good performance. The derivative loss that dragged down its profit in
2009 no longer exists. Hence, the bank is now able to translate its
Historical Chart strong NIM to a ROE of 18.7%, the highest in our banking coverage.
(Rp)
6,000 Volume (mil. shares) Close
(Million shares)
70.0
Our View
5,800
60.0
5,600
5,400
50.0 We are likely to see a decline of 40bp in its IEA yield to a FY10 average
5,200
5,000
40.0
30.0
of 16.4%, an indicator of the rising competition in consumer lending.
4,800
4,600
20.0 While the strong demand in automotive financing and the under‐
10.0
4,400
4,200 0.0
penetrated market in micro‐lending will support Danamon’s loan, we
28-Aug-09 20-Oct-09 7-Dec-09 28-Jan-10 18-Mar-10 5-May-10 23-Jun-10 10-Aug-10
believe its growth will be limited to 18% in compliance with Bank
Performance 1m 3m 6m Indonesia’s upcoming policy.
Absolute (%) 0.0 3.9 7.5 The planned LDR‐linked reserve requirement adds to our concern for
Relative (%) ‐1.0 ‐6.9 ‐14.1 the bank’s weak deposit book. Danamon’s LDR of 100% suggests that
loans might only expand at an even higher CoF. The bank might also be
Stock Information charged with a penalty should it fail to keep its LDR between 75‐102%.
Ticker code BDMN Action & Recommendation
Market cap (US$m) 5,078
52‐week high (Rp) 5,800 Our 2010F/2011F profit estimates now stand at Rp3.4t/Rp4.4t (‐
52‐week low (Rp) 4,300 2.4%/+5.7%) at the higher TP of Rp6,300/share (12.3x PER, 2.7x PBV),
Shares issued (m) 8,555 as we roll forward the valuation base to 2011. Valuation is
6m avg d.vol (US$m) 3.5
Free float (%) 32.4
undemanding, but improvement is required in the deposit franchise.
We recommend BUY on weakness for Bank Danamon.
INDONESIA
Major shareholders (%)
Asia Financial Pte Ltd ( 67.4)
Others (0.2) Year End Dec 31 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F
NII (Rp b) 8,490 11,133 11,259 13,346 14,806
Pretax Profit (Rp b) 2,678 2,371 4,633 5,909 6,296
Key Indicators*
Net profit (Rp b) 1,530 1,533 3,427 4,384 4,674
NIM (%) 9.3 EPS (Rp) 306 179 401 512 546
ROA (%) 3.0 EPS growth (%) ‐25.9 ‐41.4 123.6 27.9 6.6
ROE (%) 18.7 PER (x) 17.5 29.9 13.2 10.3 9.7
CIR (%) 51.4 PBV (x) 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.0
*Bank only, not consolidated
Yield (%) 1.7 1.7 3.8 4.8 5.2
SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Bank Danamon 31 August 2010
Figure 1: Bank Danamon 1H10 results
(Rp b) 1H10 1H09 % chg y/y 2Q10 1Q10 % chg q/q
Net Interest Income 4,869 4,471 8.9 1,945 2,923 ‐33.5
Operating income 1,733 1,396 24.1 1,528 204 648.3
Operating expenses 4,532 4,432 2.3 3,001 1,531 96.0
Pre‐tax income 2,001 1,436 39.4 1,015 986 3.0
Net profit 1,433 870 64.7 733 701 4.6
Gross loans 66,556 58,713 13.4 66,556 60,733 9.6
Total assets 100,447 98,888 1.6 100,447 97,330 3.2
Total deposits 66,320 66,432 ‐0.2 66,320 64,623 2.6
NIM (%) 11.7 10.0
Gross NPL (%) 3.4 3.5
LDR (%) 98.8 87.6
CAR (%) 18.2 22.6
Source: Company data, Kim Eng
2
Bank Danamon 31 August 2010
Profit and loss Key ratios
YE Dec (Rp b) 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F YE Dec 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F
Net Interest Income 8,490 9,608 11,259 13,346 14,806 Per share ratio
Fees and commissions 2,119 2,187 1,762 2,027 2,290 EPS (Rp) 306.0 179.1 400.5 512.4 546.3
Other income 966 1,336 1,843 1,806 1,856 EPS Growth (%) (25.9) (41.4) 123.6 27.9 6.6
