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:' ':, :WQ.en~s.t. 'D~QI8-"~'Sdecapl.ta·te~~ be'ls, 8I.1ppq$.&a~"to .. :~,,~·.·/:~;, ':,'.:' have plcl;ted upl;11~tJtead-'-a'nd,~s_l-.~,!,i.':Rfr:~1 th 1 t •. , T~1.LJ9,d: ::". :,:~~'~":,o:I:-:T':, his custQd1an···to' ccmnent~-~~Dan8' de~-08$'pal'e118, oe"ri rest"C~--"'·'~-:-,:~-:·,.':L~.'"';:' Que le pxoem1er .~.I3 .. qulooate. u. ,Unfor,tu~telY,- thl$':ma~lm,:.,:·',',:_-,":,<' "

, ~ oe s not: seem- to_;:appli_,i~:o~:l-~al!~tl':ch:' 1 n:~l--ap~lo~.qlQ_~~~~,~:,J;!~":~:~::'~;:j?;~~:~;::~/::: .: . extra sen~OrF.-7 P.$~~ep119JJ=(~gr:~~f!~!f"':~ ~,lLot~entjjl~":'.:::~;;;~,~· .• ~".;.:~ ',', ~mportani)e;· and -tuQdamantal.~Q'l:n,.f!_~~," ~.~e. " n,evep , e~8Y ... t-Q;~ : ., :~'-.~'t,~--:::~:~;:.\:":;,:.~ , $01 ve. ~u t a 'l8I'ge=-b()~y~- 9f,-:,t}-yt'deh.¢EF: has-: been ~aa!)Uc_e!~.i:.l,n~~=:_, ~~-:;'~~Y~''''-i':;-~-k~ , ,favor of', the_~xiatefio:e~:::-o.r;_§~~ ,_and wh!le'.,th1,8;_e·,'10e,n.9_tLn.~~; ,2::;:~.'.:,::~/.L~ ~et t most ec lentlats ", I.1noonv tn'oed', theri"l~el'al~elQeg~'=-~',," ':.: '.--;:'-::-_::

, ~hat fux-ther r..eseal'ch.,..1s-jtJ§_~_1_tl_~Q~~J_~~~ aurTel,,()-r,-'A"9~,'·':·~~':~.~~' re 11oYfl3 9r the-Amer~oan =Psyc bol ogl 081- As'~ 1& t 1 on~OQl~"'~''-'-:':/ ,'. " .. ~ .. ,{j~ 17% sald' the t ,'l!2P~1'1i,8 :._8n~-\testabll-6h~cJ=t'~_c"!!__()r_:_8__!!_1_t.kely.~·:~c:.::.~:__':~~ .. ;':', ":;,;\~:" pOSSlbl1~.t¥_!!, . but,· 90~. cQ.oslQePe"d"~.t,t~~lJly~s t1g& tton ,~ac~. ::,::';," ,::--.''---~=~,;: .. ,>.;,-t Illegt t lmate ,0 so tea ti ftc .. ;':undJ;:l"~~~_1nSI! ,'~ ~':.~( J',. .. ParEf2~yehol';-i~- .-.~', .. -:-::~:-:~~:S=-:~: ';,~

Vol 16 1952 pp -2§l4-9-5)'~; ·"n.',', ".'--' --.- , , - -, 'u_ - ,_ .. -,,,-,.-

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. : " I'1!:'is_dltf1cult ~tQ~,-6~B f"e-·tbl.f~ long 'rang~ .Q'\) 3~-ot,~ves~---::,,:;'~",::~ ot a re s earoh. - progra,tll~tJL pal'8 psy !?,~gl()~~~\ ' The, pr_~ ~ ~_l'! t· ,,':,', ~ .. ·;~:2:.=,~=,~-;~~~:~~ lnvestlg8tOI'S~are._bt:J).o~ meanlf~:c~rt81n ,tha t ESP::e-xists-ol'7" :.-:,,---:". " ,,;:.

tha t 1 t 1 Q poss i ble7 to::--ax~'nrme-=nt~wnt(_:: tt.-: .. They' 00 . fe el :~~':;' "C:" "::~:'. ' ~hat the: parap8;Y91'lQlo~~-6,ts h.av,!3 m,.9_~,--:9,_~tl':Ong .:.Q9j3e "_~nd Jl).1~.·,··" -~:'_-,',~:_:~~', 'filling .to devote P.fZ-~r,ch'~,tliiJe~t:o ,fu_rtTf~r atudY,9_f"JhJ~,,:' ', .. :,~':, ,-,,::~, .. ,,~:-: .. ,:',:':~

. subjeot.:' , ", ,'.' ." '.".' -;,':'~"

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• ' o. _ .... •

_' I Th"'e=r=-e;:-~--;;:a=l!=!L~-,-,thr~~ove1:'ltIpR.~nS,)ll'!~as. whtch FeQqH',~, _:,'::' . speCial explora t1on"~:tHl.d~,wbf:r,~~~" t c.1s.bQP~9 ths t,- subs ten tiel " ...... ',,:,.,_' .... _ . progre s s' ean be. mad e,;" ~::-:,Tl:i:e $,~ _ ~l'~_G,tft~: ~,Qf3:s 19rL.oL' .. t':'e pee tab 1 e ~~"~~..:;-.::,.-t_-:":-:i expel'lme:nta; the- det:er.ml,DI,t,~9.~-"R('~-.~}1.qQ ~"lona 1. re 1a t 16fis111 PS ',' '. ,_--_:~·:'0'~~ l?e tween a v81'1ety, or. P!y'_gt)._g.lQgj(!EJ_t:.:yaJ;"l"ableS and. ESFi"tefSt:_,::-=;.:::t.::."":,~::,:~{;; soores; 'and -mappl~g-1ImIts:f'()~"-ttle:,u:tlnzat1on .or the ".: .r': ,.::':. ",' ', : phenomenon, -wi th' speclel- re'terence -t-o-t he c hanne l oa~ ~.~ ty , "', "-->,:,. __ , 'th.e klQoe ,of' meesages which Clan, DEL t1'8ilsml t ted_·ao_~ .. "J:Jpa tlQ' ... ~:-·:i:,"~;:':---::"

