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Riset Indofood CBP Oleh CLSA
Riset Indofood CBP Oleh CLSA
Rp5,395 - OUTPERFORM
On a roll
Initiating coverage
Swati Chopra
swati.chopra@clsa.com We initiate coverage of Indofood CBP, Indonesia’s largest listed branded
food products company with an Outperform. Indonesia is at the inflection
point of multi-year growth in consumer products driven by surge in
middle class, hockey stick growth in modern trade and rising incomes.
ICBP is a key beneficiary of stronger rupiah as 10% stronger currency
could impact earnings by as much as 50%. That said, higher inflation and
related party transactions remains a key risk.
In a sweet spot
Indonesia is at the inflection point of a multi-year growth in consumer
7 October 2010 products in our view. There are 3.5m people moving to cities every year.
Urban households spend 80% more than rural ones. Additionally, there is an
Indonesia oligopolistic structure in branded consumer products such as noodles and
Consumer dairy products thanks to complex distribution network and emphasis on brand
equity. The growth in modern trade (14x that of the traditional market) is also
Reuters ICBP.JK
Bloomberg ICBP IJ improving access to consumer products.
Premiums valuations
Investors are willing to pay premium for companies with a solid franchise,
leading industry position and quality earnings growth. We assign a 22.3x
Stock performance (%) target multiple matching regional peers and initiate coverage with
1M 3M 12M outperform.
Absolute 0.0 0.0 0.0
Relative 0.0 0.0 0.0 Financials
Abs (US$) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Year to 31 Jan 08A 09A 10CL 11CL 12CL
6,000
(Rp) (%)
150 Revenue (Rpbn) 12,043 16,333 17,603 19,251 21,107
5,740 Net profit (Rpbn) 339 1,078 1,535 1,569 1,712
100 EPS (Rp) 58.15 184.91 263.23 269.03 293.52
5,480
CL/consensus (0) (EPS%) - - - - -
5,220
50 EPS growth (% YoY) - 218.0 42.4 2.2 9.1
4,960 PE (x) 92.8 29.2 20.5 20.1 18.4
4,700 0 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3
Oct -10 FCF yield (%) (2.1) 3.1 4.5 4.4 3.9
ICBP (LHS)
Rel to Comp (RHS)
PB (x) 14.0 24.6 4.0 3.5 3.2
ROE (%) 15.5 56.5 33.2 19.4 19.0
Source: Bloomberg
Net debt/equity (%) 158.3 295.5 (22.4) (28.2) (30.7)
www.clsa.com Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets
Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, CapIQ and themarkets.com - and profit from our evalu@tor® proprietary database at clsa.com
On a roll ICBP - O-PF
In a sweet spot
Indonesia is at the inflection point of a multi-year growth in consumer
products in our view.
Figure 1
Zealand
Thailand
Hong
Kong
Vietnam
Philipines
Australia
Korea
Malaysia
Indonesia
Singapore
China
India
New
Source: Nielsen
Increasing urbanization, surging middle class and rising incomes will increase
penetration of noodles and dairy products. There are 3.5m people moving to
cities every year. Importantly, urban households spend 80% more than rural
ones.
Figure 2 Figure 3
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010F
2015F
2020F
2025F
2030F
0
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Urban Rural
Population
Convenience to The growth in modern trade (14x that of the traditional market) is improving
consumers and access to access to consumer products. Modern trade now makes up 37-38% of the
refrigeration for retailers
total grocery trade in Indonesia vs. only 25% in 2002. We expect a J-curve
will speed up penetration
of dairy products growth in modern trade. There are currently only about 50-60 modern trade
stores per million population vs. Malaysia at 156, Singapore at 287 and
Thailand at 129. On the other hand, there are still over 8,000 traditional
counter services store per million people in Indonesia.
The winners from shift to Growth in minimarkets (growing twice the rate of hypermarket) is the key
modern trade will be driver for increasing modern trade penetration. The winners from this shift
companies with solid
from traditional to modern trade will be companies with solid franchises, good
franchises, good brand
presence in multiple brand presence in multiple product categories and those who are constantly
product categories innovating. Indofood CBP and Unilever Indonesia both fall in this category.