Operating Income 9,456 10,943 13,103 15,151 16,662 PER (X) 17.5 29.9 13.2 10.3 9.7
Operating expenses 7,070 7,458 7,121 7,928 8,908 BVPS (Rp) 2,115.5 1,847.4 2,097.6 2,353.8 2,627.0
Pre‐Provision Profit 2,387 3,485 5,982 7,223 7,754 PBV (X) 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.0
Loan Loss Provision (1,835) (2,890) (2,725) (3,133) (3,541) ROA (%) 1.6 1.5 3.3 3.8 3.7
Pretax Profit 2,678 2,371 4,633 5,909 6,296 ROE (%) 14.3 11.6 20.3 23.0 21.9
Tax (876) (757) (1,158) (1,477) (1,574) DPS (Rp) 90.8 91.0 200.3 256.2 273.1
Minorities (272) (81) (48) (48) (48) Dividend yield (%) 1.7 1.7 3.8 4.8 5.2
Net Profit 1,530 1,533 3,427 4,384 4,674 Earning & forecasts (%)
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates Net profit growth (27.7) 0.2 123.6 27.9 6.6
Net interest income growth 17.0 13.2 17.2 18.5 10.9
Cost Income Ratio 66.6 63.2 54.7 51.6 52.1
Loans growth 26.1 (6.9) 18.0 15.0 13.0
Deposits growth 28.3 (9.3) 8.3 11.0 12.7
Loans/Deposit Ratio 87.5 89.9 98.0 101.5 101.8
Balance sheet Yield on IEA 18.0 18.3 16.4 17.7 17.7
YE Dec (Rp b) 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F Cost of funds 8.7 6.0 5.9 7.1 7.1
Cash on hand 4,162 2,117 1,652 1,630 1,644 Net interest margin 9.2 11.2 11.4 12.2 12.2
Deposits at BI 7,560 8,743 6,177 6,766 7,408 Asset quality
Placements 4,669 3,867 5,765 5,688 5,737 Gross NPL amount (Rp b) 1,534 2,787 2,725 3,133 3,541
Mkt. securities 14,964 12,796 15,254 15,049 15,180 Net NPL amount (Rp b) 0 586 117 134 152
Gross Loans 64,234 59,832 70,602 81,192 91,747 Gross NPL ratio (%) 2.4 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.9
Fixed assets 1,905 1,802 1,502 1,234 968 Net NPL ratio (%) ‐ 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.2
Other 9,775 9,441 9,460 8,908 8,679 Total provisions / NPL (%) 101.9 79.0 95.7 95.7 95.7
Total Assets 107,268 98,598 110,411 120,466 131,363 Tier One CAR (%) 13.0 19.6 19.0 19.2 19.5
Customer deposits 73,430 66,576 72,073 80,007 90,141 Total CAR (%) 13.4 21.5 20.9 21.0 21.2
Borrowings 6,314 2,894 2,728 2,728 2,728 Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
Other liabilities 16,415 13,226 17,554 17,483 15,908
Total liabilities 96,159 82,696 92,354 100,218 108,777
Paid up capital 3,632 5,304 5,316 5,316 5,316
Additional paid up capital 675 2,964 3,041 3,041 3,041
Others (717) (204) 134 134 134
Retained earnings 6,989 7,742 9,455 11,647 13,984
Shareholders fund 10,579 15,806 17,946 20,138 22,475
Minority interest 530 96 111 111 111
Total liabilities & Equity 107,269 98,598 110,411 120,466 131,363
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
3
ANALYSTS’ COVERAGE / RESEARCH OFFICES
SINGAPORE MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES
Stephanie WONG Head of Research YEW Chee Yoon Head of Research Ricardo PUIG Head of Research
Regional Head of Institutional Research +603 2141 1555 cheeyoon@kimengkl.com +63 2 849 8835 ricardo_puig@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1451 swong@kimeng.com Strategy Strategy
Strategy Banks Property
Small & Mid Caps Telcos Telcos
Gregory YAP Property Laura DY‐LIACCO
+65 6432 1450 gyap@kimeng.com Conglomerates & others +63 2 849 8840 laura_dyliacco@atr.com.ph
Conglomerates LIEW Mee Kien Utilities
Technology & Manufacturing +603 2141 1555 meekien@kimengkl.com Conglomerates
Transport & Telcos Gaming Lovell SARREAL