~empol~l con6tre.ln.tSi.~,~.=":"'=':='-=---~-=-:"~' -,., "I '. "

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, Tile ' p~e$en~':-r-es'e'8rCh-tealll he ve conel lid ed ", tha t these 0 bject1 ves would ,be 'bes t','eei'v~d 'by, 101 t 1,0 t1 ng t hr~e ... Qlosoly "conneoted_, exp~rlme.(lt.l_"Jit.~~l~~L'! .' The fi).1st oonsists'

~n condt\atlng .. gI'oupex-per1ments. in whlch each individual'

- {s" tre9 ~ed a8 p08sessl ng a modioum of' "~P and" t.ea t 'Bcore 6

are pret1tcted on the-'basl0 ot "atinge: on a number. of.,_,~,~~, .... -----" .. PS1ohol~81ael and pbyaloJ,ogical .. .B,cale_§ ~ .,' The second' 1s" to'_'~-'""'~~~"-- ~ .: d,evelop a method to ·relatepa.ttel"ria of. subjeotive probabl11 ty .~~":=~~

.. _:'. .'

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• In such casca, onlY t1"ae fil'st step requires any etfo,rt. ,"

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. ; THe-study or=reaponse -scqu~no-es 1s based - upon -the '

assumption, "~defenslbl'~_'~ l'n~thlf_lt8ht'--or,~-rellent psychological' researoh,- that-=gue8s1ng.:.p.§t:terns~ropreaent subjeots' '-_ ., evaluation-ot the unoe'r,tEtlnty ·situation in' theexperlmen~.,:.;",,~, '

There will be certain- gross:::.departurea from randomness' for,:-_ .. : .. : _", ,:::::,.,"_; all subje'ots, but, thel·e .. wl11':'"~BlSO-:_bEf_::_-ldlosyncrat1c'departures •. ". --:

Th,ese are rela ted to-'~geri_er8:1-~beh8.VlOuml-,-olfferenoes,- because . - .. - - whnt a person considers ··to-be-pl'obablEr.-determloes .to an

I Important ext,e~~ what, he wl11-d6~~':-,It' 1s, predioted that-

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payc hoI ogl.oal:~and·~ behavl oij'ral~fa.Q:tors .. ~The'- third 'ls ", ail' ::::~,~~~~,~, '~_~:~:':_:;~~-:'_ ." eXplO1'8 tioD ot~the,-::PQs tQ,lated', ESP "81)111 ties·· of-: a :·tew· :,~",,:,>~,,- ~,~"_':" ,;.';.;,.-:.~ ~peolal~ g1 f,ted.::.aub-j~.~~I.3; .~, .who .. ~''i'll11- be~,~n'ten81 vely:,'8 tu'd l~cL~~='- <''C:~~'~:~,2:,

under flex1ble---:-'condi tl-Oh"a--' -r-rr-r-r-r--rr-r-vrr-: ,-. -:-,,..., ,,' ',':', ,' ...• ,,'. ''-", __ ','

< • < ;« < «< , d~(A~i~i~'~_i~_~~i~p~i~~~t~~ts' h8ve -been/'i";';'~:;:;J

'>: s qarrl ed 9u t bt"_~ preYt0U8-1ovestlg~_~ors__::,--_~ ~beyili_E!Y_~'"$PRQ:J'.eJ'~,1!;ly~'~~, ,:':~'~';j;,~~:L _:" : succeede~ lli:=dlBo:rHDlnatt:ng~:,-~_etw~~ti~:l~ve~ls ot~scoI'lnS;.,tQ,r:~:,~",(;r~i;u·,:·~~, .' " persons Qhara-o't'-e"l'l"se~,by":'''d i ff'ere__n_Lra t1 nBs'- on : a.; number',of c, ,,--,~=~'c.:_:.:~~#Cc , .- p31-varlables:"'"~-Ttiise,:::.[nolude=IQ~-~~xtroy_~r81on,· effeots ,or" "~:.':''':o;:,~' , .'- certain drug$,"R,9rsQ1189tf,- prQtQ¢ola:j'·~-semconfl·dijnoe;-"c bellef~=;:"~-·,:::~7:'·::i'·'_!

'.' .'. ~ n ESP, ~ub-;JeQtFexper~ __ I,OO!\~~~·: .. .r-~"i~~oti:~'~.~e.,. ·Bu t~ 1 n_each -"' .. "",: ":':~';::', ;-,::;~-':\\:

Qsse only-'.one.; .. va-Pla'ble_:_:__-wa's~"$tUdl11:-a:=a"t_a-::_ tIme, _ eyen~-thouS~. '_=- .: ~.-~ -'~:;=::~ 1 t should - bave---=c-be'elED"le-gI"-- tha t_o.ther ___:YSl!ts ble a" than'~ the :~,;~,:::::-:"~::',:,"~'~;';:?:~' ~:;'_,t one seleoted~tor_8naIY&I'$ :vie~e~al-so---::1~ntluenoing;,;,the_,l'e$ult$.;~.- . ". '

