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ICBP

Rp5,395 - OUTPERFORM

On a roll

Initiating coverage
Swati Chopra
swati.chopra@clsa.com We initiate coverage of Indofood CBP, Indonesia’s largest listed branded
food products company with an Outperform. Indonesia is at the inflection
point of multi-year growth in consumer products driven by surge in
middle class, hockey stick growth in modern trade and rising incomes.
ICBP is a key beneficiary of stronger rupiah as 10% stronger currency
could impact earnings by as much as 50%. That said, higher inflation and
related party transactions remains a key risk.

In a sweet spot
Indonesia is at the inflection point of a multi-year growth in consumer
7 October 2010 products in our view. There are 3.5m people moving to cities every year.
Urban households spend 80% more than rural ones. Additionally, there is an
Indonesia oligopolistic structure in branded consumer products such as noodles and
Consumer dairy products thanks to complex distribution network and emphasis on brand
equity. The growth in modern trade (14x that of the traditional market) is also
Reuters ICBP.JK
Bloomberg ICBP IJ improving access to consumer products.

Priced on 06 October 2010


The strong will get stronger
Jakarta Comp @ 3,603.4
Indofood CBP will expand both horizontally and vertically over next decade as
12M hi/lo / it rolls out new products in existing categories and enter into other branded
products. It will leverage on its deep distribution network, rich experience and
12M price target Rp6,000
±% potential +11% excellent franchise. Growth in instant noodles will be driven by increasing
Target set on 7 Oct 10 penetration in rural areas and improvement in product mix. Noodles make up
77% of EBIT and dairy products make up 20%.
Shares in issue 5,831.0m
Free float (est.) 20.0%
Key risks
Market cap US$3,527m A 10% increase in wheat, palm oil, milk prices impact margins by 15%, 8%,
3M average daily volume 3.7% respectively. A 10% stronger rupiah can impact earnings by 50%
Rp.0bn (US$m) assuming cost savings are not passed through. Currently Indofood is missing
Major shareholders
on the 17%+ industry growth in liquid milk, 18% of its dairy portfolio due to
Indofood sukses makmur 80.0% capacity constraints meaning when new capacity comes on stream, there
could be sharp increases in A&P to regain lost market share. Additionally,
there are several related party transactions between ICBP and its parent.

Premiums valuations
Investors are willing to pay premium for companies with a solid franchise,
leading industry position and quality earnings growth. We assign a 22.3x
Stock performance (%) target multiple matching regional peers and initiate coverage with
1M 3M 12M outperform.
Absolute 0.0 0.0 0.0
Relative 0.0 0.0 0.0 Financials
Abs (US$) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Year to 31 Jan 08A 09A 10CL 11CL 12CL
6,000
(Rp) (%)
150 Revenue (Rpbn) 12,043 16,333 17,603 19,251 21,107
5,740 Net profit (Rpbn) 339 1,078 1,535 1,569 1,712
100 EPS (Rp) 58.15 184.91 263.23 269.03 293.52
5,480
CL/consensus (0) (EPS%) - - - - -
5,220
50 EPS growth (% YoY) - 218.0 42.4 2.2 9.1
4,960 PE (x) 92.8 29.2 20.5 20.1 18.4
4,700 0 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3
Oct -10 FCF yield (%) (2.1) 3.1 4.5 4.4 3.9
ICBP (LHS)
Rel to Comp (RHS)
PB (x) 14.0 24.6 4.0 3.5 3.2
ROE (%) 15.5 56.5 33.2 19.4 19.0
Source: Bloomberg
Net debt/equity (%) 158.3 295.5 (22.4) (28.2) (30.7)
www.clsa.com Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, CapIQ and themarkets.com - and profit from our evalu@tor® proprietary database at clsa.com
On a roll ICBP - O-PF

In a sweet spot
Indonesia is at the inflection point of a multi-year growth in consumer
products in our view.