Convenience to consumers and access to refrigeration for retailers will speed
up penetration of dairy products. Indofood launched its first vegetation noodle
recently.
Figure 4 Figure 5
Share of modern trade growing fast Number of stores per million population
38 %
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Modern trade share (%)
Figure 6 Figure 7
120 120
% Rp bn
100 100
0 14 18 21
0 21 22 26
20 19 80
80 20 22 24 26 29
60
60
90 82
88 89 40 77 75 75 73
40 70
70 71 70 69 60
67 65 62
20
20
0
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Noodles Dairy Food seasoning Snack food Nutrition and special food
Noodles Dairy Food seasoning Snack food Nutrition and special food
Price war has clearly ended in noodles as every price increases since 2007
has been matched by Wings group (closest competitor with 15% market
share). Falling commodity prices since its peak in 2008 and stronger currency
means ICBP margins have gone back to 2001 levels when there was no Wings
noodle.
Figure 8 Figure 9
98A
99A
00A
01A
02A
03A
04A
05A
06A
07A
08A
09A
10CL
0.0
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
Let us compare ICBP noodle margins with the world’s largest player in
instantly noodles- Tingyi of China. It produces 14.5bn packs per year.
Figure 10 Figure 11
16% 20 19
14% 18
14% 13%
13% 13%
16
12% 14
14
10% 9% 12 12 12
10% 12 11 11 11 11
8% 8% 10 10
7% 8% 7% 8% 9
8% 10 8 9
8 8 7
8 6
6% 6
6 5
4% 5 4
4%
4
2% 2
0% 0
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10CL
11CL
12CL
Instant noodles
Growth will come from Growth in noodles will come from increase in penetration in rural areas and
increase in penetration in improvement in product mix. Urban dwellers consume twice as many noodles
rural areas and
than rural dwellers. To put into perspective, people in Jakarta consume
improvement in product
mix 104packs/annum vs. national average of 59 packs /annum. Per capita
consumption of noodles in Indonesia is 30% lower than in South Korea.
Figure 12 Figure 13
Per capita consumption of noodles in Indonesia CAGR of market size of noodles 2004-2009
(kg/capita)
Bowl/cup noodles prices Tingyi's bowl noodles enjoyed very strong volume growth over 2003-07 (16-
are 2x that of packaged 40% YoY) when the company started to focus on promoting the product to
noodles
sustain its gross margin amid rising cost pressure. Also thanks to the strong
economic growth in China, bowl noodles, which offer convenience to
travellers, students and immigrant workers, have seen increasing demand.
Figure 14 Figure 15
Selling price for Tingyi noodles Instant noodle product mix of Tingyi
40
US cents/package 120%
35 31.7 100%
30
80%
25
60%
20 17.3
40%
15
20%
10
0%
5
1.6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0 Bowl noodles Packaged noodles Snack noodles
Bowl noodles Pac kaged noodles Snac k noodles
For Indofood, bowl/cup For ICBP, bowl/cup noodles is currently less than 4% of total noodle sales.
noodles is less than 4% The margins are estimated to be much higher than packaged instant noodle
of total noodle sales
as selling price is twice that of packaged noodle. We understand that this
segment is growing 20%+ per annum and Indofood is adding new lines.
Figure 16
Others Fresh/UHT
14% milk
18%
Condensed
milk
29%
Powder milk
39%
ICBP has 38% market shares in condensed milk and is second largest player
in UHT/fresh milk with 23% market share. Per capita consumption of milk and
dairy products in Indonesia is still very low compared to peers. This explains
why the dairy products industry has been growing double digits in the last
few years.
Figure 17 Figure 18
Market share by company in condensed milk Market share by company in liquid milk
Others Others
2%
10%
Ultrajaya
Diamond
4%
3%
Nestlé SA
Greenfields
21% ICBP Ultrajaya
Indonesia PT
38% 39%
10%
Royal Friesland
15%
The per capita Indonesia’s per capita milk consumption is about 9 litres per year which is
consumption of dairy is significantly lower than in China at 20 litres, Thailand at 20 litres, Malaysia at
still very low in Indonesia 35 litres. Increase in modern trade penetration should lead to increase
accessibility of dairy products.
