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Analysis of Sheltering and Evacuation Strategies

Analysis of Sheltering and Evacuation Strategies

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Published by rlnac
Analysis of Sheltering and Evacuation Strategies for an Urban Nuclear Detonation Scenario
Larry D. Brandt, Ann S. Yoshimura
SANDIA REPORT
SAND2009-3299
Unlimited Release
Printed May 2009
Analysis of Sheltering and Evacuation Strategies for an Urban Nuclear Detonation Scenario
Larry D. Brandt, Ann S. Yoshimura
SANDIA REPORT
SAND2009-3299
Unlimited Release
Printed May 2009

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Published by: rlnac on Sep 14, 2010
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SANDIA REPORT
SAND2009-3299Unlimited ReleasePrinted May 2009
Analysis of Sheltering and EvacuationStrategies for an Urban NuclearDetonation Scenario
Larry D. Brandt, Ann S. Yoshimura
Prepared bySandia National LaboratoriesLivermore, California 94550Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation,a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’sNational Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.Approved for public release: further dissemination unlimited.
 
 
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Issued by Sandia National Laboratories, operated for the United States Department of Energy by Sandia Corporation.NOTICE: This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither theUnited States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, ortheir employees, make any warranty, express or implied, or assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represent that its use would notinfringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name,trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring bythe United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contractors or subcontractors. The views and opinionsexpressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of theircontractors.
 
 
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 SAND2009-3299Unlimited ReleasePrinted May 2009
Analysis of Sheltering and Evacuation Strategiesfor an Urban Nuclear Detonation Scenario
Larry D. BrandtAnn S. YoshimuraSandia National LaboratoriesP.O. Box 969Livermore, CA 94551-0969
Abstract
Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most importantplanning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area.This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario inLos Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urbanresponse plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robustprotection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and thefallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time cansubstantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristicsof the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analysesindicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experiencesignificant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.

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