Figure 1

Indonesia is at the Value growth in FMCG in 2009


inflection point of a
multiyear growth in
consumer products in our 40 36
view 35 %
30
25 22
20 17
15 12 12 13
11
9 9
10 7 7
5
5
0
-5
-10 (7)
Taiwan

Zealand

Thailand

Hong
Kong

Vietnam
Philipines

Australia

Korea

Malaysia

Indonesia
Singapore

China

India
New

Source: Nielsen

Increasing urbanization, surging middle class and rising incomes will increase
penetration of noodles and dairy products. There are 3.5m people moving to
cities every year. Importantly, urban households spend 80% more than rural
ones.

Figure 2 Figure 3

Increase in urbanization Demographic dividend

200 mn people m people


180 45
160 40
140 35
120
30
100
80 25
60 20
40 15
20
10
-
5
1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010F

2015F

2020F

2025F

2030F

0
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Urban Rural
Population

Source: United Nations

Additionally, there is an oligopolistic structure in consumer branded products


such as noodles, dairy thanks to complex distribution network and emphasis
on brand equity. ICBP and Wings control 90% of the instant noodle market.

7 October 2010 swati.chopra@clsa.com 2


On a roll ICBP - O-PF

Convenience to The growth in modern trade (14x that of the traditional market) is improving
consumers and access to access to consumer products. Modern trade now makes up 37-38% of the
refrigeration for retailers
total grocery trade in Indonesia vs. only 25% in 2002. We expect a J-curve
will speed up penetration
of dairy products growth in modern trade. There are currently only about 50-60 modern trade
stores per million population vs. Malaysia at 156, Singapore at 287 and
Thailand at 129. On the other hand, there are still over 8,000 traditional
counter services store per million people in Indonesia.

The winners from shift to Growth in minimarkets (growing twice the rate of hypermarket) is the key
modern trade will be driver for increasing modern trade penetration. The winners from this shift
companies with solid
from traditional to modern trade will be companies with solid franchises, good
franchises, good brand
presence in multiple brand presence in multiple product categories and those who are constantly
product categories innovating. Indofood CBP and Unilever Indonesia both fall in this category.
Convenience to consumers and access to refrigeration for retailers will speed
up penetration of dairy products. Indofood launched its first vegetation noodle
recently.

Figure 4 Figure 5

Share of modern trade growing fast Number of stores per million population

38 %
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Modern trade share (%)

Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

7 October 2010 swati.chopra@clsa.com 3


On a roll ICBP - O-PF

The strong will get stronger


Indofood CBP will expand both horizontally and vertically over next decade as
it rolls out new products in existing categories and enter into other branded
products. It will leverage on its deep distribution network, rich experience and
excellent franchise. Growth in instant noodles will be driven by increasing
penetration in rural areas and improvement in product mix. Noodles make up
77% of EBIT and dairy products make up 20%.

Figure 6 Figure 7

Contribution to revenue Contribution to Ebit

120 120
% Rp bn

100 100

0 14 18 21
0 21 22 26
20 19 80
80 20 22 24 26 29
60
60
90 82
88 89 40 77 75 75 73
40 70
70 71 70 69 60
67 65 62
20
20
0
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Noodles Dairy Food seasoning Snack food Nutrition and special food
Noodles Dairy Food seasoning Snack food Nutrition and special food

Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

Noodles is the cash cow and dairy is the growth driver


We forecast a 6% pa operating profit cagr for noodles from 2010-2015CL vs.
19% pa for dairy business.

Price war has clearly ended in noodles as every price increases since 2007
has been matched by Wings group (closest competitor with 15% market
share). Falling commodity prices since its peak in 2008 and stronger currency
means ICBP margins have gone back to 2001 levels when there was no Wings
noodle.

Figure 8 Figure 9

ICBP EBIT margins 1997A-2010CL ICBP EBIT margins from 1Q07-2Q10


30.0 % 20.0 %
17.9
24.1 18.0
25.0
20.5 21.0 16.0
20.0 18.9 18.0 13.5
17.1 14.0 13.3
16.2 12.2
15.2 11.6
15.0 12.0
12.6
10.7 9.7
10.0
10.0 8.0
7.2 8.0
3.7 4.3
5.0 6.0
0.7 3.6 3.2 3.5
4.0 2.6
0.0 1.8 2.1
2.0 1.0
97A

98A

99A

00A

01A

02A

03A

04A

05A

06A

07A

08A

09A

10CL

0.0
1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

We believe Indofood’s sustainable noodle margins are about 13-14%.


