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BUY Astra Graphia
Company Update A fast‐growing dividend play
Analyst What’s New
Adi N Wicaksono
anwicaksono@kimeng.co.id Management expects FY10 net profit to increase by 35% y/y to Rp90b
(62 21) 2557 1130 and revenue to grow by 5% y/y to Rp1,400b. For FY11, it estimates
sales growth at 10% y/y.
As at end‐1H10, the company has no debt. With ample cash on hand,
Price (Rp) Rp500 it is mulling acquisitions to venture into the information and
Target (Rp) Rp1,050 communication technology (ICT) business.
IDX Index 3397
Our View
Historical Chart With the domestic economy growing robustly, we believe the
company will be able to achieve its net profit and revenue targets for
(Rp) (Million shares)
550 Volume (mil. shares) Close 70.0
FY10. The 14.5% y/y slide in revenue in 1H10 should be offset by new
500 60.0
450
50.0 projects in 2H10, when the company typically secures more work. PT
400
40.0
30.0
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) is its biggest third‐party customer
350
20.0 with 9% revenue contribution in FY09 and 13% in FY08. In
300
250
10.0
0.0
comparison, revenue from related parties (Astra Group) represented
25-Sep-09 11-Nov-09 5-Jan-10 19-Feb-10 12-Apr-10 31-May-10 16-Jul-10 3-Sep-10
7% in FY09 and 8% in FY08.
Performance 1m 3m 6m
Revenue and net profit growth should be underpinned by new
Absolute (%) 17.6 25.0 35.1 products (integrated document solution products with color printing),
Relative (%) 8.6 8.4 12.7 which command a higher margin. The strength of the rupiah also
lends support to the company’s margin as the bulk of revenue is in
Stock Information rupiah terms while costs are denominated in US$ and yen. In 1H10,
the company saw margin increasing to 34.3% from 26.8% a year ago.
Ticker code ASGR Time is needed to realise its acquisition plan as finding the right
Market cap (US$m) 75
52‐week high (Rp) 500
target is easier said than done.
52‐week low (Rp) 275
Shares issued (m) 1,349 Action & Recommendation
6m avg d.vol (US$m) 0.2
Based on the Gordon Growth Model with a cost of equity of 16.5%,
Free float (%) 23.1
Major shareholders (%) we set the company’s fair value at Rp1,050 per share or 12.4x FY11F
PT Astra International (76.9) PER, implying an upside of 110%. Reiterate BUY.
INDONESIA
Year End Dec 31 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
Revenue (Rp b) 726 1,028 1,335 1,400 1,540
Key Indicators Pre‐tax (Rp b) 95 84 91 130 154
Net profit 72 62 67 91 114
ROE (%) 20.1
EPS (Rp) 53 46 50 67 85
Net gearing (%) Net cash
NTA (Rp b) 723.9 EPS growth (%) 29.7 (13.3) 7.2 35.8 25.7
Interest cover (x)
19.7 PER (x) 9.4 10.8 10.1 7.4 5.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.0 3.9 3.2 2.5 1.8
Yield (%) 8.0 8.0 3.6 4.0 5.4
SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Astra Graphia 27 September 2010
Figure 1: Astra Graphia’s 1H10 results
(Rp b) 1H10 1H09 % y/y 2Q10 1Q10 % q/q
Sales 575.0 672.9 (14.5) 283.4 291.6 (3)
COGS (377.8) (492.4) (23.3) (177.6) (200.2) (11)
Gross Profit 197.2 180.5 9.2 105.9 91.3 16
Operating expenses (137.2) (131.9) 4.0 (71.0) (66.2) 7
Operating profit 60.0 48.7 23.3 34.9 25.1 39
Interest expense (3.0) (9.8) (69.1) (1.1) (1.9) (42)
Forex gain (loss) (0.9) (3.9) (75.7) (0.2) (0.8) (80)
Other income (expenses) 3.3 0.9 245.3 1.8 1.5 21
Pre‐tax 59.3 35.9 65.0 35.4 23.9 48
Income tax (15.3) (10.3) 48.9 (9.0) (6.3) 43
Net profit 44.0 25.7 71.5 26.4 17.6 50
EPS (Rp) 32.6 19.0 71.5 19.6 13.0 50
Gross margin (%) 34.3 26.8 37.4 31.3
Operating margin (%) 10.4 7.2 12.3 8.6
Net margin (%) 7.6 3.8 9.3 6.0
Source: Company, Kim Eng
From document solutions to IT services
Astra Graphia is the exclusive distributor of Fuji Xerox document solutions in
Indonesia, selling and leasing document solution equipments. This business
covers every aspect of the document cycle from input (scan, create and
capture) and management (index, store, archive and distribute) to output
(scan, copy, print, fax and view).
