Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Rukun Raharja oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas
Rukun Raharja oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas
3000
1250 the marine port services, and now is in a final process to change its
2900
1050 core business into integrated energy company by acquiring PT Panji
2800 850
Raya Alamindo (PRA), PT Triguna Internusa Pratama (TIP) and PT
2700
650
2600
Capital Turbines Indonesia (CTI). The acquisition shall be completed
450
2500 latest by the end of the third quarter, since RAJA is only waiting for the
250
2400
administrative process of acquisition – the deal has been accomplished
2300 50
Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 verbally. We are positive on the transformation decision. The three ac-
quired companies will lead RAJA to a healthier financial performance,
Source : Bloomberg
indeed in 2011; profit margin will surge to 10.55% compare to only
0.98%, prior to the acquisitions. Please note: FY2011 performance is
an appropriate benchmark as acquisition will take place in the late
Current Price (09/07/2010) : 790 2010.
52 Wk High (06/24/2010) : 1,500
52 Wk Low (09/07/2009) : 94 Attractive impact from transformation
YTD Change : 616
YTD % Change : 354.02
We are positive on RAJA decision to change its core business into inte-
Shares outstanding (Mn) : 679.514
grated energy company, mainly because the existing port marine busi-
Market capitalization ( IDR Bn) : 536.82
ness indicates a low potential growth with low profitability. The transfor-
Free Floating (Mn) : 291.78
mation will pump up RAJA’s financial performance and more impor-
Source : Bloomberg
tantly, it provides RAJA with enormous growth prospect in the foresee-
able future. The three acquired companies operate in the energy indus-
try which is an essential element for emerging market, Indonesia. PRA
Selected financial ratios and TIP generally supply the gas needs in the energy industry while
IDR bn 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CTI supply electricity needs in the power plant industry. We project that
EPS (IDR) 0.14 0.27 26 176 210
RAJA revenue and net profit in 2011 will boost up 53x and 718x, re-
DPS (IDR) - - - - - spectively.
BVPS (IDR) 102 102 129 305 515
PER (x) 5,642.86 2,925.93 29.97 4.48 3.76 Refinancing to enhance performance
PBV (x) 7.75 7.73 6.15 2.59 1.53
ROE 0.14% 0.27% 20.51% 57.86% 40.77% Shareholders’ decision to provide 0% interest loan in order to refinance
NPM 0.61% 1.10% 1.97% 10.55% 11.70% huge amount of debt from PRA and TIP will definitely increase the bot-
EBIT Margin 3.83% 1.68% 14.66% 21.54% 21.70% tom line of RAJA. The cost saving is expected to surge FY2011 net
Debt to equity 0.02 0.00 20.69 7.09 3.56 profit by 32% and 58.91% of PRA and TIP respectively. In addition, the
Source : Company & Ciptadana Estimates loan amounted to IDR303.59 billion indicates a high level of owners’
confidence on the positive prospect offered by RAJA’s transformation.
Besides, the generous intention from shareholders will trigger and put a
pressure to internal management to accomplish company’s objectives
and targets.
Fadil Kencana
Phone : (62-21) 255 74 820
Email : kencanafadil@ciptadana.com
PT. CIPTADANA SECURITIES , expressly disclaim any and all liability for representations or warranties expressed or implied, contained herein or omissions therefrom or for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise
arising in connection therewith. Opinions expressed in this report are our present views and are subject to change without notice.
SECURITIES
Valuation
We recommend BUY on RAJA with a target price of IDR 1,100, reflecting a 39.24%
upside potential from current price of IDR 790/share. Our target price is derived by
We set a targeted FY2011 PE OF
PE valuation method. To obtain a proper PE industry, we combine 2010 PE con-
6.16X, 65% discount from 13.68x
sensus of PGAS and 30% discount PE of India’s power plant industry. Then we
of the weighted PE industry
weighted based on the profit generated from both industry - 32% of power plant and
68% of PGAS. Thus, we set a targeted FY2011 PE of 6.16x – 55% discount from
13.68x of the weighted PE industry. 55% discount will be the reasonable discount
as we are aware of high liquidity risk and high leverage attached to RAJA. Please
note : Huge gap on discount rate might be decreased (target price increase) as
RAJA proves its good performance on quarter basis and the improvement on liquid-
ity risk.
Due to the acquisition, significant improvement will occur in 2010; however, in term
of margin, 2010F profit margin will stand relatively low. The acquisition taken place
in late 2010 will shrink a big portion of profit and then should be transferred to mi-
nority interest account – the accounting treatment regulation. Thus, we use 2011
EPS in order to derive our target price, as we believe that FY2011 result best re-
flects RAJA’s performance.