Stronger rupiah or sharp decrease in costs of wheat/palm oil can result in
further margin expansion in a quarter or two but sustainable margins in our
view are about 13-14%. We are assuming 14%.

7 October 2010 swati.chopra@clsa.com 4


On a roll ICBP - O-PF

Let us compare ICBP noodle margins with the world’s largest player in
instantly noodles- Tingyi of China. It produces 14.5bn packs per year.

Figure 10 Figure 11

Tingyi EBIT margins 2000-2012CL Tingyi EBIT margins from 1Q05-2Q10

16% 20 19
14% 18
14% 13%
13% 13%
16
12% 14
14
10% 9% 12 12 12
10% 12 11 11 11 11
8% 8% 10 10
7% 8% 7% 8% 9
8% 10 8 9
8 8 7
8 6
6% 6
6 5
4% 5 4
4%
4
2% 2

0% 0

1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

10CL

11CL

12CL

Instant noodles

Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

Growth will come from Growth in noodles will come from increase in penetration in rural areas and
increase in penetration in improvement in product mix. Urban dwellers consume twice as many noodles
rural areas and
than rural dwellers. To put into perspective, people in Jakarta consume
improvement in product
mix 104packs/annum vs. national average of 59 packs /annum. Per capita
consumption of noodles in Indonesia is 30% lower than in South Korea.

Increase in consumption of higher end packaged noodles (Indomie and


Supermie as people trade up) and increase in penetration of cup/bowl noodles
will improve margins as cup/bowl noodles have a higher margin than
packaged instant noodles.

Figure 12 Figure 13

Per capita consumption of noodles in Indonesia CAGR of market size of noodles 2004-2009
(kg/capita)

South Korea 8.40 India 23%


Indonesia 5.80 Vietnam 18%
Vietnam 5.10 Indonesia 11%
Malaysia 3.90 Philippines 11%
C hina 2.90 China 10%
Philippines 2.40 Malaysia 8%
Taiwan 2.20 Thailand 7%
Thailand 2.00 Singapore 5%
Singapore 2.00 4%
South Korea
India 0.10
Taiw an 0%
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

7 October 2010 swati.chopra@clsa.com 5


On a roll ICBP - O-PF

Tingyi product mix

Bowl/cup noodles prices Tingyi's bowl noodles enjoyed very strong volume growth over 2003-07 (16-
are 2x that of packaged 40% YoY) when the company started to focus on promoting the product to
noodles
sustain its gross margin amid rising cost pressure. Also thanks to the strong
economic growth in China, bowl noodles, which offer convenience to
travellers, students and immigrant workers, have seen increasing demand.

Figure 14 Figure 15

Selling price for Tingyi noodles Instant noodle product mix of Tingyi
40
US cents/package 120%
35 31.7 100%
30
80%
25
60%
20 17.3
40%
15
20%
10
0%
5
1.6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0 Bowl noodles Packaged noodles Snack noodles
Bowl noodles Pac kaged noodles Snac k noodles

Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

For Indofood, bowl/cup For ICBP, bowl/cup noodles is currently less than 4% of total noodle sales.
noodles is less than 4% The margins are estimated to be much higher than packaged instant noodle
of total noodle sales
as selling price is twice that of packaged noodle. We understand that this
segment is growing 20%+ per annum and Indofood is adding new lines.

Dairy is the growth driver

Future growth in consumer branded business will be driven by dairy products.


We forecast a 6% pa operating profit cagr for noodles from 2010-2015CL vs.
19% pa for dairy business.