Rohan SUPPIAH Media +63 2 849 8841 lovell_sarreal@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1455 rohan@kimeng.com Power Consumer
Airlines Construction Media
Marine & Offshore Research Team Kenneth NERECINA
Pauline LEE +603 2141 1555 +63 2 849 8839 kenneth_nerecina@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1453 paulinelee@kimeng.com Food & Beverage Conglomerates
Bank & Finance Manufacturing Cement
Consumer Plantations Ports/ Logistics
Retail Tobacco Katherine TAN
Wilson LIEW Technology +63 2 849 8843 kat_tan@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1454 wilsonliew@kimeng.com Banks
Hotel & Resort INDONESIA Construction
Property & Construction Katarina SETIAWAN Head of Research
Anni KUM +6221 2557 1125 ksetiawan@kimeng.co.id REGIONAL
+65 6432 1470 annikum@kimeng.com Consumer Luz LORENZO Economist
Industrials Infra +63 2 849 8836 luz_lorenzo@atr.com.ph
REITs Shipping Economics
James KOH Strategy
+65 6432 1431 jameskoh@kimeng.com Telcos ONG Seng Yeow
Infrastructure Others +65 6432 1832 ongsengyeow@kimeng.com
Resources Ricardo SILAEN Regional Products & Planning
Eric ONG +6221 2557 1126 rsilaen@kimeng.co.id
+65 6432 1857 ericong@kimeng.com Auto
Marine & Offshore Energy TAIWAN
David LOOMIS Heavy Equipment Gary Chia
+65 6432 1417 dloomis@kimeng.com Property Head of Greater China Research
Special Situations Resources +886 2 3518 7900 gary.chia@yuanta.com
Rahmi MARINA Boris Markovich
HONG KONG / CHINA +6221 2557 1128 rmarina@kimeng.co.id COO, Greater China Research
Edward FUNG Head of Research Banking +852 3969 9518 boris.markovic@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0632 edwardfung@kimeng.com.hk Lucky ARIESANDI, CFA John Brebeck, CFA
Power +6221 2557 1127 lariesandi@kimeng.co.id Head of Taiwan Strategy
Construction Cement Head of Research, Taiwan
Norman ZHANG Construction +886 2 3518 7906 john.brebeck@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0631 normanzhang@kimeng.com.hk Pharmaceutical George Chang, CFA
Technology/mid‐caps Retail Head of Upstream Tech
Ivan CHEUNG Adi N. WICAKSONO +886 2 3518 7907 george.chang@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0634 ivancheung@kimeng.com.hk +6221 2557 1130 anwicaksono@kimeng.co.id Vincent Chen
Property Generalist Head of Downstream Tech
Ivan LI Arwani PRANADJAYA +886 2 3518 7903 vincent.chen@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0641 ivanli@kimeng.com.hk +6221 2557 1129 apranadjaya@kimeng.co.id Dennis Chan – NB Supply Chain
Banking & Finance Technical analyst +886 2 3518 7913 dennis.chan@yuanta.com
TAM Tsz Wang Andrew C Chen – IC Backend
+852 2268 0636 tamtszwang@kimeng.com.hk VIETNAM +886 2 3518 7940 andrew.chen@yuanta.com
Telcos Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen Ellen Chiu – Taiwan Consumer
Small Caps +84 838 38 66 36 x 163 tuyen.nguyen@kimeng.com.vn +886 2 3518 7936 ellen.chiu@yuanta.com
Jacqueline KO Pharmaceutical Danny Ho – Taiwan Petrochemical
+852 2268 0633 jacquelineko@kimeng.com.hk Confectionary and Beverage +886 2 3518 7923 danny.ho@yuanta.com
Food & Beverage Oil and Gas Min Li – Alternative Energy
Grace DAI Ngo Bich Van +852 3969 9521 min.li@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0640 gracedai@kimeng.com.hk +84 838 38 66 36 x 164 van.ngo@kimeng.com.vn May Lin – Taiwan Telecom
Metal Bank +886 2 3518 7942 may.lin@yuanta.com
Insurance Tess Wang – Taiwan Financials
INDIA Nguyen Quang Duy +886 2 3518 7901 tess.wang@yuanta.com
