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FOR RELEASE: SEPTEMBER 21, 2010
CORBETT HAS BIG LEAD IN PENNSYLVANIA GOVERNOR¶S RACE,QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;INDEPENDENT VOTERS BACK REPUBLICAN 2-1
Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett holds a 54 ± 39 percent lead over Democrat DanOnorato, the Allegheny County Executive, in the race to become Pennsylvania¶s next governor,fueled by a 56 ± 29 percent margin among independent voters, according to a QuinnipiacUniversity poll of likely voters released today.Corbett also leads Onorato when it comes to rebuilding the state¶s economy, handling its budget problems and sharing voters¶ values, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack)University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. This is the first general election surveyof likely voters in Pennsylvania in this election cycle and cannot be compared to earlier surveysof registered voters.Only 7 percent of voters say they are undecided while 16 percent of Corbett backers and22 percent of Onorato supporters say they might change their mind before Election Day, makingCorbett¶s competitive position slightly stronger.Corbett leads Onorato 88 ± 9 percent among Republicans and trails 84 ± 10 percent amongDemocrats. There is a yawning gender gap, with Corbett winning men 65 ± 29 percent andOnorato ahead among women 52 ± 39 percent.³Attorney General Tom Corbett is in strong position to be Pennsylvania¶s next governor. Not only is his lead substantial, but his supporters are slightly less likely to say they might changetheir minds than are Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato¶s,´ said Peter Brown, assistantdirector of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. ³Only 7 percent of voters are undecided.So Onorato must win all of those voters and convert Corbett supporters as well.´
-more-Peter Brown, Assistant Director,Quinnipiac University Polling Institute(203) 582-5201Rubenstein Associates, Inc.Public RelationsContact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026
 
 
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Quinnipiac University Poll/September 21, 2010 ± page 2
³An Onorato victory probably would require a sea change among independent voters whoare now strongly in Corbett¶s camp and often are the group that decides elections,´ Brown added.Corbett¶s lead in the horse race is matched by the difference in voter opinions of the twocandidates. Onorato¶s favorable/unfavorable ratio with likely voters is 40 ± 24 percent with 33 percent saying they haven¶t heard enough about him to form an opinion. Corbett gets a 51 ± 21 percent favorability while 27 percent haven¶t formed an opinion. Among the key voting bloc,independents, Corbett has a 50 ± 17 percent favorability rating, while Onorato has a 33 ± 29 percent score.³Gov. Ed Rendell isn¶t exactly helping Onorato¶s cause. Likely voters disapprove 57 ± 35 percent of the job Rendell is doing. In an election year that is showing strong signs of having ananti-incumbent, anti-Democratic tide, Onorato¶s party tie to the unpopular incumbent may be a problem,´ said Brown.Corbett leads Onorato on issue and character questions:
y
 
48 ± 38 percent that he would do a better job rebuilding the state¶s economy;
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48 ± 38 percent that he would better handle the state budget;
y
 
49 ± 38 percent that the Republican most shares their values.Only 2 percent of likely voters say they are ³very satisfied´ with the way things are goingin Pennsylvania today, while 34 percent are ³somewhat satisfied.´ A total of 64 percent are³somewhat dissatisfied´ or ³very dissatisfied.´³This election is playing out across a pessimistic electorate. When voters are unhappywith the status quo they look for change and since the two best known Democrats ± PresidentBarack Obama and Gov. Ed Rendell ± are not on the ballot this year, they are taking their frustrations out on any other Democratic target, and that is Dan Onorato,´ said Brown.From September 15 ± 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 684 Pennsylvania likelyvoters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts publicopinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and thenation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed± http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, orfollow us onTwitter.
 
1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates wereDan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? (Ifundecided q1) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Onorato or Corbett? Thistable includes "Leaners".LIKELY VOTERS.........................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men WomOnorato 39 9 84 29 29 52Corbett 54 88 10 56 65 39SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - -DK/NA 7 2 5 13 5 91a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change yourmind before the election?LIKELY VOTERS.........CAND CHOICE Q1Tot DO TCMade up 79% 77% 81%Might change 19 22 16DK/NA 2 1 32. (If Onorato voter q1) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Onorato or against Corbett?(*Subgroup not large enough to report)LIKELY ONORATO VOTERS.................Tot *Rep Dem Ind Men WomFor Onorato 67 72 59 61 72Against Corbett 26 25 28 34 21DK/NA 6 3 13 5 73. (If Corbett voter q1) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Corbett or against Onorato?(*Subgroup not large enough to report)LIKELY CORBETT VOTERS.................Tot Rep *Dem Ind Men WomFor Corbett 73 78 67 74 69Against Onorato 17 16 20 16 18DK/NA 11 6 13 10 134. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enoughabout him?LIKELY VOTERS.........................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men WomFavorable 40 19 76 33 34 49Unfavorable 24 38 5 29 30 16Hvn't hrd enough 33 40 18 35 34 32REFUSED 3 2 1 3 2 3
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