Figure 16

Breakup of dairy industry

Others Fresh/UHT
14% milk
18%

Condensed
milk
29%
Powder milk
39%

Source: Euromonitor. Note this excludes yoghurt and cheese

ICBP has 38% market shares in condensed milk and is second largest player
in UHT/fresh milk with 23% market share. Per capita consumption of milk and
dairy products in Indonesia is still very low compared to peers. This explains
why the dairy products industry has been growing double digits in the last
few years.

7 October 2010 swati.chopra@clsa.com 6


On a roll ICBP - O-PF

Figure 17 Figure 18

Market share by company in condensed milk Market share by company in liquid milk
Others Others
2%
10%
Ultrajaya
Diamond
4%
3%
Nestlé SA
Greenfields
21% ICBP Ultrajaya
Indonesia PT
38% 39%
10%

Royal Friesland
15%

Royal Friesland ICBP


35% 23%

Source: Euromonitor Note: Liquid milk: UHT/Fresh/flavoured milk drinks

The per capita Indonesia’s per capita milk consumption is about 9 litres per year which is
consumption of dairy is significantly lower than in China at 20 litres, Thailand at 20 litres, Malaysia at
still very low in Indonesia 35 litres. Increase in modern trade penetration should lead to increase
accessibility of dairy products.

Figure 19 Figure 20

Per capita consumption of dairy products in 2008 Cagr of market size of dairy 2004-2009

60 US$
India 17%
50 50.2 45.6
14%
Vietnam
40 14%
China
28.6
30 24.8 Indonesia 13%
20 16.3 15.2 Philippines 8%
9.4 8.3 Thailand 7%
10 5.4
Singapore 5%
0
Malaysia 3%
Taiwan

Thailand

Philippines

Vietnam
Malaysia

Indonesia

India
Singapore

China

South Korea 3%

Taiwan -1%

2008 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Source: Euromonitor

7 October 2010 swati.chopra@clsa.com 7


On a roll ICBP - O-PF

Key risks
A 10% increase in wheat, palm oil, milk prices will impact margins by 15%,
8%, 3.7% respectively. A 10% stronger rupiah can impact earnings by 50%
assuming cost savings are not passed through.

Figure 21

Sensitivity analysis
Impact of 10% change in
Wheat price 15.0%
CPO price 8.0%
Milk price 3.5%
Rupiah exchange rate 50.0%
Sugar prices 2.0%
Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

Figure 22

EBIT margins (%)


07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Noodle 0.7 4.3 12.6 15.2 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0
Dairy 0.0 0.0 7.5 13.3 13.4 12.5 12.0 13.0
Food seasoning 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Snack food 0.5 3.4 5.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Nutrition and special food 6.2 5.2 6.8 9.0 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7
Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

Currently Indofood is missing on the 17%+ industry growth in liquid milk due
to capacity constraints meaning when new capacity comes on stream (in
2012 in phases), there could be sharp increases in A&P (20% of opex) to
regain lost market share.

Figure 19 Figure 24

Estimated cogs breakdown Estimated opex breakdown

Others
7%
Milk
8% Wheat Freight and
Others, 15%
23% handling, 22%
Sugar
3%
Depreciation and Salaries and
overhead wages, 17%
10%
Palm oil Advertising and
12% promotions,
20%
Royalty, 12%
Packaging
19% Seasoning Distribution ,
Ingredients 12% 14%
6%

Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

Additionally, there are several related party transactions between ICBP and its
parent.

Related party transactions


There are several related party transactions between Indofood CBP and
Indofood and companies affiliated to Salim Group. Almost 1/3 of the Bogasari
sales is to ICBP for instant noodles while 25-26% of cooking oil is sold to
ICBP. ICBP purchases flour and cooking oil from Indofood, its holding

7 October 2010 swati.chopra@clsa.com 8


On a roll ICBP - O-PF

company. The company states that the transaction price will be determined
by both parties but will not be higher than the market prices. This is beneficial
term. The cooking oil prices will be at arms length meaning market prices.

ICBP distribution agreement with Indofood


The distributor of Indofood consumer branded business will be Indofood’s
distribution arm. The agreements are set yearly. Under these agreements,
ICBP determines the selling prices of the products to the distributors. Nearly
70% of ICBP sales as of 3M10 were to Indofood distributor arm.

