ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
DAILY REPORT, for September 9, 2010 Thursday
PSEI:
3,804.73, +29.45 pts, +0.78%
; Value of Trades:
php6.264B
; Adv:
97
Dec:
43
Unch:
37
REVIEW & OUTLOOK
ASIAN MARKETS slumped in Wednesday's session tracking the the Dow's 107 pointslide overnight. This however failed to dampen local sentiments as investorsfollowed up on an ALI-induced, late session rebound Tuesday, to break the 3,800psychological resistance line.The composite added 29.45 points to 3,804.73, the highest level reached since the3,819.17 last October 19, 2007 and just 0.01% or 68.77 points under the bull market's3,873.50 peak. Over the last three years (2007-2009) the market's strongest and weakest levels were reached in the fourth quarter. All indications point to a similarexperience this year.In 2007, the market peaked in October at 3,873.50. The bottom was registered inthe same month of the following year, 2008 at 1,704.41. Last year's top of 3,119.96 was reached December 2, 2009. This is the highest so far for the current year and abreak to a new all-time high for the index appears highly probable, if not a foregoneconclusion, given the present state of investor sentiments. Advancers outran decliners more than 2-to-1 with the number of unchanged issueskept at a low 37. Quite obviously, the fence-sitters of the early to mid part of the year (when traded but unchanged counters averaged between 50 to 60) have jumped into the fray on the advancers (buyers) side, lending further credence to thestrength of the upside. While the initial concentration of trades were locked onblue chip counters, the improving economic outlook, plus the dizzying heights mostof these topline issues have reached, necessitated as shift to second-liners, and tosome extent, third liners as the market waited for first line prices to “correct.” Thedegree of such corrections, in turn, have been minimal with late-buyers takingmarginal drops as an opportunity to “not-miss-the-bus” a second-time. This, is anutshell, has kept the market at a steady, and sturdy, upward bias. After falling under the month-to-date daily average Tuesday, value turnover turnedin a huge php6.26 billlion Wednesday, with over 2 billion shares changing hands.
(At this moment, we have no official data on whether there were block sale figures inthese numbers. Suffice to say that, even if there was a Php1 billion worth of suchtrades, the net value remains on the php5.0 billion average.)
As the market closed at noontime, European and American futures indexes were all in the red, indicating a possible sustained round of weaknessin Western equities. Only the Brazilian bourse, BOVESPA, offer prospects of a positive session, albeit a minimal 0.14%. Last night, a resurfacingof concerns over European debt sent bond prices higher and stocks lower as investors braced for and minimized the risks in their portfolios. Werecall that it was Europe's debt problems, particularly those of the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) that burdened market sentiments lastMay, sending global equity values spiralling downwards.To say that the market is in technically overbought conditions is tantamount to stating the obvious. Yet, as we have observed over an extendedperiod, investors have largely ignored technical guidance and have based trade decisions on fundamentals, beginning with then prospective Q2and 1H earnings. We believe the crosshairs will stay trained on this aspect of the market – searching for undervaluations relative to eachindividual firm's prospects in the context of the country's growth pace surprises.In light of the market's early breach of the 3,800-line, we are constrained to revise the year-end index target to between 3,850 to 4,100. A complete “reversal of fortunes” - so to speak – locates critical support at the 3,620 line.
DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TOOTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN ISFROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WESHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THISREPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THEINDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
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