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Published by jmicek
Quinnipiac University U.S. Senate Poll for PA2010
Quinnipiac University U.S. Senate Poll for PA2010

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Published by: jmicek on Sep 22, 2010
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Republican Pat Toomey has hit the magic 50 percent mark as he leads Democratic U.S. Rep. JoeSestak 50 ± 43 percent in the race for Pennsylvania¶s U.S. Senate seat, according to a QuinnipiacUniversity poll of likely voters released today.Pennsylvania likely voters disapprove 56 ± 40 percent of the job President Barack Obamais doing, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by liveinterviewers, finds. This first general election survey of Pennsylvania likely voters in thiselection cycle cannot be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.By a 52 ± 43 percent margin, voters want a U.S. Senator who opposes rather than supportsthe president¶s policies and say 46 ± 35 percent they want Republicans, rather than Democrats, tocontrol the U.S. Senate after the November ballots are counted.Toomey is winning 86 ± 9 percent among Republicans and losing 87 ± 7 percent amongDemocrats. He holds a commanding 54 ± 36 percent lead among independent voters, which provides his current lead overall.There is a very large gender gap in the Senate race, with Toomey ahead among male likelyvoters 58 ± 37 percent and trailing among women likely voters 51 ± 40 percent. The gender gapon the president¶s job performance is even wider with women approving 50 ± 43 percent, whilemen disapprove by more than two-to-one, 66 ± 31 percent.³Pat Toomey is in a good place, ahead by 7 points with six weeks to go. ButCongressman Joe Sestak has proven himself a tough competitor so it¶s too early to order thechampagne,´ said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
-more-Peter Brown, Assistant Director,Quinnipiac University Polling Institute(203) 582-5201Rubenstein Associates, Inc.Public RelationsContact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026
Quinnipiac University Poll/September 22, 2010 ± page 2
³Toomey¶s lead among independents is why he is ahead. With only 7 percent of the likelyvoters undecided and another 14 percent who are for a candidate saying they might change their mind, the battle for the Senate seat appears likely to come down to a relatively small number of voters and in the final weeks expect the campaigns to target their messages for those undecidedand softly committed voters,´ Brown added.The candidates are evenly matched when it comes to voter opinion: By a 44 ± 31 percentmargin, voters have a favorable opinion of Toomey, while 23 percent don¶t know enough abouthim to form an opinion.Sestak gets a 44 ± 34 percent favorability, while 20 percent haven¶t formed an opinion.³Among likely voters, President Barack Obama is a drag on Sestak¶s candidacy,´ saidBrown. ³The president has a low approval rating and voters want their new senator to oppose,rather than support, the president¶s policies.´By 47 ± 41 percent, likely Pennsylvania voters say Toomey rather than Sestak shares their values. And 41 percent of all voters say ³shared values´ is the most important quality they seek in a candidate, while 25 percent cite the ability to bring change to Washington. Another 23 percent are looking for someone who is honest and trustworthy and 7 percent want the candidatewith the right experience.Pennsylvania likely voters are strongly negative on the federal health care overhaul passed by Congress and signed into law by President Obama last March. By 59 ± 34 percent, including63 ± 32 percent among independents, they give the plan thumbs down.On the war in Afghanistan likely voters say the United States is doing the right thingfighting there, 49 ± 42 percent. Support for the Obama policy is stronger among Republicans,who back the war 61 ± 29 percent, while Democrats oppose it 56 ± 37 percent. Independentssupport the war by a narrow 49 ± 44 percent.From September 15 ± 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 684 Pennsylvania likelyvoters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts publicopinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and thenation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed± http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, orfollow us onTwitter.
6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidateswere Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Sestak or Toomey? Thistable includes "Leaners".LIKELY VOTERS.........................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men WomSestak 43 9 87 36 37 51Toomey 50 86 7 54 58 40SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - -WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - -DK/NA 7 4 7 10 5 96a. (If candidate choice q6) Is your mind made up, or do you think you mightchange your mind before the election?LIKELY VOTERS.........CAND CHOICE Q2Tot JS PTMade up 85% 84% 86%Might change 14 15 14DK/NA 1 1 -7. (If Sestak voter q6) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Sestak or against Toomey?(*Subgroup not large enough to report)LIKELY SESTAK VOTERS..................Tot *Rep Dem Ind Men WomFor Sestak 64 69 58 61 67Against Toomey 30 25 35 36 24DK/NA 6 6 7 3 88. (If Toomey voter q6) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Toomey or against Sestak?(*Subgroup not large enough to report)LIKELY TOOMEY VOTERS..................Tot Rep *Dem Ind Men WomFor Toomey 73 77 65 73 73Against Sestak 18 14 26 19 17DK/NA 9 9 9 9 109. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enoughabout him?LIKELY VOTERS.........................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men WomFavorable 44 71 12 46 51 35Unfavorable 31 6 62 27 28 34Hvn't hrd enough 23 22 24 25 20 28REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 2

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