Management services
ICBP will pay a management fee of 0.25% of sales to Indofood for providing
technical, management services such as technical support, information
technology, finance and accounting, legal matters etc. Indolakto and Surya
Rengo containers also have separated management services agreements with
Indofood.

Brands
ICBP pays a royalty of 1.5% of net sales on quarterly basis to Indofood, its
parent company for use of brands. ICBP licenses all its brands from Indofood
except for dairy which it owns, food seasoning product (except syrups) which
are licensed to NICI from Nestle and Indofood and Cheetos and Lays (chips)
which are licensed from Pepsi Co.

7 October 2010 swati.chopra@clsa.com 9


On a roll ICBP - O-PF

Premiums valuations
Investors are willing to pay premium for companies with a solid franchise,
leading industry position and quality earnings growth. We assign a 22.3x
target multiple matching regional peers and initiate coverage with
outperform. Our DCF also gives us a similar value. We are using a WACC of
10% and growth rate of 3%.

Figure 25

Peers
P/E EV/EBITDA' Ebitda mgn (%) ROE
10CL 11CL 12CL 10CL 11CL 12CL 10CL 11CL 12CL 10CL 11CL 12CL
ICBP IJ 20.6 20.1 18.4 12.0 11.2 10.1 17.1 16.4 16.4 33.2 18.6 18.2
Asian Citrus 9.5 8.0 7.2 7.5 6.3 5.5 74.9 74.2 74.6 17.6 17.8 17.1
Want Want China 32.0 26.9 23.0 21.5 17.3 14.3 25.6 25.4 24.9 38.3 42.2 45.1
Uni-President China 25.9 19.6 15.7 12.1 9.6 8.0 9.9 10.2 10.0 10.8 13.3 15.2
Tingyi 35.0 27.2 23.5 17.4 13.6 11.3 14.4 14.9 14.6 28.3 30.5 29.6
China Foods 49.3 43.3 41.0 18.4 16.3 15.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 6.6 7.3 7.5
China Yurun Food 19.2 16.7 15.1 16.0 13.7 12.0 16.3 15.0 13.6 25.4 22.4 21.3
Uni-President Ent 17.0 15.7 14.6 27.1 25.0 22.6 7.3 7.3 7.4 13.5 13.5 13.5
China Mengniu Dairy 36.3 38.9 41.0 17.1 17.2 17.0 6.3 5.9 5.6 10.7 9.3 8.3
Ajinomoto 23.7 18.6 16.5 3.4 3.0 2.7 10.2 10.6 10.9 4.0 4.8 5.3
Indofood 23.6 19.9 17.7 9.3 8.0 7.4 17.1 18.1 18.2 21.6 21.9 21.2
Mayora Indah 17.5 13.4 10.9 9.7 7.8 6.3 13.1 13.3 13.1 25.1 26.1 25.7
Nestle India 38.9 33.0 28.7 24.8 20.7 17.7 20.0 20.5 20.6 121.5 114.9 108.8
Universal Robina 10.5 9.4 - 7.3 6.2 - 20.6 20.6 - 20.7 20.1 -
Average 26.0 22.4 19.6 14.7 12.7 10.8 18.5 18.5 16.8 26.5 26.5 24.5
Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

7 October 2010 swati.chopra@clsa.com 10


On a roll ICBP - O-PF

Summary financials
Year to 31 January 2008A 2009A 2010CL 2011CL 2012CL
Summary P&L forecast (Rpbn)
Revenue 12,043 16,333 17,603 19,251 21,107
Op Ebitda 674 2,297 3,020 3,156 3,461
Op Ebit 515 1,800 2,500 2,569 2,775
Growth will pick up from
Interest income 13 21 0 0 0
2012 onwards when new
Interest expense (24) (77) (75) (77) (77)
capacity comes in for
Other items 25 (141) (222) (222) (222)
dairy
Profit before tax 529 1,603 2,203 2,270 2,476
Taxation (174) (430) (551) (567) (619)
Minorities/Pref divs (16) (94) (117) (134) (145)
Net profit 339 1,078 1,535 1,569 1,712

