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37399421 Nomura Global Economics Strategy Sep2010

37399421 Nomura Global Economics Strategy Sep2010

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Nomura Global Economics and Strategy8 September 2010
Global Economics and Strategy
 
September 2010
The coming surge in food prices
 Even with lacklustre growth in advanced economies, another multi-year surge in food prices is likely given rapidly growing demand forfood in the developing world, constraints and uncertaintiessurrounding food supply and the development of increasinglypowerful feedback loops.
 We construct a Nomura Food Vulnerability Index for 80 countries.
 We also discuss: Macro implications, trading recommendationsfrom our fixed income and equity strategy teams and specific stockideas.
The coming surge in food prices
Economists
Rob Subbaraman
+852 2536 7435rob.subbaraman@nomura.com
Sonal Varma
+91 22 4037 4087sonal.varma@nomura.com
Strategists
Sean Darby
+852 2252 2182sean.darby@nomura.com
Owen Job
+44 20 7103 4849owen.job@nomura.com
See the important disclosures and analyst certifications on pages 78 to 81.
 
 Nomura Global Economics and Strategy 1The coming food price surge8 September 20108 September 2010
Foreword
This publication underscores Nomura’s dedication to undertaking thematic research on globalissues. We hope to inform our clients’ thinking on key issues and provide a framework for ourshort- to medium-term economic and market forecasts.Nomura is the largest global investment bank in Asia and has also invested heavily in researchresources around the world. As such, Nomura has over 30 economists across all major regions;an Equity Research Department with 170 writing analysts covering more than 1,700 listed stocks;and a Fixed Income Research team with approximately 150 client-facing analysts.Our clients have noticed this investment and their support has been reflected in the recent
Institutional Investor 
magazine surveys, where Nomura’s equity research teams ranked #1 inChina and Japan and #2 in Asia and Europe.In an increasingly globalized world, clients benefit from Nomura’s focus on cross-region andcross-division collaboration among our research teams. This is critical to providing fullyintegrated products with consistent top-down views. Some recent examples include: 
The Ascent of Asia  
(February 2010); 
(April2010); 
 (June 2010); and 
(July 2010).With this latest report – 
The coming food price surge 
– our economists, strategists and equityanalysts took a deep dive into the fundamentals surrounding the global demand and supply forfood. Our team concludes that food prices could be set for another multi-year surge. This reportexamines which economies are most vulnerable to rising food prices at the macro level and thenexplores the strategic implications for investors.Nomura looks forward to future studies that carry on the tradition of collaborative researchdesigned to give our clients investment insight and ideas on global thematic issues.Michael Guarnieri Paul NorrisGlobal Head of Fixed Income Research Global Head of Equity Research
 
 Nomura Global Economics and Strategy 2The coming food price surge8 September 20108 September 2010
Contents
Foreword
1
Executive summary
3
 A complex equation
4
 
The demand side
6
 The supply side
12
 Uncertainties and feedback loops
15
 
Macro impact and policy responses
20
 Nomura Food Vulnerability Index
25
 Fixed income trading implications
28
 Equity strategy implications
35
 
Latest company views
China Agri-Industries
56
 China Yurun Food
60
 United Phosphorus
64
 Wilmar International
68
 
Main references
72
 Appendices
73
 

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