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Global Warming

Global Warming

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Published by: Edward Araneta Queipo on Sep 19, 2010
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01/30/2011

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Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 26 2000 157–168www.elsevier.nl
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 jpetscieng
Global warming — facts, assessment, countermeasures
Dagobert G. Kessel
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German Petroleum Institute, Walther-Nernst-Strasse 7, D-38678 Clausthal-Zellerfeld, Germany
Received 12 December 1998; accepted 15 December 1999
Abstract
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Global primary energy consumption amounts to 8.38 billion tonnes oil equivalent OE 1996 and is projected toincrease by 1.3% per year for the industrialized countries and by up to 9.2% per year for the developing countries. Fossilenergy’s share was 7.541 billion tonnes OE in 1996 with rising tendency. The order of magnitude of proved reserves of 
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fossil energy sources is 950 billion tonnes OE 1996 , and certain present probable and possible reserves will become provedones in the years to come. Fossil energy will, therefore, remain the number one energy source until far into the next century.
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The use of fossil energy produced 23.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide CO in 1996 with oil and gas contributing about
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60% to this figure. It is estimated that continued use of fossil energy will lead to an increase of the average globaltemperature by 1.0–3.5
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C in the coming 50–100 years. Though the forecasts of future CO -emissions from fossil energy use
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as well as the magnitude of their influence on global warming are much disputed, the impact of CO -emissions on global
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warming itself is widely admitted. There is much dissense on the climatic consequences of global warming. It cannot beruled out, however, that these consequences may be detrimental to mankind. This has in a sense of a
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no regret policy
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triggered substantial activity worldwide to decrease emission of greenhouse gases, especially of CO , and various attempts
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have been made to set binding limits for the emission of these gases. The harmonized worldwide implementation of CO -reduction strategies is, however, far from being realized. OECD-countries have made substantial progress in applying
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these strategies. Nevertheless, the contribution of the industrialized countries to worldwide CO -emissions is still over-pro-
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portionally large. The cost of developing and applying CO -reduction technologies are tremendous and prohibitive for most
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of the emerging economies. There is an obligation of the industrialized countries in their own interest to develop and makeavailable these technologies wherever they are needed. The cost
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efficiency ratio of CO -reduction measures must be a
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decisive criterion for their application. There are serious obstacles, though, to reducing CO -emissions while satisfying the
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energy needs of our world, e.g. lacking international harmonization, national needs and egoisms, rapid growth of worldpopulation and strongly increasing energy demand of emerging economies. In summing up, though an anthropogeniccontribution to global warming cannot be proved for the time being, it cannot be ruled out forever. Therefore, internationallyharmonized measures for CO -reduction have to be taken in the sense of a
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no regret policy
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to avert potential damage from
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mankind and, thus, contribute in this sense to a sustainable development with fossil energy.
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2000 Elsevier Science B.V.All rights reserved.
Keywords:
global warming; greenhouse effect; CO -emissions; global temperatures; climate models; fossil energy
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Fax:
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49-5323-711200.0920-4105
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$ - see front matter
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2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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PII: S0920-4105 00 00030-9
 
( ) D.G. Kessel
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 Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 26 2000 157–168
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1. Introduction
Fossil energy sources today contribute 90% toworldwide primary energy consumption with oil andnatural gas being the dominant sources with morethan 60%. It is inevitable that using these resourcesaffects our environment in many ways, some beingonly short-term events, others however of long-termimportance.In this article, the most persistent problem of fossil energy use, the generation of carbon dioxide asinevitable end product of all energetic use of oil,natural gas, and coal, is discussed.The anthropogenic CO is supposed to be respon-
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sible for the warming of the earth’s atmosphere bythe so-called greenhouse effect. It is feared that thiswarming might lead to a non-sustainable develop-ment of the earth. The existence of the greenhouseeffect was first postulated by ARRHENIUS in 1896.According to his hypothesis, specific gases in theatmosphere of the earth, in the first place watervapor, but also carbon dioxide, methane, di-nitrogenoxide, ozone, and halogenated hydrocarbons, permit
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the transmission of the sun’s radiation short wave-
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lengths but not that of the long wavelength infraredradiation reflected by the surface of the earth. With-out this naturally occurring effect, the average tem-perature of the earth’s surface would be
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18
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C ascompared to its real value of 15
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C. This naturalgreenhouse effect is beneficial, since it forms thebasis for the great variety of plant and animal life onearth. Where it is too strong or too weak, life cannotexist. Examples exist in our planetary system: TheMartian atmosphere contains too little carbon diox-ide which results in a temperature of about
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60
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C.The atmosphere of the Venus contains too muchcarbon dioxide contributing to a temperature of about
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430
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C!Besides these naturally produced greenhousegases, there are so-called anthropogenic gases gener-ated by human activities, in the first place carbondioxide, but also methane and other gases. The emis-sion of these gases by industry, traffic, power plants,home heating, and burning of tropical forests createsthe so-called anthropogenic greenhouse effect.It is generally accepted that an increasing atmo-spheric concentration of these anthropogenic gaseswill lead to an increase of the global temperature.There are, however, widely differing opinions on themagnitude of this increase and on its impact on theglobal climate. There is growing concern that theanthropogenic greenhouse effect — if it indeed doesexist might lead to a non-sustainable develop-ment of the earth’s climate with negative conse-quences for mankind. Fig. 1 shows the contributionsof the above mentioned greenhouse gases to thenatural and the anthropogenic greenhouse effect ac-cording to the view of some Austrian scientists. The
Fig. 1. Contribution of different gases to greenhouse effect.
 
( ) D.G. Kessel
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 Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 26 2000 157–168
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Fig. 2. World fossil energy consumption 1988–1996 yearly increase
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decrease .
large bandwidths indicate the substantial uncertain-ties involved.This article will not and cannot give an undis-puted answer to whether or not the continued use of fossil energy as the main contribution to the anthro-pogenic greenhouse effect will lead to a non-sus-tainable development.It will, however, critically assess the presentlyexisting knowledge on whether or not an anthro-pogenic influence on the global temperature can beproved and discuss the consequences which have tobe drawn from this situation together with the prob-lems to be solved.
2. Present situation, forecasts, trends
Fig. 2 displays the development of the globalprimary energy consumption from 1988 to 1996. Itshows a generally increasing trend, which is onlytemporarily interrupted by the economic change in
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Eastern Europe BP Statistical Review of World
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Energy, 1997 .
Fig. 3. Increase of world fossil energy consumption 1992–2010.

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