Энергия XXI века и необходимостъ в

управлении ядерно-
технологическими знаниями

Янко Янев
Программа по управлению
ядерными знаниями
Содержание:

1. Энергия и развитие.
2. Ядернoе знание и ядерная
энергия.
3. Управление ядерными
знаниями и програма
МАГАТЕ.
4. QUO VADIS?
 Энергия и Развитие
 The Great energy milestones:

 Big oil era began in 1901

 Electricity replaced coal, gas and kerosene
generated light
 Internal combustion engine created cars
 Middle East oil created “cheap oil forever”
 Atomic energy created electricity ”too
cheap to meter”
 Piping natural gas created miracle of
energy heat

 Wind and Solar are promising an “energy

paradise” for all
Энергия и Развитие

Human Development Index

F(GDP, LE, EDU)

█ over 0.95 █ 0.75-0.799 █ 0.55-0.599 █ 0.35-0.399

█ 0.90-0.949 █ 0.70-0.749 █ of 0.50- █ 0.30-0.349
█ 0.85-0.899 █ 0.65-0.699 0.54 █ <0.30
█ 0.80-0.849 █ 0.60-0.649 █ of 0.45- █ N/A
0.49
█ 0.40-0.449
 Мировое потребление энергии
18 000
Solar
16 000
Hydro
Mtoe

14 000
Nuclear
12 000
10 000 Biomass

8 000 Gas

6 000 Coal
4 000 Oil
2 000
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 – an average rate of
increase of 1.6% per year – with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise
Цены не идут
вниз!
Энергетические диспропрции
 Сценарии
и
предсказания

World population
 Энергетические требования
1. Meeting dramatically increased energy, and
especially electricity, demand throughout the
industrialized and developing world

2. Assuring security and minimizing conflict

associated with energy supply, and

3. Reducing atmospheric pollution and emissions

of greenhouse gases
 DESPERATE ACCELERATING ONGOING
ENERGY NEED GROWTH DEMAND
Климат меняется??

W
o
r
l
d
 Другие изменения??

 Climate change is
affecting storm
tracks, winds and
temperature patterns

 Anthropogenic
forcing has likely
contributed
Цена за чистой
енергии
Сможеть ли ядерная
энергия решить
пробему?
Развитие ядерной энергетики
Pазвитие ядерной энергетики
Технологичское развитие ядерной
энергетики
 Мировой ядерно энергетический
потенциал
Timeline of first Chicago pile

400
industrial NPPs Developing countries 1950
EBR-1
350 Nautilus Obninsk (USSR)

Calder Hall (UK)

Shippingport (USA)
G2 (Fra nce)
300
Lenin
Vak Kahl (Germany)
BR-3 (Belgium)
1960
NPD (Canada)
Japan / RKO
JPDR (Japan) Latina (Italy)
Agesta (Sweden)

250 Dodewaard (NL) Jose Cabrera-1 (Spain)

FSU / EE
Bezna u-1 (Switzerland ) Tarapur (India)
1970
Kanupp (Pakistan)
GW(e)

Bohunice (C zechoslovakia)
Atuc ha-1 (Argentina)
200 Kozloduy (B ulgaria)

Loviisa-1 (Finla nd)

Western Europe
Kori-1 (ROK) 100 GW
3 M ile Island accident
1980
150 Angra-1 (Bra zil) Krsko (Yugosla via)
Paks-1 (Hungary)
200 GW Koeberg (S. Africa)
Chernobyl accident

100 300 GW
Laguna Verde-1 (Me xico)
1990

North America
Gua ngdong-1 (Chi na)
50 Cernavoda-1 (Roma nia)