',' ,', '-,', L • 'If. a pJlenomenon~{a.,_~~J1S_e___<Lby:_a.' number_:j)-rita:o.t-6r's~;, :,.-.,-::,,'~;~~,::~.-:;,;

. «: '. <?r 1 r- a t ~ a 'gillJl.;.-g_.\Q.g~-r-2:1 uv:e-Stt~_t;.t-on=1 t, mus t be' tre-a ted -:::'~::';,i- ~:: :',:::;'i{:<;,;

'" .' . 38 1t 1 t ! .. er.e'ii~l ttwould'bEf~permr8fJI151(C-to· al1ow-one--:fa:otor":::'':':~~:::':':'.;;fL~~~;~ to vary a_t~,a .ti\1fe •. the','othelL'-faotol'a being,: held'=6-~ns.ta!!t';c,~~--,:,.~~~c: :'-''.::':;' , or to con81der.:-the_comblne,d..::__erf_e_o_kof=a'.:riumbel"~or~releyant-=====::::::2.-.--:;

tao'tors. ~ It__on_LVSl!led one z: fa c tor 8 t., a .. tlme'='8nd:=:-lgnorErd~all ',> '~~:'':;_~;~::

the 0 there t'::: he-_::: would "be 111:-1 nformeda bout ::.:..the.:::..use;, o-r,.:.'.::..:,'-;:-':'::~-':'':':'__;_i,::__:,:~~_;'::7~i: . experimentaI "design:'" Thl§' ilili-Yn1:2tluruu..elY,:,the-s1.tuatlon-'· ",' " '_- ''lo'''':;;

W.hich obta1:'nnnpal'_$psY9hol<Sgy:-::_:,,-~:.:.,;~_'~~-,':!.: ' -_ :,' ,~'"

.. _ . ,~ _ , .

, i' Exp(Wt~n-ts ~lrOt:htch.:-:asp,~em~rges 88 a _t"lftioi16rCof .,,-_:: -:'--"~~~ the Inte~relatlons::=-of'~1l1nDer_ot"_:p$1;va'i:'18bnl_s-=s110Ul1LYle-Id'" -- --: -'-'-' =;

, resul ts wh1clLmeet;~any=r!3§$,o,n~bl:e.'~'.cr,l ter,lon', of'--rep~~t~"J1,_~~y~_:';-,;;)~~:S':

Oompaza8 t1 velm""fll{l.§:;-;,Q]~~~v1t'i'___1&bltL· s,t1fQi"'e,~' such' -as .; those . ot __ ~::::: ",.;' ':' J\nderson :and~W1flte:at~Dijl{e: ~ Unlversr~WQe're'ESP 'depends ~on-'O:--, , " "'~~~ the 1 n ter-pel'sonal:.:ttt\l tU(2e8lJt:8choo!;cJd.-J:"dren --'$ ill> je'(,-t'a .":-;-:,,~,, -, ,;,,-' ~ ... c-:~27

_.' and thelx" teacber,-.,.;exp~rlmeQ.~~~~.§,.Jl~v~_~pI'arently-been"'--_. r ::: '..,', ":':

, ~ ueceseru Laoou~ 50%~ot=-the":tl-mtt,-:~' tiw=-n"""Ul'ough ~the ' .v81'tab le s"::'",:~'_""::~~~~~'; .~ve beeti.:..d1ch'otom"ou's'" and .:·B1S-Qlf.~9~H10g~Q'S been. esti rna ted --. ':' ," '--;",: ";:--::-c 'wi th relatlveli':-crude-~~test8 ,ltl 's ttident a1 ther~.11ke'8_:_:OI' "::does '--'.:.-<~':_-:qot like ,hls-tea'cher'.:llnd _Vice, .v$I'Sa;_B _ stUdent e1 thel'":soores . .. ,,": .. ~bove th~ expect~d.::iji6~fi1',::i)r-Jfc:<irEf8~J)~lQwclt). ' .. ',' ..' . ".,.,'

~ . .-~

- ~-he'~-'---a~b jeot6~ at~ '-:d ivlded ~l-dt o-;eor~ 6Pon6~--typeai'-~--~bea~~'ii~~ ~';:;'7:: ':,:':-'''-_7~',_~~ w111 tend ._- to_':__scor-e_::.at.: 01 tfe-rent-;:Tevels':;':,ln ESP .. -;tes'ts f~i:':O-r ~,;:2-~'~~:~-::-;-:;":'-: --'<'~ course 1 t--ls not '-assuuieQ ~ tha'1;' 8QOP t 1 ng,,-a~ pal"t1~ulQr.~-pa t~eJ;'p'~o~~-_c,,:,,_:: :'_;,~-, " ca n 1 n any: way: -::-.fl!f"f.eJl_.t ~S-Cb~e~s,: _ (-exoep t-~'I rc,::exp~r tmen ts _;where_"';'_r "'::-;':-<:';' ';::'" -~ ',',. ,the model -involved "10 cotnpE\l'_thg:gQ.t3_S~$-,~;EfQ(l 'targe~, ''-seQuence~-:''-'_~---:_c<~,h;:',c~:,_:;.,:: ~r~, '-' 1s the W4tchIng'dljJrlb91l()lLl'allie-r---tbIDl~th.e-''blnotilal --," _-''':''- -:,-"-'--:_

