IBM X-Force
®
2010Mid-Year Trend and Risk Report
August 2010
2
IBM Security Solutions
IBM X-Force® 2010 Mid-Year Trend and Risk Report
Contributors
Contributor Title
Bryan Williams X-Force Research and Development, Protection TechnologiesCarsten Hagemann X-Force Software Engineer, Content SecurityDr. Jens Thamm Database Management Content SecurityFrank (Jamie) Licitra X-Force Product ManagerHarold Moss Security Strategy - Emerging Tech & Cloud Computing Technical ArchitectJon Larimer X-Force Advanced Research, MalwareLeslie Horacek X-Force Threat Response ManagerMarc Noske Database Administration, Content SecurityMark E. Wallis Senior Information Developer, X-Force Database TeamMichael Waidner CTO for Security, IBM Security StrategyMichelle Alvarez Team Lead, MSS Intelligence Center (aka Eagle Eyes)Mike Wareld Senior Wizard, X-ForceRalf Iffert Manager, X-Force Content SecurityRavi Srinivasan IBM Software Group, Tivoli Senior Product ManagerRobert Freeman Senior Technologist & Web Exploit WatchmanRyan McNulty IBM Managed Security Services & SQL Querier ExtraordinaireScott Moore X-Force Software Developer & X-Force Database Team LeadTom Cross Manager, X-Force Advanced ResearchWangui McKelvey X-Force Product Marketing Manager
Producing the X-Force Mid-year Trend and Risk Report is a dedication in collaboration across all of IBM.We would like to thank the following individuals for their rapt attention and dedication to the publication of this report.
About X-Force
The IBM X-Force® research and developmentteams study and monitor the latest threat trendsincluding vulnerabilities, exploits and active attacks,viruses and other malware, spam, phishing, andmalicious Web content. In addition to advisingcustomers and the general public on how torespond to emerging and critical threats, X-Forcealso delivers security content to protect IBMcustomers from these threats.
Contributors
3
IBM Security Solutions
IBM X-Force® 2010 Mid-Year Trend and Risk Report
Contents
Section I
Overview 5
2010 Mid-year highlights 6
Vulnerabilities and exploitation 6Malware and the malicious Web 6Spam and phishing 6Future topics beyond 2010 7
IBM Security collaboration 7
Hot trends to understand in 2010 8
Covert threats to the enterprise 8
Advanced persistent threat (APT) 8Sophisticated attackers 9Financially motivated attacks 10JavaScript obfuscation—a popular evasive technique 11Fighting APT 11
PDF exploitation is HOT! 12
Protection against PDF-based attacks 13PDF exploitation attack activity 14
Malicious code obfuscation trends 16
Obfuscated attack activity 17
The ever changing threat landscape 18
Vulnerability disclosures—2010 rst half reports well ahead of 2009 numbers 18
First half of 2010 vulnerability disclosure count 18
Patch rate 19
Availability of vulnerability xes and patches 19Best and worst patchers 20
Exploit effort versus potential reward matrix 21
Public disclosures that had impact 24
Concker update—what has happened since the end of 2009? 25
X-Force response to Concker 26The future of Concker? 28
Trending in the dark—what does malicious trafc look like? 29
Spoofed denial of service attacks 29Brute force attacks 31
Computer crime—who’s tricking who? 33
Zeus botnet—facts, myths, andunderstanding how these botnets operate 33Myths about Zeus 33
Single Zeus botnet? 33Is Zeus a virus or a worm? 33How does Zeus install itself? 33
New version of the Zeus botnet toolkit 34
Changes in Zeus 2 34
Protecting yourself from Zeus 36
PC safety 36Email and messaging safety 36Indicators of infection 36
BlackHat search engine poisoning 37Rogue anti-virus software 37Spam—impersonators of the Internet 38
Spammers’ domains move from .cn to .ru 38Bandwidth irrelevant: byte size of spam signicantly increased 41
Phishing—are you falling for it? 43
A new focus on phishing techniques 43Financial phishing targeted at banks located in the US 45
Future topics—2010 and beyond 47
IPv6 deployments—we will soonbe out of IPv4 addresses; are we ready? 47
IPv6 expansion and deployment 47
Virtualization—consolidating intovirtual spaces and what it means to our security 49
Virtualization vulnerabilities disclosure trend 49Virtualization vulnerabilities by severity 50Virtualization vulnerabilities by location 51Virtualization vulnerabilities by product type 52Virtualization vulnerabilities by vulnerability type 53Virtualization vulnerabilities by vendor 56Exploit availability 56
The emerging cloud:adoption of cloud services for the future 57
Contents > Section I
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