Summary cashflow forecast (Rpbn)


Operating profit 515 1,800 2,500 2,569 2,775
Operating adjustments 0 0 0 0 0
Depreciation/amortisation 158 497 520 587 686
Working capital changes (365) (83) (53) 213 (167)
Net interest/taxes/other (176) (722) (965) (1,000) (1,063)
Net operating cashflow 132 1,493 2,002 2,369 2,231
ICBP can funds its capex
Capital expenditure (801) (504) (593) (1,000) (1,000)
internally
Free cashflow (669) 988 1,409 1,369 1,231
Acq/inv/disposals (2) (2) 3 0 0
Int, invt & associate div 0 0 0 0 0
Net investing cashflow (803) (507) (590) (1,000) (1,000)
Increase in loans 4,101 1,000 (325) (4,120) 0
Dividends 0 0 0 (627) (685)
Net equity raised/other (3,285) (1,797) 5,252 0 0
Net financing cashflow 816 (797) 4,927 (4,747) (685)
Incr/(decr) in net cash 145 189 6,339 (3,379) 547
Exch rate movements 0 0 0 0 0
Opening cash 371 516 705 7,044 3,666
Closing cash 516 705 7,044 3,666 4,212

Summary balance sheet forecast (Rpbn)


Solid balance sheet
Cash & equivalents 516 705 7,044 3,666 4,212
Debtors 1,580 1,448 1,784 1,846 2,024
Inventories 1,392 1,311 1,330 1,370 1,511
Other current assets 159 337 343 343 343
Fixed assets 2,177 2,181 2,251 2,665 2,978
Intangible assets 1,593 1,504 1,484 1,484 1,484
Other term assets 2,771 2,719 2,678 2,678 2,678
Total assets 10,206 10,224 16,931 14,067 15,247
Short-term debt 4,456 5,476 5,169 1,049 1,049
Creditors 1,241 901 1,267 1,582 1,735
Other current liabs 778 1,002 944 944 944
Long-term debt/CBs 56 31 11 11 11
Provisions/other LT liabs 1,149 1,190 1,225 1,225 1,225
Minorities/other equity 280 346 388 388 388
Shareholder funds 2,245 1,279 7,926 8,868 9,895
Good earnings quality Total liabs & equity 10,206 10,224 16,931 14,067 15,247

Ratio analysis
Revenue growth (% YoY) - 35.6 7.8 9.4 9.6
Ebitda growth (% YoY) - 240.9 31.5 4.5 9.7
Ebitda margin (%) 5.6 14.1 17.2 16.4 16.4
Net profit margin (%) 2.8 6.6 8.7 8.1 8.1
Dividend payout (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 6.3
Effective tax rate (%) 32.9 26.8 25.0 25.0 25.0
Ebitda/net int exp (x) 59.0 40.5 40.3 41.0 44.9
Net debt/equity (%) 158.3 295.5 (22.4) (28.2) (30.7)
ROE (%) 15.5 56.5 33.2 19.4 19.0
ROIC (%) 6.9 17.3 24.6 24.8 25.7
EVA®/IC (%) (5.6) 4.7 11.9 12.2 13.1
Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

7 October 2010 swati.chopra@clsa.com 11


On a roll ICBP - O-PF

Recommendation history - Indofood Consumer Branded Products ICBP IJ


Date Rec level Closing price Target
07 October 2010 Outperform 5,395.00 6,000.00
Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

Key to CLSA investment rankings: BUY = Expected to outperform the local market by >10%; O-PF = Expected to outperform the local market
by 0-10%; U-PF = Expected to underperform the local market by 0-10%; SELL = Expected to underperform the local market by >10%.
Performance is defined as 12-month total return (including dividends).

©2010 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”). Note: In the interests of timeliness, this document has not been edited.
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7 October 2010 swati.chopra@clsa.com 12

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