-:",T -r '_", ••• __ • , 'd~st.rlbutl_on~lif::whlchca'Sl;~too_,varf-swe----=--ma1~belnoreasod .. ,'::,;'_~-'~::~:-:~-:--i',,":·;'

~~~~ , ~',: ,'" -- : __ t-hough. the._exp~o t\1tt ~n:-~l-tr:·n"Q.t:-:::ef't'eo te~)'ii'~~' I t--:1"ii'~:a;ssume'a·-,:;:;,- --:::;-- -~ __ ;~~-::-::

,:~-::,~ '. '_". i-~ '.~' -tha.t thc"·gue8s1ng~~t_te~rx:jn~~tt1e.::::.JaI!_~sC9r.e'_Ta.re.~both- .~-~'-~"7.~~<~:--=~~-~'~~~._~~~~

::.j~~: - .' related to-::-a---:-thtrd:-factor -.:->,,', - - '-,:' '- -: ':-. -' .' ,', -

;:'.~,' . ,; - ':- :-, :-- , ~." . - . ~:j~:-;tfEFii6r-kJii,t h;l:~ l~~~~~-r;sjb-:j~ct'~: ':;ho--81~ ~ ~:,:~:~,'-' - ~:~ ~:E:':~~:'_- -:,

:;)~. ' ' .: ~ - - - pI'om1 se - o-r,_$x_t~a ord Uial"y.Jib ilIX{¢_s_.:'Wlll;.~l~n t ro duoe-a~~ n umbe r o~~'-~-:- __ ~"'_'~<,,-c ":

r~~~: , . ,i '; '-'-_of expcl'fmental:-=teo.hniqueQ-\"lhlclt'-haH:iOe~n· tgOQre4:-:-or "_.~'_d -,_-:~:,;:_;-,~:-=:~.-

_., - ,-: " .• barely h.lnted "at,jl-rLthe,_'i@st-.~ __ ~ AJar1e'tt..:_ot '-models"'ot":_. thif-- ~''--- :;':~~0_::_--~_~-

::_;--.::::_~',:: . .;. manner In-whlch~1nt.ormatl~n _:18- transferred .. 111-:::]:)0 te8ted-~:_-'--::-;-:i==-::"~--::::"-

by simple' varlat totL,__Of=-tti~tasl{s~~lm:p:~~ti(l~(m _tne2sub-jIO_t~;:~~:-~- . '".:.."~:_

->,~;';_I Prel1minar_Y~RlI1n~---::s-tlJdles~.~-11r~wh1ch-t'eedDack:::-ori:-X'esul,ts<:~_:~_'-:-:cc:~~:;';,:;"

,._::;i: r _:';. ;and other. _ktnda::-or~rerrlr_droemeilLi\'l!e~u-tl11$ed) ,,~wl11-be~-_' -'~"""::~-"-'-"''":":-;~:

: :;.:;,:~-" _-: :', introduced 0 t~t.be-:--ea-me"?Ume.:- .-:I r_.c:~_a~~sij1:i ;leo. t _ is - f ou n<L1¥ho,::___c8 n: ,-- - - '-. : " =:

t;_g; - " ; . ,score reI ~ab11 J ~ 8,Q.~a_t_t~mpJL_;'_W~11::p§:m_i~Lro -= ill 0 re ase----::--t he ..': .. :-_"~, __ _.,_.~,-.: __ ,:

EEf quantity Of'.:.trailsml tted~n\formatlon~lthout_lnor_easlng"-""'--'- ---'-:::-

-',~,--:. _the averag~~Pr-.-Qb.gb"llT~f su.2~~fs~y-:mak1ng-·use~of. " __ ',-,:---:' . ,',

s trai shtfo~waZ'd ~~ techn1qQ!!s=~1f~;c_one-~rQri(,'- the; rna themll t 10'91 ~~= ,thaory or. cOIII1lunt-c-a tl"on~ .,-::':~' ". ,'- . -,-":- - - :::,:~

- - . , ' .. : -,:: :~'-'~: ~UOrklng-,:~it~'~~rimi:adal,"'1tib.~jects, ,: ep~o_l~r~~~:,~~~~~:_~~:~_~'-~'· ''--:_':'-:,~,- attention: wilFl:ie::'gtj,~_O:_~,9~-JUi6l$_Q~Q_-Un_iye,: states,- wh1oh~:__:____,.,_:.,: -':::',-:-=-:-:---: , tend to aDcompany:-sp:ollta:n~'olls~ES_P--'~exp~~!_~noes~ -:':Su¢h~states· __ :_: __ c' .. ',:::.,,:,

., ., ca-n be lnducelLand.:.:..controlled~~to'_'8ome:::ex·teotwlth_::-hypn(jsi-s'--.",c·:-_-':::::'.~_' -'-':

,. ,-,and drugs"" Some:of'~thh~~W01'k will-make--use-of qualltatlVe~--'--~-----_:-'-':-~ ,- stImuli, suoh as ~draw lngs __ E!,Qd 1de-~'~-wl th, _8 P§_C_lJll:- ",_~~~:; :~ __ ~~; _-~, -_,:: _~:-,~,:-:;;-,:.~

B aeccda t iF·' .~ 0>2':1 ;~5~;~:'~:::__:_=_-

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'_--' __ . -i NuoierOU8_math-ematlcaL'models- and e.xper1met)taL , __ -_-._', _', -

designs enablG_ the- s1multaniroUs, assessment of-two or more ,.-_-: .: - ,_-"---'

independent -predlo_tora.-,.Chlef" __ among- these Bre multiple _ , " __ - ,

-regreSSion 8nsl.y6~a 8~d_-t8ct~rlal' '~xfierlmcntal'-'-deslgfiffj-.-,- .> - -----:---~' which are! closely_relat~d __ logloalli _snd' .. mathemat1oally .---