Jigar SHAH Head of Research +84 838 38 66 36 x 162 duy.nguyenquang@kimeng.com.vn
+91 22 6623 2601 jshah@kimeng.com Shipping
Oil & Gas Seafood
Transportation Rubber
Anubhav GUPTA Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep
+91 22 6623 2605 agupta@kimeng.com +84 838 38 66 36 x 166 diep.trinh@kimeng.com.vn
Property Property
Capital goods Construction
Rohit LEDWANI
+91226623 2625 rohit@kimeng.co.in THAILAND
Banking and Financial services Kanchan KHANIJOU
Nikhil AGARWAL + 662 658 6300 x 4750 kanchan@kimeng.co.th
+91226623 2611 nikhil@kimeng.co.in Banks Recommendation definitions
Cement Construction Materials
Metals Nathavut SHIVARUCHIWONG
Our recommendation is based on the
Haripreet BATRA + 662 658 6300 x 4730 nathavut@kimeng.co.th following expected price
+91226623 2606 haripreet@imeng.co.in Property
Software Shipping
performance within 12 months:
Education
Ganesh RAM +15% and above: BUY
+91226623 2607 ganeshram@kimeng.co.in
Telecom ‐15% to +15%: HOLD
Media ‐15% or worse: SELL
4
Bank Danamon 31 August 2010
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLOSURES
AND
DISCLAIMERS
This report, and any electronic access to it, is restricted to and intended only for clients of PT Kim Eng Securities ("KES") or a related
entity to KES (as the case may be) who are institutional investors (for the purposes of both the Singapore Securities and Futures Act
(“SFA”) and the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (“FAA”)) and who are allowed access thereto (each an "Authorised Person") and is
subject to the terms and disclaimers below.
IF YOU ARE NOT AN AUTHORISED PERSON OR DO NOT AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE TERMS AND DISCLAIMERS SET OUT BELOW,
YOU SHOULD DISREGARD THIS REPORT IN ITS ENTIRETY AND LET KES OR ITS RELATED ENTITY (AS RELEVANT) KNOW THAT YOU NO
LONGER WISH TO RECEIVE SUCH REPORTS.
This report provides information and opinions as reference resource only. This report is not intended to be and does not constitute
financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy
or sell any securities or related financial products. The information and commentaries are also not meant to be endorsements or
offerings of any securities, options, stocks or other investment vehicles.
The report has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons who receive
it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Readers should not rely on any of the information
herein as authoritative or substitute for the exercise of their own skill and judgment in making any investment or other decision.
Readers should independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and are encouraged to seek the advice of a financial
adviser before making any investment or entering into any transaction in relation to the securities mentioned in this report. The
appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend
on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives and should be confirmed by such investor with his advisers independently
before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied). You agree that any and all use of this report which you make, is solely at
your own risk and without any recourse whatsoever to KES, its related and affiliate companies and/or their employees. You
understand that you are using this report AT YOUR OWN RISK.