The company is also engaged in the information technology (IT) business,
providing IT solution software and services via its strategic alliances with
Microsoft, IBM, Oracle and other global IT service providers.
In FY09, the document solution business contributed 60% of the total
revenue while the IT business made up the remainder.
Full spectrum of document solutions
Astra Graphia’s document solution business comprises four segments: (1)
office product business (OPB), (2) production services business (PSB), (3)
printer channel business (PCB), and (4) FX global services (FXGS) .
1. Office product business (OPB): The company offers document handling
solution to offices at both the departmental and corporate levels. This
entails the supply of multifunction equipment (scan, copy, print and
fax), as well as document management information software. The
equipment is available for sale or lease, subject to annual renewal.
Management claims to have 40% market share in the office business
segment.
2. Production services business (PSB): Document solutions with a focus on
document production are provided under this segment. The main
2
Astra Graphia 27 September 2010
characteristics are high‐speed digital printing for both large and small
document volumes (ie, short runs).
3. Printer channel business (PCB): This segment is engaged in the sale or
lease of laser printers (including multifunction printers), their
consumables and after‐sales services, as well as computers .
4. FX global services (FXGS): An integrated portfolio of document solution
products is offered under this segment. The company will also help
customers to outsource products and solutions based on their
requirements.
Figure 2: New color document machine Figure 3: Multifunction devices
Source: Company Source: Company
A dividend play
Astra Graphia distributes dividends regularly, with the payout ratio from net
profit exceeding 90% in 2005 and 2006. Based on our FY10 net profit
assumption of Rp91b and using 40% dividend payout ratio (DPOR) as in
2009, we estimate DPS from FY10 net profit to be Rp27, translating to 5.4%
yield.
Figure 4: Cash dividends over the years
Year Net income Cash dividend DPS DPOR
(Rp b) (Rp b) (Rp) (%)
2005 36 34 25 93
2006 56 54 40 97
2007 72 54 40 75
2008 62 24 18 39
2009 67 27 20 40
2010E 91 36 27 40
Source: Company, Kim Eng estimates
3
Astra Graphia 27 September 2010
The stock offers 110% upside, BUY
Based on the Gordon Growth Model with a cost of equity of 16.5%, we
arrive at a fair value of Rp1,050 per share or 12.4x FY11F PER. This suggests
a 110% upside based on the current price. Our assumption is based on
FY11F net profit of Rp114b (EPS: Rp85; growth: 26% y/y), using 10% sales
growth and 40% DPOR. Reiterate BUY.
Figure 5: Valuation
P/E = 1 − ( growthrate / ROE )
(Coe − growthrate)
Cost of equity (%) 16.5
Dividend payout ratio (%) 40
Expected ROE (%) 22.1
Equity growth rate (%) 13.3
PER (x) 12.4
Price (Rp) 1,050
Source: Kim Eng estimates
4
Astra Graphia 27 September 2010
Profit and loss Cash flow
YE Dec (Rp b) 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F YE Dec (Rp b) 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
Revenues 726 1,028 1,335 1,400 1,540 Operating cash flow 127 167 230 125 169
Cost of revenues & opex 631 922 1,222 1,265 1,392 Net Profit 72 62 67 91 114
Operating Profit 95 106 113 135 148 Depreciation & amortisation 65 76 75 75 75
Interest income 6 6 2 2 9 Change in working capital (25) (77) 29 (41) (20)
Interest expense (16) (18) (17) (6) (3) Others (10) 29 88 ‐ 0
Forex gain (loss) (2) (17) (7) (1) ‐ Investment cash flow (76) (209) (67) (15) (15)
Other non op inc (expenses) 11 7 (0) ‐ ‐ Net capex (75) (124) (83) (15) (15)
Pretax income 95 84 91 130 154 Change in LT investment ‐ ‐ 14 ‐ ‐
Income taxes (23) (21) (24) (39) (40) Disposal of Fixed Assets 1 1 1 ‐ ‐
Net profit 72.1 62.5 67.0 90.9 114.2 Others (2) (86) 1 ‐
EBITDA 160 181 188 211 232 Cash flow after invt. 51 (42) 163 110 154
Financing cash flow (51) (3) (119) (122) (37)
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates Change in share capital ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Cash dividend paid (54) (56) (19) (27) (36)