The essent181~ide8of-,: .. ,the- resres'slon model ls tbqt eaoh, - .

IndIvidual! 8" scores Qn·_the _ n_1ndepe.ndent 'variables '-and ---- -_. .: ... --: the ESP CI'l tel"ion_,Diay--,b-e:loc8.-t'ecr~at- 'a'iioint in -sn n::+ ,1, . ,._ - ,--- ....

dimensional- space. The relation between. tlie ort ter1on,.. .. -- '-:_

and the predtctors 1s given by a mul tlple regression .: __ : __ ...

equat1 an ~h1ch_ takes - the form: -~~ ',---',< . ,

~ , ,

. Y:: A +.t> ,71.23 ••• N Xi + /l Y2.13Li~~.n~X2-+_ ••• + ~·yn'.'12'-.~~ri~rXn---

, ,;- . '! '. " /where '

·it;.~f;·;2.f.ti;:,~~~<~t~~;~;{iPt~:~~i;f~i~~;~I-I~i'E;·,~~,;':~·S.,,:~~:G\;t;:.f:}i;:;

,;

1.~l.,I·~s¥~p;·~~~~;~]I~~II.~I,.i.ll,',~l,"~~i~~,~~II~~f~:;f~';l~:{~~·D:~'"~:~;~··1

. ~ ." ":', -

~~,.:~: .. .: --~,:, '\~_':'"::' where: A t8an::lntei'cep~:~ana. tbe: .ooef'fi.Ql~nts·'ot the' X~$tlre.-::· ,':,:'~'L:.;!:: ft~~': .:': ;.~:: ":.'i'~-:;.' pa l' t t R t :teg1'8'lre 1 :oa~ol!'ft_~cl e~i!t1j~~:~nd.':-::lnd.~es te the - :we,! gh t ftig'2:":J_':':~:_';:';::.~,~

1_}·;,::i;!':h~~l~j1.iI~~!i~ii=~~;t$-~1F~[f~li7~~4~

-";~~': ..»: :~~".,;r; ,~;,<-.·"·>;".estlmatl_on st8tisttosi.·._wher~. one. may s~~k.:_ot.~cont1dcr;lc~_~,:__.:" '. "_.;.:.'':_'

~~, '::;~. ,:'~:_~'-"~':":.;n:: ';' ~;:;:r~l :;;-tt!;f.~:~~(~~~:~a,6~~~·l~ti~:~! :~~::~i:~ i~~!:·.~:~~;~:~~~:~_~~,~:'J'~~·;,~~~·

'--~:;':: ,;.,\. , - -. ";', . one may predt.ot.wl.tlt . .:~.5:· conffaence ths_t,the sUDj@'Qt S",', .' " .. '.,:';':;:'.:.:,:.:_-:-::':~%~:, '::) , _;~,. ; .. ' -. ':~ .. ,SP SOOl'q . will': fal"l.:_-somewner,e_:,'5e .. tw.een: A·jin.;1-'·B-,p~r:Q:[I\_~,:::·::":':~·:~L·~;~~~<~::j';:~t,ki/:~~ :i~;F .". ',.:>::=·i:'" :/.' success. ~. Tti"(J' ~CleareBt:-.metnnng_!).:L-="~.r§~JJ,tabi11 ty.~_: is ,;:'" : .... ~.::~ ·.::,/:~r·'::_~,">: )it-,::~:"".~ .. expres~ed"'-~n 'Bta.tementS'.:ot~is)ilnd, _.Ylh:areby ~.the _result~ , -, - -; --~ ".- .. _'.-~-:

~,:'~i: .. ' , .... ora Ber1es~or~.ex-perlmen ts; ': not~h-e-:-pr9bB,bl11 tleLatj;a_QM_d :--_.-. - .. ' < ..

~ ..... '. '_'. ',. to them, . may -7be-oom~l'_~4 .. ~~tQ:',f!¢:e~~J_t~-:,t_b,gf~:.rl t~_ t hEL.same:.·_;'~·_~:L::,;;.:::·:·:::~;.,,-.~~,-:i:·;'~·;<_,

~.~'~" . . : pa t ~rn. ,. Thezw~ th::'or=-the:=p}''-ea~ o.~ed.~ 1.ll ~~r.ya-Lartd':::..t_h_e:-::·:-_-'---·-·",~··:- , . .,.,'~

~~ . .: .' 'c cont'ldeno&7;coetrldlen.t~6f._oo.urse 'lar~=-tnveI'sely-:-and~ll~' .. r- .. _. ' • .- • ~, __ ::-.

~ .·.·':····;."', .. r~!~!:t~~~~!~~~t~~~~7~~~:!~~1":a~~.l~~~ng~;c .. ,~>.".,.

::-~·':r· ~ ; THi:L~:_val'lables=_:t.o_l).e-_c_o_nsl~.:d::. can _ be ~c las se<L"·,,,·, :," ·c:_-":"'::'c::_'.' ..• =':t:::~ . 1 n s ev el"9: l~ ways .-::;.T,fi~Y-,:'·~lll-~:{)e .:1-q trt~l9-~ PSYC ho 1 og 1 Q$]. ~~'.~~:=-;';;'.~" ~.~.~,~::;~ :' o.,Od phy 8 ~ 0 l'ogl~~~f(fC"ttrr'S-=-fllld;e'xp::er:" mgJl t.~~ llY man ~ pula b 1 e ': ' ." ': :.,.. "., . .'." ' ... '.

\ factors.~· Intrlnslc[:fac torif -m'ey: be ":·tenfp.Qrary',~~H}!l. .. _~~. _:_. , .. :-. ',' . . .

~harao terlstlc-::-ot"., the ··exp~Ltq~.fiJ~),:.~! !.~~.~~oi\;~:..su.ch ·~as~;,-·~_' . ~~~-+'::"'_ annoys QO e , -.or-=-ge n:era.I· " P~~~9l_ltr:J: t.~t:,· ~ @I'_8.9.terl s t 1 C Bi ~ S uo h··.· .~: " _'"';'. c::~ -~'-~:'