This report is being disseminated to or allowed access by Authorised Persons in their respective jurisdictions by the Kim Eng
affiliated entity/entities operating and carrying on business as a securities dealer or financial adviser in that jurisdiction (collectively
or individually, as the context requires, "Kim Eng") which has, vis‐à‐vis a relevant Authorised Person, approved of, and is solely
responsible in that jurisdiction for, the contents of this publication in that jurisdiction.
Kim Eng, its related and affiliate companies and/or their employees may have investments in securities or derivatives of securities
of companies mentioned in this report, and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in this report. Derivatives may
be issued by Kim Eng its related companies or associated/affiliated persons.
Kim Eng and its related and affiliated companies are involved in many businesses that may relate to companies mentioned in this
report. These businesses include market making and specialised trading, risk arbitrage and other proprietary trading, fund
management, investment services and corporate finance.
Except with respect the disclosures of interest made above, this report is based on public information. Kim Eng makes reasonable
effort to use reliable, comprehensive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. The reader
should also note that unless otherwise stated, none of Kim Eng or any third‐party data providers make ANY warranties or
representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have
liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data.
Proprietary Rights to Content. The reader acknowledges and agrees that this report contains information, photographs, graphics,
text, images, logos, icons, typefaces, and/or other material (collectively “Content”) protected by copyrights, trademarks, or other
proprietary rights, and that these rights are valid and protected in all forms, media, and technologies existing now or hereinafter
developed. The Content is the property of Kim Eng or that of third party providers of content or licensors. The compilation
(meaning the collection, arrangement, and assembly) of all content on this report is the exclusive property of Kim Eng and is
protected by Singapore and international copyright laws. The reader may not copy, modify, remove, delete, augment, add to,
publish, transmit, participate in the transfer, license or sale of, create derivative works from, or in any way exploit any of the
Content, in whole or in part, except as specifically permitted herein. If no specific restrictions are stated, the reader may make one
copy of select portions of the Content, provided that the copy is made only for personal, information, and non‐commercial use and
that the reader does not alter or modify the Content in any way, and maintain any notices contained in the Content, such as all
copyright notices, trademark legends, or other proprietary rights notices. Except as provided in the preceding sentence or as
permitted by the fair dealing privilege under copyright laws, the reader may not reproduce, or distribute in any way any Content
without obtaining permission of the owner of the copyright, trademark or other proprietary right. Any authorised/permitted
distribution is restricted to such distribution not being in violation of the copyright of Kim Eng only and does not in any way
represent an endorsement of the contents permitted or authorised to be distributed to third parties.
5
Bank Danamon 31 August 2010
Additional information on mentioned securities is available on request.
Jurisdiction Specific Additional Disclaimers:
THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TO THE RECIPIENT, MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PRESS OR OTHER MEDIA,
AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM AND MAY NOT BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA, OR
PROVIDED OR TRANSMITTED TO ANY KOREAN PERSON. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A
VIOLATION OF SECURITIES LAWS IN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA. BY ACCEPTING THIS REPORT, YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE
FOREGOING LIMITATIONS.
THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TO THE RECIPIENT, MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PRESS OR OTHER MEDIA,
AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM AND MAY NOT BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO MALAYSIA OR PROVIDED OR
TRANSMITTED TO ANY MALAYSIAN PERSON. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF
SECURITIES LAWS IN MALAYSIA. BY ACCEPTING THIS REPORT, YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE FOREGOING LIMITATIONS.
Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply if the
reader is receiving or accessing this report in or from other than Singapore.
As of 31 August 2010, PT Kim Eng Securities and the covering analyst do not have any interest in companies mentioned in the
report.
Analyst Certification:
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject
securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
© 2010 PT Kim Eng Securities All rights reserved. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced
or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of PT Kim Eng Securities. PT Kim Eng Securities accepts no
liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
6
Indonesia Equity Research Our Reports are available at Bloomberg, Thomson & Reuters www.kimengresearch.com.sg