'CCRET

iCONPIOENTIAL when
Enclosure removed. 1

TO: See Distribution Li.t~

FROM; EUR - Lawrence S. l!:aq .

SUBJECT: USC Policy toward TIlr ay

An interagency vorklng group meeting on USG poUcy

10; ill -" ;>' ·io;:r~ ~r;e!. wi~~ t~ :;;~~:!n~n oir~~:i~· ;~f!;;n~;
Room, R.:xl1ll~ MS. David C. Gompert will Chair the
meeting-. "~·of·S

The pl.lrp08e of the !LM'atlng is to build on the .ar1ier

Eastern Mediterranean IG atudy by pulling together .. null'lbar
oj! major iSSUII& currently cOming to 8 head in US-Turkish
ralationa.

The attached draft paper will se rve a. the fr.,...work

for the diBcusBion.

Plcalle give Jill! Williall\lJ on the Turkish De.k (632-1562)

the name lind title of your repre!lentative at thEa Septelllber 11
noeetin9·

DISTRIBUTION LIST:

DOD/OARD/ISP - Itt. Richard Perle

JCS ' - Lt. Gen. Paul S. Gorman
CIA -I ) 25X1
ICA - Hi. Terrenea Clltherman
T - Mr. Buckley
PM - Richard Burt
Itt.
EB - Mr. Robert O. Hormata
5/1' - Mr. 1',"1,11 woHowit:
INR - Ambassador Ronald Spiers
!lEA - Alnbaasador Nichola. A. Veliotes
~lSC - Mr. James Rentschler
Attachment:
Draft Paper .
SECRET
GOS~B7
State Dept, review completed

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I.portanea of Turkey In Global USC Stn.tesy

Geography and hiatory make Turkey II. cro • • road. of

fundlu.antel llSG •• curlty Inter •• te. Traditionally . Turkey he..

•• rved ua in the conte.t of tlA1'O and We.ta.,n Europe, 1 . •.••

,fellow de-ocrecy. the ••• tarn bulwark of the southern flank.

tbe guardian of the vital atralt •. Turke y i . alao an

ine:ltricloble paJ;"t of the fabric of Eastern Meditenanean

i •• u ••• It gr..atly infl ... e"c!!, usa policy ."ith ce.pect to

Greece and Cyprua; the f;onverae i. no Ie •• true. For thl.

The pa. t two year a heve gi .. en Turkey ... -"l a jor new 41 •• nalon
ot h lportance to the usc. Togeth e r, the ab:rupt c ••oval of our

of ailitery might in the 'rrene cauc •• ua, the downwu"d ap1ral of

the Irenian revolution, and the uncertain outcome ot the

Iran-Iraq war have moved Turkey to center . tege in usa

e tretegic planning for Southw• • t Ada. Beyond ita

trad1tional--and viteUy teportant--rola in NATO end Europe,

Turkey now hea at leeet the potential to becolla an anchor ot

the threet to and In Sout.hwe.t. .... ia. TI,e crucial ta . t to r USC

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protected by ""p.. nd.d coop.r.tion with th. I./SG and NATO in

deaUng with t.hat .1tuation .

W. ere e long way froe that paint, and ... lIay not fully

eucc ••d. Yet, Turk'y'e uDdeniable pot.ntial requir •• that w•

• ake a .aJ[imu.oo effort~ without d ....... ging Our other vital

intere.t.. Har e then any other COuntry- - inclucUng .egypt Ilnd

l.rael--Turkey has ..... t. wh ich, if aVailable to us, could b.

critical in IIIlteting a0!!l' of our SWA reGuireOl.ntu a

wall-dhclplin.d and coh.dv. military fore • • tructur'l a

. ub.tanti .. l n etwor k of in-plac' I./SG faciliU •• which could be

.:o;panaed and upgraded: geographic pro:o;i .. ity to SWA: and

r •• sonably good relation. with all r'gion .. l at.tea, including

lar•• 1. In addition, TUrk.y ha. a hiatory--with aor. wup.w

than wdown."-_of defenae cooP.ration with u. d .. ting back to

1941, and it .ha rea our cOlllaitJlent to .. s.tern vI:I.lus. end

POlitical .y.t ..... e, I:I.nd to NATO . How well We ... anage our

bilateral r.lation.hip with Ankc,r., including the conc.rn. the

Turk! de.lI. vitl:l.l to ~ int.ra:Jt., will in large part

det.rain. whuther the GOT will c1l00ae to work with uS in

defena. of mutually p'rcetv.., security intere.te in SWA.

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In USG atrate<Jio:: thinking. Turkey is both a r.lIl lIae.t and
a potentiel liabUity. In reo::.nt yeers, the o::ountry .hae

grappled Mith looming finano::ialleeono.lo:: collaplle, lIoo::lal

inetebility. politicel terrode .. abetted to eo.e degree troll
abroad, and inetitutional paraly.ie. The .Uitary tak,over of
Septellber 1980 brought tellporary relief and tor the .ollent

broke the haek of redio::el .ove.enta- -ino::luding Pro-i'lallie

on,.--wh1eh h.d <:OlIe to the tore in the 1970'. . It i. too

e.rly to judga whether tha t1;lnd .... ntal GOT reforea, now in

' Plao::e or in prOllpeo::t, ..:ill .uceeed. So.,., of thell--partiCUlarly

the eeonoille ataoilization prOgralll lind the lIIod"rnization ot th"

Turkiah torea atruetura--depend heavily on sustained high
level a ot external eupport. Aa tel' ell Weatern Europe ill
conc.rn.d • • 0lUlt1ng political criticl.e ot the Evran regi •• and
9 rowi "9 tinancial probl ••• callt doubt on whethar donor
govllrn_nu will continue to bear their ahare ot thi. burden.