, " as intel11gence'~·Rxpei'1.ffiij"ijl~iU~ .ID!plpuTIable:-ta(jtol's'.·o~" .. \~~~_'.,~;~~._-.:,:~::-;-:,~.~'~:: lnclude 1nd.u,c.e.u"""at ti ttidErs7,such as: moti Vf\ tloil~pr_QQJAQ~,<!:-:-- -o_~~ ~--,-~:~'~~'L;"~;:, 'by poslt1;tc::reintorce.me_n_t., ~_a.na_:_p.ul'.ely -f'ormal'~rac.tors·~~:,_-:--;-;;,=:,,: .:~~:_':c:":~.::,-i.'i:-~~ such as the-::n~mbe~·::6f.-ESP~:.tl'lalS.·y'lelo.lng~ themo&t:'·accurate·,:-:-~--:-:~.;-}"i':~',~:

S~;~t~!~~::alYif-f.Wt~~~~$~it:~6}$~ii~~:~!!!~~~g·;:~~··ri6{d:iit'ai';'~~;::':'-:';':~,':~~~;:'

observations. In'''exD~I'lmehts_jiJ_l th~slngle.,.sul)jeotsJ appo.r~nt .. ' ,_'

Qommon factors In_:lsp.ontaqe_-ous!=-.~.P-;;_s·ojf·:lntelllgent:· :':." ~"":',':"" ,_._ .... _

"guess1ns~ . lfi~.thELsele'ct1bn'~.6f_:varlablesj, speoial attentlon'-~~~ -, .. ,,,,~~ '1111 be paid .t c . teohnlo81:'P~9J?_l.~"t!1~ .. "_t~:_~.(1~11'nS'~and-to. t,he"'·--'C:-"-_--"-·' .

rellabl11 tY"8nd~va'lldl-ty of ' ex 1st In g"ere ales. In some _ ceaea -.

~d noc p~oced\ires',~i_:t.Y._o h~~~ b~ .. _Q ~~~.h wI lr:. be _ used. -,.'"--0'

. .- '~"ReSp()nSEr-pat-terns~ _l!~~_'~~(rigs are notol'iously-:-::-:-:- . -. _. ,,-

inetticient randomlser.s,.6o ~ould. ·"not· be inappropria te to -- -.-

~rea t response PEl t t.erns _BS_ -; ho'V.l ng _two~_c.ompQO,l:;!g~$ J : ~§p.g ti.Q:_'

guessing' habits. G.u~sst_ng· habl ts·':r,ep.resent subjeots',' ,"' ..

sub jec tl ve evaluB t tori":of~t he-aequ "lDt1a l-=uncer ta 1 n ty .:

a1 tuatlotl. in .. the OlCportment ""and·"·depend "on such .. factors

a s a b 11 1 ty to judge '-probabl1 i t tea -"end 'lib! ts te 1'0 nd cmneas I compulsions with ~espeot-to symmetry. &0; . Such habits will necessar1ly.lnterf'ero with eXeroise ot.:ESP, because every

." t1me a caotce is made-habit. end psi-information are in --.

'>'<l .. /oompaU tion ..

;';(}~;~:::}~~~~~\~!~~:1~~f;;~;;1!!§1~f~~~~i·~fl~~:;~-.;Z;~;::1·~·i'~i,;~i·~'~~;:·.·::;-7-:

". ~

~ ... -

. ", .

"

~: -:

" .

t"f' ;1~~~~

........ . ~

• ,,;0,::-:.

of information T~-7e~~~~~~~~~~. ~~~;';;n. experiments- -'c -.,- i_e. ":'.

ts: log 5 +. (r/25>.__ ~OO] .~~«;":J( ?5.;;;;r)/1oo1>·:· ... ·~~_. .. ~n b1n1ta-, where'r t s correct guesies.(This~,~' _.: ....

-appears ~o be the correct model, atnce - tilere is eV1dence that BUbJeotB produce the' same deviation froM-- chance: when aiming below 1 t as when they Bltn...=_aboV.e, .in apt te of.' the fact that p {. 1/2). Good subjects will. tend to have _ somewhere between. 2 and .6 b1 t8~:ot information -generally.

/ava11able

::,~_c,:.,~.~,'~,"':''-''"'':''~':':'~';'"'''' :'.~. .: 'avatlabl~ . to:__them.:;.:;,__Tb,i~'.,;iEVOne.: ot:·~th.e_-::.r_E!llSOna .WhY. ESP.:~'·, ,~,,;:,:~,~;:::>,::~:<~;~:;:

-i..:' ~ .. ,: ,exper1ment8~are~~_sQ::d_1f't1.9i.llt~~':But:::-ft '-may' 8tl11·~~;p68sible:~:':;·::.·:?:·:=",:o.:,;"'

··.·:,·,2.:. "''''',: to learn's : good ·deal::·about::the.·~pfienClirieitioh, even If'-lefarn_1ng~~:~:.::;:;--::'''':-,~

-: •.. ;~: '. studies ~ houfd'-~'tan:;'::::F'or;~:,i ~:-:~"~~."; 'po_Eisfb'1~: to._Y~ry.--;_tlf.e..~~,:,~_::=-::.:c~~~::::::_'~:~.:::::·:.,:._>

