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• Note that this tells you nothing about the magnitude of potential
losses in extreme cases. Use expected shortfall rather than VAR for
such cases.
Graphically
• The most difficult part is to understand the nature of risks that your portfolio is
exposed to and figuring out its expected loss distribution.
How to calculate VAR in EXCEL?
VaR
1
N (X )
where X is the confidence level,
is the standard deviation of the portfolio change over the time horizon,
1
N (.) is the inverse cumulative normal distribution (NORMSINV function in EXCEL)
The assumption behind this formula is that changes in the value of your portfolio is
normally distributed (not always a good assumption).
The formula shows that regardless of the time horizon, VaR is proportional to .
How to choose the time horizon
• The time horizon can differ from a few hours for an active trading
desk to one month for a pension fund.
• From (1) and (2) it’s easy to show that T-day VAR = 1-day VAR x √T
VaR ( X ) VaR ( X )
* N (X )
1
N (X )
Back-testing
• By back-testing, we can examine how many times over the last 100
days our losses exceeded $10,000. If our estimation is perfect, we
should find that only once…
k m k!( n k )!
Example
• One thing that you can do is to use the probability density function
associated with normal distributions
(x)
2
1
f ( x) exp
2
2
2
f(r)
r=-20% μ=10%
r
• So, based on the z-table we find that P(r < -20%) or put differently
P(Losses>$20,000) = 15.87%.
– Go to the z-table and find the value that satisfies P(z < ?) = 1%.
• z = -2.33
r 10%
– What is the r associated with z=-2.33? 2.33, r 59.9%
30%
• VAR(1-year; 99%)=59,900.
VAR vs. Expected Shortfall
• Suppose that a bank tells a trader that one-day 99% VAR of his
portfolio should not exceed $10 million. The trader can construct a
portfolio where there is a 99.1% chance that daily losses are less
than $10 million and a 0.9% chance that it is $500 million.
• End of chapter problems 8.1, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5 (a, b, c, d), 8.6, 8.7, 8.9,
8.12, 8.13, 8.14