Net change in debt ‐ 44 (91) (95) (1)
Change in other LT liab. 2 10 (10) ‐ ‐
Net cash flow (1) (44) 44 (12) 116
Balance sheet
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
YE Dec (Rp b) 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
Total assets 624.6 841.1 774.9 755 844
Current assets 399.4 535.7 524.5 555 705
Cash & ST investment 151.0 151.0 176.3 138 254
Trade receivable 105.7 167.1 126.2 168 185 Key ratios
Inventory 123.5 185.2 148.7 164 181
YE Dec 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
Others 19.2 32.5 73.4 85 85
Growth (% YoY)
Non current assets 225.2 305.3 250.3 200 140
Sales 17 42 30 5 10
Net fixed assets 141.5 199.1 166.1 106 46
OP 24 11 7 20 10
Others 83.7 106.3 84.3 93.5 93.5
EBITDA 14 13 3 12 10
Total liabilities 310.5 508.2 393.9 316.1 327.8 NP 30 (13) 7 36 26
Current liabilities 299.0 471.4 362.5 298 309 EPS 30 (13) 7 36 26
Trade payable 113.7 159.4 111.4 128 140 Profitability (%)
ST borrow & curr dues 117.7 174.8 82.0 1 ‐ Operating margin 13.1 10.3 8.5 9.6 9.6
Others 67.6 137.1 169.0 169.0 169.0 EBITDA margin 22.0 17.7 14.1 15.1 15.1
Long‐term liabilities 11.5 36.8 31.5 18 18 Net Profit margin 9.9 6.1 5.0 6.5 7.4
Long‐term debts ‐ 17.6 14.0 ‐ ROA 11.5 7.4 8.6 12.0 13.5
Others 11.5 19.2 17.5 18.4 18.4 ROE 22.9 18.8 17.6 20.7 22.1
Shareholder's equity 314.1 332.9 380.9 439 517 Stability
Paid‐in capital 134.9 134.9 134.9 134.9 134.9 Gross debt/equity (%) 37 58 25 0.2 ‐
Add paid in capital 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 Net debt/equity (%) (10.6) 12.4 Net cash Net cash Net cash
Others 17.7 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 Int. coverage (X) 6.0 5.9 6.7 22.2 49.5
Retained earnings 121.9 135.4 183.5 241.2 319.1 Int. & ST debt coverage (X) 0.7 0.5 1.1 18.8 49.5
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates Cash flow int. coverage (X) 3.2 (2.3) 9.7 18.0 51.2
Cash flow int. & ST debt (X) 0.4 (0.2) 1.6 15.3 51.2
Current ratio (X) 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.3
Quick ratio (X) 0.51 0.32 0.49 0.46 0.82
Gross debt (Rp b) 118 192 96 1 ‐
Net debt (Rp b) (33) 41 Net cash Net cash Net cash
Per share data (Rp)
EPS 53 46 50 67 85
BVPS 233 247 282 325 383
SPS 538 762 990 1,038 1,142
EBITDA/share 119 135 139 156 172
DPS 40 42 14 20 27
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
2
ANALYSTS’ COVERAGE / RESEARCH OFFICES
SINGAPORE MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES
Stephanie WONG Head of Research YEW Chee Yoon Head of Research Ricardo PUIG Head of Research
Regional Head of Institutional Research +603 2141 1555 cheeyoon@kimengkl.com +63 2 849 8835 ricardo_puig@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1451 swong@kimeng.com Strategy Strategy
Strategy Banks Property
Small & Mid Caps Telcos Telcos
Gregory YAP Property Laura DY‐LIACCO
+65 6432 1450 gyap@kimeng.com Conglomerates & others +63 2 849 8840 laura_dyliacco@atr.com.ph
Conglomerates LIEW Mee Kien Utilities
Technology & Manufacturing +603 2141 1555 meekien@kimengkl.com Conglomerates
Transport & Telcos Gaming Lovell SARREAL
Rohan SUPPIAH Media +63 2 849 8841 lovell_sarreal@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1455 rohan@kimeng.com Power Consumer
Airlines Construction Media
Marine & Offshore Research Team Kenneth NERECINA
Pauline LEE +603 2141 1555 +63 2 849 8839 kenneth_nerecina@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1453 paulinelee@kimeng.com Food & Beverage Conglomerates
Bank & Finance Manufacturing Cement
Consumer Plantations Ports/ Logistics
Retail Tobacco Katherine TAN
Wilson LIEW Technology +63 2 849 8843 kat_tan@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1454 wilsonliew@kimeng.com Banks
Hotel & Resort INDONESIA Construction
Property & Construction Katarina SETIAWAN Head of Research
Anni KUM +6221 2557 1125 ksetiawan@kimeng.co.id REGIONAL
+65 6432 1470 annikum@kimeng.com Consumer Luz LORENZO Economist
Industrials Infra +63 2 849 8836 luz_lorenzo@atr.com.ph
REITs Shipping Economics
James KOH Strategy
+65 6432 1431 jameskoh@kimeng.com Telcos ONG Seng Yeow