- .~.: expe!limental--pa~radlgm-=-:_~-Qq~Jforlcmlnat-e-'bet:ween :various'~:. i .. : "; ... ,:; ..... ":' .. '",::,..-.::.'.

,,';,"". models f9r_the::_JJpe.X'~-t1 o~':Qf;"~th~~ti~.ii~m~fllnn, .. ". auch:__(ts.L :.,~~~.~.: .: __ . "~';::::";:~.<j;:~'."

r~}:~I ' ._, .', -. ESP OCCU~8·'.sp.QJ::a,(U~.Jl:,Jr!t· .gives ·_~~r'fe¢.~ lnfoX'ma_t_1.QJl;_:~·:·~?;.;:;.,i;',~:t::,~.;1'L:_~f.,'.~.

~"".~~. ". "~ ~:,'~".':' ~SP e lwats~ooc'!:t's:::_8nd1_litp_Itlplles '0 1i8i'ifrb"'S~1 Qt. S uccesa. }:>Y ~~.~L:'':'"::r:~;:.':-;L-.:'!:::~:-~, ;,:·iit;~,· .. " • ;'" /'.'. a COllsta(lt factor "'''ESp·-=:-telIs . the' subject 'one 'ofc-=the"'-' : -, ,,"O···<::c··.~·,,::·,r:"_ .. ,-,: .. :

~t~' :,,:.':: ~:~:·"~~,:·:;:'·~~i;:!~~~::ti~:';~~~~f~!tiX~~rs~K~i~;:~ic~~~~~i?j!'.I~~.~~Ii(;;_~;:.~'~~~:;:~~':-':;iI~~

~.:._.'-~: - ". ' :<' .. to pai-models j:-·1t;7'fil-11·-sfso-=·ife·~:tie-ceoB·sai·:f-; to intro_duoo"'- - '."·',':',~·.7:~.~F~~.7 .. ~:; . .-.,: ':r;~~~1-' ~-,. ':' :.' .:. models ,w~1ob~pr_oy.1_de-mOre.~se-n:s 1 t~ye~' e$.t.19~ t~.~~o_r_~_8X. __ F~!_· .. ' - --~- :;': ~]':~"l .. ' . ,'. example,: tar.ge_EQl~t_Qrt_a_l ~l~~J?~ _1nt~~~-oed where15Y-=S1l~s~e_s .~~- ~' _ _':~--;;;::~~:'.

--:'''<.: .' : ' .. instead or beIng-of,-:th1f-'all-;.or·notfifng' type-oan,b(f~more-:-or ':. - ;---:-::~:

<~:~. '. ",' ie as rlght.-=-.·· Ag~tcg~a-~-num1J~r=-_~f ~~~~r.~~ent . p v'f:!lri~~ "wlJl::~e.;;,-,~,,:---?-.- .. :·~.~":o-~,?!:

. T·_. , .introduced~ aM~lntermlxed:to Imft1fte re-al life: a1 tlJ8.t.lons-;·-· :.'" . _ ' .. -

~' .' .. ':ub;~~F 11 t~!1~~~~i=~~t~:ru~;;'~;~m!~::~;~:~~t~t~~~§-~€~';~i;~

:~l. . ,:~ -, : f~r~o~~: ~~~~~~;:.!;~~~;~::;~.~.:.r!~~.:ojdiwha t~~ ~~:~~~8~~.i.-~'£L'i~;;~~~~·~~'S'

::::::'::':::'._ .. ' '!las, 'Vll tb;:_eleotrie-'shock=eto~":" lfi-si:ldTfil:!n, .. an ,attempJ;:-::':,~,,'-~:::':.'~, ..'

. :: :: iN 111 be ma de -to-=l fiQrEfsse=- t be=::tNH1.Sml t ted; 1 nt.orma t1.Q n .: t. 11: : .... :c. ':' :.~':.' .C.: " .,: ,',

.. ~}~~:'1 . cases wher~: the .. averqge-prob.nbtl ~_~y=-oJ:,~aceBs~·r6ma1n~Q :=':~:""~ ,~::-"':;~-::":".':'~:

;~-i';'.:;;:d conatant, . ThUs;'lt N~''''"' ~e~um'be~~:o:c..:..:.tr1als· in'" which. ,',~ .. ,:~'~ ~.:.;,:-:,,:,:;.'.'~:-.

I:=~;;,~~ . the lth ~iitln~·l.$i,~_!fe.t·il!,get, 1s'~"guesse~ to_be=_the'~a,!n;:'::, ::'}'~;'~(':_-'.~~;~'::C~.::--.<

'~:-::~:~:11 1» ;: the t:r.(rq\1eno~f~~--'=a~F8·.tai'get·' g- .~¥the:_,o.freqlJ_en_QY_'__:_·:-;~~~o;,;:'c;,:~u:.,:'" ,',':'.

::'~~ii' ; .*t guesseS~·Of'2Aratf~~N~=;'itie'''iiuiriber'"of~~r1aia;~ .. {Nia)~/~ii~',HJJ~~·~~E{~~;~~.

;.?;~.:~~ ,,'. 'hi o h 8 ta ~es ~',t ~:.L,~a t t-o:-:-_Q.f:" ~h~_', f~~~l~-'{i_1 t.bJh1 ch - t ~ is ;":;::'~:'"'~';';"~""'~.)?', ':':';'.~:

::,:;-.::: ... ; ..' $ueesed "';"to~tlijf.e~M.c!~!17.J~~9_q\1~l\Ql_Jr ~tJlOl"e:"; WlJro~'no_~-~~s:s~ng-, -: ,.~_:.:~~-

'~~7:::' . ~ref'eren~e. 'm8;Y:-be~s.e.d:::.to--deteii(!1ine--wtiioh gue·ss,,_was.~th~w'''.~·':''_,,·:. > .. ::~.

~?y~:. ~ost e9t1ma:to~Qf~the_:_. target,. a,nd 'tl!e·~esultant:;e·st-lmA·t~fC=:-"~-c,:,~:'~~·-::~~:_-.::~

~::;~~ ,hieh wl1r:!,ep~I)~ _ _jjn;:~tb~.~.O\1~P9!,,_,9.f_~~:~Jals and ,the ,qu,ol)t1_tr ,:' , .. ' _:....';

.:t~··;:·" . of' 1nformat1on -.8yat'lJft?le~~j;(t~~.bf(:=i]ri,.lJt~~~~vt will a,ppr9t.\(J.l1.,; ..... -,,:-"~~:'.:': -; :".:..-