IDR Bio
1,400 11.70% 14.00%
10.55%
1,200 12.00%
1,000 10.00%
800 8.00%
600 6.00%
400 4.00%
1.14% 0.60% 0.98%
200 1.97% 2.00%
0 0.00%
2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F
IDR Bio
40.77%
160.00 45.00%
IDR Bio
300.00 19.49% 22.00%
18.88% 19.80%
19.20% 18.31%
250.00 20.00%
200.00 18.00%
150.00 16.00%
100.00 14.00%
50.00 12.00%
0.00 10.00%
2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
Revenue EBITDA EBITDA m argin
EHK supplies, distributes, and sells Natural Gas from Pertamina, ConocoPhillips,
and Adora to PLN Jambi and West Java industrial estate. Both the supplier and the
customer are trust-worthy players in the industry. Pertamina is the main natural gas
supplier in Indonesia while PLN is the leader of Indonesia’s power plant industry.
Thus, by becoming the mediator between trust-worthy suppliers and customers,
EHK operates its business in a less risky market.
By Q2 2011, EHK is planning to add gas transport of 25 MMSCFD through its pipe-
line with toll fee compensates from PLN. This expansion will surge gross profit by
The expansion will increase 29.45% in 2012 to IDR 263.27 billions from IDR 203.37 billions in 2010. Profit mar-
EHK gross profit by 29.45% with gin is also expected to increase from 9.35% in 2010 to 12.81% in 2012 (figure 4).
a profit margin of 12.81% in Beside, the expansion will be more economical. EHK will not spend any expenses
2012 related to the construction of new machine or pipeline infrastructure, as currently
the total capacity of natural gas is 77.00 MMSCFD with the gas supplied to existing
customers are 38.70MMSCFD – idle 38.3 MMSCFD.
IDR Bio
12.81%
800.00 14.00%
9.35% 10.95%
700.00 12.00%
600.00
10.00%
500.00
8.00%
400.00
6.00%
300.00
4.00%
200.00
100.00 2.00%
- 0.00%
2010F 2011F 2012F
Gross profit Revenue Profit Margin
6
Source : Company & Ciptadana Estimates
TIP operates in a quite similar business with EHK; However, TIP distributes LPG
(Liquefied Petroleum Gas) instead of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas). In additions, TIP
also serves gas compression for PLN power plant. TIP handles minor and major
projects from local to national level to satisfy the clients’ budget and timely sched-
ule. With existing and potential projects in progress, supported by expected in-
TIP shall record impressive creasing in toll fee rate from US$0.4/MSCF to US$0.6/MSCF in 2011, we believe
profit margin due to refinancing that TIP provides reasonable growth in a secure market. Existing customers of TIP
and expected increase in toll fee are PLTGU Cilegon and Odira Energi Persada. Figure 4.1 shows TIP performance
rate until 2014. The robust increase in 2011 is due to refinancing debt and expected
increase in toll fee. We forecast a conservative projection model with a constant toll
fee rate of US$0.6/MSCF onward from 2011 to 2014 and only include existing pro-
ject in our model. Hence, in terms of revenue, profit and margin, there will be no
significant changes. However, stable profit margins of beyond 44% in 2011 onward
are impressive achievement.
IDR Bio
90.00 45.5% 44.9% 45.6% 50.0%
44.3%
80.00 45.0%
70.00 40.0%
21.0%
35.0%
60.00
30.0%
50.00
25.0%
40.00
20.0%
30.00
15.0%
20.00 10.0%
10.00 5.0%
- 0.0%
2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
Revenue Profit Profit m argin
IDR Bio
200.00 80.00%
180.00 70.00%
66.99%
160.00
47.99% 60.00%
140.00
44.42%
120.00 50.00%
0.00 0.00%
2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
Refinancing effect
10
EQUITY SALES
Head of Sales
John Herry Teja
Phone : (62-21) 255 74 808
Email : tejajohn@ciptadana.com
Lindeteves Surabaya
Wiwi Wijaya Imelda Soetikno
Phone : (62-21) 622 00360 Phone : (62-31) 534 3938
Email : wijayawiwi@ciptadana.com Email : soetiknoimelda@ciptadana.com
Pluit Semarang
Ferry Ishak Lusiana Permatasari
Phone : (62-21) 666 96 688 Phone : (62-24) 352 1199
Email : ishakferry@ciptadana.com Email : permatasarilusiana@ciptadana.com
Bogor Medan
Daud Dirgahayu Juliawaty
Phone : (62-251) 836 2255 Phone : (62-61) 4555 600
Email : dirgahayudaud@ciptadana.com Email : juliawaty@ciptadana.com
11
SECURITIES
HEAD OFFICE - JAKARTA
PT CIPTADANA SECURITIES
Plaza ASIA (d/h. ABDA)
Office Park unit 2
Jl. Jend. Sudirman kav. 59
Jakarta 12190
Phone : (62-21) 255 74 800
Fax : (62-21) 255 74 900
Email : research@ciptadana.com
Website : http://www.ciptadana.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities men-
tioned herein or of the same issuer and options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opin-
ions contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. No rep-
resentation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by CIPTADANA SECURITIES or any other member of the Ciptadana
Capital, including any other member of the Ciptadana Group of Companies from whom this document may be received, as to the
accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment
as of this date and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or
estimates. The information in this document is subject to change without notice; its accuracy is not guaranteed; and it may be
incomplete or condensed.
12