F&11ure of the ambitlou. GOT retorm" could Produce a

diailludoned, cestahUh.ed Turkey lurching in direction.

1n11111cal to our intereet •• renewlld internal atrite; dritt .away

Cro. NATO end: We.tarn-lltyle governaent; align ..ent. with Middle
ElIlltern .tete. whiCh ."'pply oil and .arkat.; po •• ibly aven
neutnU •• growing out of an aceoQlodation with the USSR. Hone

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the ne ar terlil. In a negative way, however, they illuotratOl the
funda.,ental impo~tan<;,e of TurklSh atability, otrenqth,

western orient",tion to broa.d USG st ratog!c interestu.

II. The N"ture of the Turkish -A'... ri<;,a ... RelationShip

Dcllpito lIutual political valL:les and cOEllilitment to NATO, tha

Turki.h- AIIIerica.n rel!l~ionship hall ~ natural COnGtitu'ency in

terms of Ghare.::. history, econolllic: interdependence, ethnic or

falllily tie.. The abue nce of a "Turki.h 10bbyH in the United

States i. indicative. ,Co.lling out of differ e nt-_and, in 80m",

reupects, antithetical--tradi tion., the Turkish and AIIIeri<;'an

people. are largely ignorant or, if not indifferent to, e ach

other, This is certainly true in COlllpa rison to usa

relationship. with othe r allies, "uch a. Greece . It i , lesa

trua in cOlllplI.rison to USG relationship. with !lost other

countries in the world.

In any case, the Turklah-AIIIerican rel ation s hip resta on a

very narrow baae_ It Is prililarily /I. goverl1Jll.ent-to-goverl'llllsnt

tie defined in s ecurity tecElo, luapicion of, and opposition

to, the War.a ... Pllet. Thi. rellltiOllllhip lIutferll frolll a lega<;,y
of II.c<;'Ulllulated Turkiah mistrust arising frolll specific

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gri.vanc.e. the uni1et.ra1 withdra ..a1 ot the Jupiter lIieel1.e
in 1963, the John.cn letter of 1964, the USG re e t.raining role

1n t he Cyprue crieee of t.h e 196,) ' e and 1974 1 and t.he 1975- 1978

partial arlla embargo. Turkey also .hares all!.., conc.rn.,

st.lLlling frell r.cent. AIa.E"ican hiatory. that the USG lIay not be

a wholly r.1iab1. or predict.able partner.

At. all tilles, the. k.y · t.o t.he h.a1t.h of the T'urkish-Alaarlcan

r.lat.iocahip ill "·h~t.her Or not. the GOT percelvea t.hat t.he USG

i . =akilli a -b •• t effort- t.o ll.lp Turkey in all r •• pect • .

Beyon(l .crupulou. illlpl.lI.ntation of our obligat.ion. und.r the

1980 Oaf. n •• an(l £conolll1c Coop.n.tion Agre.llent. (DECA) , Turkey

••curity a.sistanc. on conc.s.ion"l t.er.,r;, un relll itting

political .uppo'rt. in ...... t.rn European and other donor cspit.al.,

"un<le rat.an(ling" of the GOT position on Greek-Turkish lssues.

and rhetorical comfo rt and. practical aid in (lea11ng with t.he

For t.he lIolient, t.he 001' parc .. ives t.hat. t.he Reagan

Adllinhtration i . IIIIk1ng lIuch • -b•• t. effort. " The " -1982

r;acurity aSSlatance is 56, high'lr than in FY-1981. We have

eff.ctlv.ly en<l aggre •• ivaly taken the lead.r.hip in the OECO

consortiulII IIn(l the NATO Ad. Hoe Group. W. heve ".igh"'d in

r"'p.ated.1y wi th the 1Mf'. the IBRD, the Sau(lta and other

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potentisl donors on Turkey' 6 bebslf. Because th e Turk6 view

our laborll ae a "beet etfort:~ we currently have sn excellent

b11" teral rellltionehip, perhaps the b e st 6i nce the 1950' 6 .

Given the naturl! of th e tie, however, thie s itu"t1on is

e:xtrelRely preC"rioUtl. It could end abruptly i f the USG fa11ed

to sustain the pace of pe r forlilanc e which the Turks need and

want. The GOT ie wa tching carefully to eee whether we can

deliver the FY-1982 a,id levels that have been propolled.

So long ae the Turk6 perceiVe a usa "bes t effort- in the

brolld . en.... the Turkiah-A..,ericlIn r .. lstionship will pl:oaper.

This gives us Ilt le"st the chance to achieve OUr .trategic

objectives fOI: Turkey, inclUding expanded Coopen.tion in sw....

Conversely, the bilatersl r e lllt ionship wOuld Suffer mlljor

d"m"ge in the event of s precipitous drop in level. of usa

security sssistllnce and political s upport . In the re sultant

cl i .. ste of diminished GOT confidence, other nettlesome

iBBUB,.- - e_g., Cengre6sional badgering On CyprUS, on relstions

with Greece, on the psce of return to democracy: and sn

Armenian niche in the prop06ed Holocau s t MU6eulll--would become

more contentious. We WOuld heve little prospect of echieving

Our fitrategie objeetives for 'I\lrkey--whether in the eOntext of

NATO. force mod ernill'lI tion. democratic and Iiltable government, or

coop ...:atlon in SWA.

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