Infrastructure Others +65 6432 1832 ongsengyeow@kimeng.com
Resources Ricardo SILAEN Regional Products & Planning
Eric ONG +6221 2557 1126 rsilaen@kimeng.co.id
+65 6432 1857 ericong@kimeng.com Auto
Marine & Offshore Energy TAIWAN
David LOOMIS Heavy Equipment Gary Chia
+65 6432 1417 dloomis@kimeng.com Property Head of Greater China Research
Special Situations Resources +886 2 3518 7900 gary.chia@yuanta.com
Rahmi MARINA Boris Markovich
HONG KONG / CHINA +6221 2557 1128 rmarina@kimeng.co.id COO, Greater China Research
Edward FUNG Head of Research Banking +852 3969 9518 boris.markovic@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0632 edwardfung@kimeng.com.hk Lucky ARIESANDI, CFA John Brebeck, CFA
Power +6221 2557 1127 lariesandi@kimeng.co.id Head of Taiwan Strategy
Construction Cement Head of Research, Taiwan
Norman ZHANG Construction +886 2 3518 7906 john.brebeck@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0631 normanzhang@kimeng.com.hk Pharmaceutical George Chang, CFA
Technology Retail Head of Upstream Tech
Mid‐caps Adi N. WICAKSONO +886 2 3518 7907 george.chang@yuanta.com
Ivan CHEUNG +6221 2557 1130 anwicaksono@kimeng.co.id Vincent Chen
+852 2268 0634 ivancheung@kimeng.com.hk Generalist Head of Downstream Tech
Property Arwani PRANADJAYA +886 2 3518 7903 vincent.chen@yuanta.com
Industrial +6221 2557 1129 apranadjaya@kimeng.co.id Dennis Chan – NB Supply Chain
Ivan LI Technical analyst +886 2 3518 7913 dennis.chan@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0641 ivanli@kimeng.com.hk Andrew C Chen – IC Backend
Banking & Finance VIETNAM +886 2 3518 7940 andrew.chen@yuanta.com
TAM Tsz Wang Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen Ellen Chiu – Taiwan Consumer
+852 2268 0636 tamtszwang@kimeng.com.hk +84 838 38 66 36 x 163 tuyen.nguyen@kimeng.com.vn +886 2 3518 7936 ellen.chiu@yuanta.com
Telcos Pharmaceutical Danny Ho – Taiwan Petrochemical
Green Energy Confectionary and Beverage +886 2 3518 7923 danny.ho@yuanta.com
Jacqueline KO Oil and Gas Min Li – Alternative Energy
+852 2268 0633 jacquelineko@kimeng.com.hk Ngo Bich Van +852 3969 9521 min.li@yuanta.com
Consumer Staples +84 838 38 66 36 x 164 van.ngo@kimeng.com.vn May Lin – Taiwan Telecom
Grace DAI Bank +886 2 3518 7942 may.lin@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0640 gracedai@kimeng.com.hk Insurance Tess Wang – Taiwan Financials
Metal Nguyen Quang Duy +886 2 3518 7901 tess.wang@yuanta.com
+84 838 38 66 36 x 162 duy.nguyenquang@kimeng.com.vn
INDIA Shipping
Jigar SHAH Head of Research Seafood
+91 22 6623 2601 jshah@kimeng.com Rubber
Oil & Gas Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep
Transportation +84 838 38 66 36 x 166 diep.trinh@kimeng.com.vn
Anubhav GUPTA Property
+91 22 6623 2605 agupta@kimeng.com Construction
Property
Capital goods THAILAND
Rohit LEDWANI Kanchan KHANIJOU
+91226623 2625 rohit@kimeng.co.in + 662 658 6300 x 4750 kanchan@kimeng.co.th
Banking and Financial services Banks
Nikhil AGARWAL Construction Materials
+91226623 2611 nikhil@kimeng.co.in Nathavut SHIVARUCHIWONG Recommendation definitions
Cement + 662 658 6300 x 4730 nathavut@kimeng.co.th
Metals Property
Our recommendation is based on the
Haripreet BATRA Shipping following expected price
+91226623 2606 haripreet@imeng.co.in
Software performance within 12 months:
Education
Ganesh RAM +15% and above: BUY
+91226623 2607 ganeshram@kimeng.co.in
Telecom ‐15% to +15%: HOLD
Media ‐15% or worse: SELL
3
Astra Graphia 27 September 2010
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLOSURES
AND
DISCLAIMERS
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4
Astra Graphia 27 September 2010
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As of 27 September 2010, PT Kim Eng Securities and the covering analyst do not have any interest in companies mentioned in the
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The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject
securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
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5
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