-<~t 9~rtalnt.raeYtnpto~ilJalll_~' '-'·:==\C;__:_~~ci{-·.--.. '.

~~ . .!'_,... ~ - -. 1.-· . -.~.~.... ,-.- ~_~-'_--'-"'.----;- .. --- -,-_ -~~~' ~.

=: :'." BUTthe, ma1n=-(H)n$lder~ tl~9 Will-be the.8 t.~1 ~~'''~'''' " .: .. ~,_' :" .

.. ,_ and ge neral ~d i'SlJOSl t i 0 n:=of":=_ ~q~ ~ a ~l) j~ 0 t'r:" Wherev GZ'.':;;pos $:1b l.a ~;:-::~.' : '.:.' eve~y attempt·.wl11-~b~-.:ma-ae=--t(Jt1l1-101.-=the tasks required to- .--"""h1s pr~f.erenoe6 .. $.nd' hia·,·e.s tirri3.t.Go':'ot.·go.o.:J wOl'k i ng -cond 1 t1 ons ; . . :,,' , In one case the-exp.!tr_lmeIJ~al·:,-pl'o~edure·~\l-1U be deslgnGd-=C\o.~-~::~'~~~~--,:,"'"~-~

~Qh1eve- favorsble:--.mottvatloii'·.by·. s'ucK:-oevicss as instruoting., ..

~lm that be-is Pl,1l'.tJ,9.lpatiRS in a etu'd¥_,of subceptlon~·. II1'::": .. .. _:

other OO,SOQ drugs and psyc, ologlcal::-:-tr1cka w111 be' used to, .:" ---

modify t"t1s-attttud,eti •.. ThG_.experlmeQt~~.$ will btf 'pt!rtlcularly -'- """","'. interested in dlsassociatlYc f$t:a.tes, f~om the abaiesemW-2.2 ,.,' .',. n1veau l'Ilental to multlple-:·p¢r86na_l_1.t~~Jn so-cal"ledmed1Uttrsi"· ~~~ .. -~' :::'-'.~ ana an attempt wlll:o.bEf:mtide-::.to-'·lnduce-a-:number of sta.teso.f

this k1~d, . using hypnosis.,~ Hypnosls:..1s .seon not as a

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A ppa r~ t us -- r Ol~' r e cvrd tng - di\ ttf tz;»: ->: ~~:~ Mlorof'tlnf"Camel'a_-=and . ..::pl.'o jeotol' __ :_,:_'_ ,._,:;::._:_"._: .' Computer _tlmel«~-and:'pr.og~amm_lng,:~':':;:---:.!I,~·~c< Office Equipment 0 _ • .. - " ' ....... -'~'- • "0.. -'

Offlc~ expenses (postage'-o_~ .-

300--- .: . 560:"- - _ ...

300

500

200 . '0_ ,_ ." __ '0 0

3 600-_-0_.'-::"," .... --.

f .-_,

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:"7 ~'460 .

1,11-~. . __ . _

Repairs-to 'Preml=;:1_~s .--If·

.Manuat=cOOlPY , ' 0 0 !.

Induoements or s eot-s~---·"·:·~-'~:::'::·-'-·_

1- ass 1 s ta nt s .:-' .. :,' .. 0."::.: -", ..... :,

full ttme) - . -" ,

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-, ,,: __ -'-.uho ~11L:reJ:.1e11__Jt~~_c progress .of the- wor" - orfer~suggest1:on'§t.:'.::~~-:~_::lr,~~

.' about i ts __ condu~ __ t~_~o:"t)~_, It'~t-echnr-.?al",: pt'oglemS"~"--1'_lt~'!? "":-':'_~'c",~:;:~~::~;~~

- - 'members;" 01' - .' . .- -:::::_::-.~_:--:-"-: .• :.:." _-.' -; - " « >. -' -;..- "':,'::':' -~-:-··'·¥:5:

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There 'aro- Qr-i1ave~be-en-l~es-earch centers for

. p~rllpsyc hology a t':":"Duke-Un iver's i ty,-----cam'h'r id ge Un 1 vers i ty, City College of New Yorki--Harvard-Univcrs1ty, Stanford Ul11 verst ty f The Uni ver-slty -of Cnlcago,Tho Un! verst ty - of Utrecht (which-- has - a chair - ot?arapsychology») London U~i vers1 ty. Pi ttaburgh--Uniyersi ty-&o-. -

. , : A general, s:tirvey' of the- methods.ond ,findings of parapsyohology may be found in. Rhine and Pra tt (11,») an exhnuat t ve analysis, of - the-I'eSeal~o:h-up_to 1940 --tn Rhine et all (13); ana a general review of the subject in Soal

, end Be tem!1 n (16) * _

:- :.' -'-! !~ , /Researoh

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