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COTTON WORLD MARKET AND TRADE REPORT : MONTH SEPTEMBER 2010

COTTON WORLD MARKET AND TRADE REPORT : MONTH SEPTEMBER 2010

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Published by: cottontrade on Sep 13, 2010
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09/14/2010

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United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture
ForeignAgriculturalService
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
Circular SeriesFOP 09- 10September 2010
 
Cotton:World Markets and Trade
 
Record Early-Season U.S. Export SalesAs Prices Surge
Early
 
Season
 
Commitments
01234567
   2   0   0   5   /   0   6   2   0   0   6   /   0   7   2   0   0   7   /   0   8   2   0   0   8   /   0   9   2   0   0   9   /  1   0   2   0  1   0   /  1
As
 
Of 
 
8/26
 
For
 
Each
 
Year
      M       i       l       l       i     o     n      R     u     n     n       i     n
 
      B     a       l     e     s
 
Prices Almost Double InJust 18 Months
405060708090100
    F   e    b .    0    9   A   p   r .    0    9   J   u   n .    0   A   u   g  .    0    9   O   c    t .    0    9    D   e   c    0    9    F   e    b .    1   0   A   p   r .    1   0   J   u   n    1   0   A   u   g  .    1   0
    C   e   n   t   s    p   e   r    P   o   u   n    d
A-Index Prices
 With growth in foreign demand outpacing supply, the United States has record early-season forwardsales. As India has just announced that it will retain export restrictions in 2010/11, and southernhemisphere countries, like Australia and Brazil, have committed most of their recent harvest, importershave turned to the United States in order to secure nearby supplies.In the cotton market, prices are sensitive to the size of global stocks. With world use again estimated toexceed production, world stocks are now expected to drop by 25 percent since the 2008/09 season.Foreign stocks relative to use will fall to the lowest levels since the mid 1990’s. The United States hasbeen especially responsive to the surge in prices. Planted acreage has jumped 20 percent this year, andwith improved yields, the U.S. consequently has greater supplies for export throughout the year.
 
 
Monthly
 
Average
 
Cotton
 
Prices
0102030405060708090100
Mar-08May-08Jul-08Sep-08Nov-08Jan-09Mar-09May-09Jul-09Sep-09Nov-09Jan-10Mar-10May-10Jul-10Sep-10
   U   S   c  e  n   t  s   /   l   b  s
A-Index Spot Price
 Price
U.S. spot prices continue to rise on strong foreign demand prospects. The A-Index for2009/10 was not quoted in July due to the lack of availability of old crop cotton. The A-Index for August averaged 90.35 cents/lbs, the highest since October 1995.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2010/11Major Exporters:
 
United States
is raised 500,000 bales to 15.5 million as foreign demand grows.
 
India
is lowered 1.5 million bales to 5 million because of government restrictionson cotton exports.
 
Australia
is raised 500,000 bales to 2.5 million because improved productionprospects will allow more exports.
 
 
Brazil
is raised 300,000 bales to 2.2 million to meet their commitments forexports.
 
Tanzania
is lowered 125,000 bales on lower production.
 
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
 September 2010
 
Major Importers
 
China
is raised by 250,000 bales to 12.75 million because of reduced productionin 2009/10 and 2010/11.
 
Bangladesh
is lowered by 100,000 bales due to limitations on available supplies
 
 
Brazil
is raised 300,000 bales to 900,000 in order to meet increased consumptionand export commitments
 
 
Pakistan
is lowered 500,000 bales due to lower consumption..
 
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
 September 2010

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