2000
0 360 GW

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

NA WE Russia & EE Japan & ROK Developing

 Страны желающие подключиться к
ядерной энергетике

Number of countries in TC projects

50 Regional National

60 Consider NP in energy mix;

12 Prepare NP programmes;
20 New countries might have a NPP
in operation by 2030
10
Operating
Considering 20 3 December 2009
2000 2009
 Потребность ядерных
знании
 With a forthcoming high growth in nuclear
industry worldwide, maintaining nuclear
competencies both in industry and nuclear
regulatory authorities will be the most
critical challenge in the near future.
 Governments and the nuclear industry have
already recognized the critical role of
qualified human resources in the nuclear
energy field.
Ядерное знание капитал требующий
эффективного управления

Asset Classes: Industry

Knowledge
Physical Capital
- Equipment/Hardware Corporate and
Technology Capital Executive Knowledge

- IT/Process Knowledge
Human Capital
- People Nuclear Processes / Manager
and Supervisor Knowledge

Front line / Craftsperson / Skilled Labor

Knowledge

A resource which was created by absorbing other resources,

Has its own cost .Has to be managed in an efficient and effective
manner to help to reach organizational or national goals.
23 23
 Критические проблемы
управления знаниями
 How to retain existing skills and competences for the
long period during which a plant is operating, especially when
facilities in that country may be at the end of the life cycle and
no additional facilities are foreseen in the near future.
 How to develop new skills and competences in areas
such as decommissioning and radioactive waste management,
which may be viewed as "sunset" activities and therefore
unattractive to young people.
 How to support a revival of nuclear power in countries
wishing to do so, with an ageing workforce and declining
programs.
 Потребности стран
 A. Countries with established nuclear
education infrastructure and mature but
stagnant nuclear industry,
 B. Countries with established nuclear
education infrastructure and growing nuclear
industry
 C. Countries lacking NE infrastructure but
having ambitious development plans,
 D. Countries having no nuclear development
ambitions.
Образование и Управление
знаниями
 Any high-tech industry runs
on two tracks:
 Competent human resource
 Effective KM strategies

Education and Knowledge

Management are two
sides of the same coin.
 Знания небходимые для развития
ядерной энергетики
Chemistry
Environment Calculation code
Signal processing Instrumentation
Radiation Control and
Design, protection Indus. Info.
4% 2%
Process 2% 15% Safety,
Thermohydraulics 10% Fuel,
Neutron Physics

14%

Operations

25%
11%

Metallurgy,
6%
11% Structure of Materials,
Electromechanical Civil
Non intrusive Control
Engineering Engineering
 Роль МАГАТЕ
 The role for the Agency is to assist in the
transfer of knowledge from “centres of
competence” to the “centres of growth”.

 Potentially high risk of knowledge loss and

additional cost for future generations must
be avoided, and the Agency can help to
integrate this long-term aspect into today's
strategic decisions.
 Nuclear Education and Training ?
29
QUO VADIS – Куда мы идем?

 When Saint Peter met Jesus

as he was running from
being crucified in Rome,
Peter asked Jesus the
question – Quo vadis?
 Jesus answered, "I am going
to Rome to be crucified
again“.
 This prompted Peter to gain
the courage to continue his
ministry and eventually
become a martyr.
Мой ответ на энергетический
вызов
 Increase efficiency in electricity generation
and use;
 Expand use of renewable energy sources such
as wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal;
 Demonstrate carbon capture at coal electric
generating plants and permanently sequester
the carbon and,
 Scale up the use of nuclear power.
Роль ядерной энергетики

 Nuclear power is the most scaleable cost

competitive source of non carbon electricity.
 Whether or not North America and Europe
will expand nuclear power, China , India and
the rest of the world will, for a cost effective
reduction of greenhouse gases.
 Nuclear power alone will not take us where
we want to be but we will not make it
without nuclear power!
Основные принципы развития
Польза
Benefits outweigh costs and risks
Open/transparent communication of all facets
Ответственость
People and environment are protected
Limit risk of proliferation and malicio
Устойчивое развитие
Long-term commitment
Efficient in using resources
Continuous improvement in technology
Управление знаниями

3 December 2009
Спасибо,

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