Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
1929< X >
-A --B --C --D --E -
< Y >
-III --I --II -
( Y )
-IV --Y -
< II >1982
( W )( X )
-W --X --I --II --III --IV -
1966< I >
2000< III >
-A --B -
Dow Jones Industrial Average (Monthly Log Scale)
This period was congestive/correcitve. The Wave-V-did not start until the beginning of 1995.
The Supercyle Wave II, which began in 1860, concluded in 1949. It makes sense that the United States beginsits SuperCycle Wave III as it establishes itself as a³Super Power´ after World War II.
-C --D --E -
< IV >2028-2045
The implications of this longer term count is that we¶re in a Cycle Fourth Wave thatMUST last until
2018. Generally speaking, fourth waves should last as long asthe wave-3 which precedes them--in this case, it was an 18 year third. This suggeststhe highs and lows established in the last decade will hold for the next decade as weexperience more whipsaw congestion. The wave <IV> should not last longer than 162%of Wave <III>, therefore it will be over by 2030.
It¶s interesting to note that the Baby Boom generation (born between 1946 and 1964) should be ³in the latter stages of life´ during the time period of 2018 to 2030. This seems like an obvious³inflection point´ for the macro-economy.