Figure 19 Figure 20
Per capita consumption of dairy products in 2008 Cagr of market size of dairy 2004-2009
60 US$
India 17%
50 50.2 45.6
14%
Vietnam
40 14%
China
28.6
30 24.8 Indonesia 13%
20 16.3 15.2 Philippines 8%
9.4 8.3 Thailand 7%
10 5.4
Singapore 5%
0
Malaysia 3%
Taiwan
Thailand
Philippines
Vietnam
Malaysia
Indonesia
India
Singapore
China
South Korea 3%
Taiwan -1%
Source: Euromonitor
Key risks
A 10% increase in wheat, palm oil, milk prices will impact margins by 15%,
8%, 3.7% respectively. A 10% stronger rupiah can impact earnings by 50%
assuming cost savings are not passed through.
Figure 21
Sensitivity analysis
Impact of 10% change in
Wheat price 15.0%
CPO price 8.0%
Milk price 3.5%
Rupiah exchange rate 50.0%
Sugar prices 2.0%
Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets
Figure 22
Currently Indofood is missing on the 17%+ industry growth in liquid milk due
to capacity constraints meaning when new capacity comes on stream (in
2012 in phases), there could be sharp increases in A&P (20% of opex) to
regain lost market share.
Figure 19 Figure 24
Others
7%
Milk
8% Wheat Freight and
Others, 15%
23% handling, 22%
Sugar
3%
Depreciation and Salaries and
overhead wages, 17%
10%
Palm oil Advertising and
12% promotions,
20%
Royalty, 12%
Packaging
19% Seasoning Distribution ,
Ingredients 12% 14%
6%
Additionally, there are several related party transactions between ICBP and its
parent.
company. The company states that the transaction price will be determined
by both parties but will not be higher than the market prices. This is beneficial
term. The cooking oil prices will be at arms length meaning market prices.
Management services
ICBP will pay a management fee of 0.25% of sales to Indofood for providing
technical, management services such as technical support, information
technology, finance and accounting, legal matters etc. Indolakto and Surya
Rengo containers also have separated management services agreements with
Indofood.
Brands
ICBP pays a royalty of 1.5% of net sales on quarterly basis to Indofood, its
parent company for use of brands. ICBP licenses all its brands from Indofood
except for dairy which it owns, food seasoning product (except syrups) which
are licensed to NICI from Nestle and Indofood and Cheetos and Lays (chips)
which are licensed from Pepsi Co.
Premiums valuations
Investors are willing to pay premium for companies with a solid franchise,
leading industry position and quality earnings growth. We assign a 22.3x
target multiple matching regional peers and initiate coverage with
outperform. Our DCF also gives us a similar value. We are using a WACC of
10% and growth rate of 3%.
Figure 25
Peers
P/E EV/EBITDA' Ebitda mgn (%) ROE
10CL 11CL 12CL 10CL 11CL 12CL 10CL 11CL 12CL 10CL 11CL 12CL
ICBP IJ 20.6 20.1 18.4 12.0 11.2 10.1 17.1 16.4 16.4 33.2 18.6 18.2
Asian Citrus 9.5 8.0 7.2 7.5 6.3 5.5 74.9 74.2 74.6 17.6 17.8 17.1
Want Want China 32.0 26.9 23.0 21.5 17.3 14.3 25.6 25.4 24.9 38.3 42.2 45.1
Uni-President China 25.9 19.6 15.7 12.1 9.6 8.0 9.9 10.2 10.0 10.8 13.3 15.2
Tingyi 35.0 27.2 23.5 17.4 13.6 11.3 14.4 14.9 14.6 28.3 30.5 29.6
China Foods 49.3 43.3 41.0 18.4 16.3 15.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 6.6 7.3 7.5
China Yurun Food 19.2 16.7 15.1 16.0 13.7 12.0 16.3 15.0 13.6 25.4 22.4 21.3
Uni-President Ent 17.0 15.7 14.6 27.1 25.0 22.6 7.3 7.3 7.4 13.5 13.5 13.5
China Mengniu Dairy 36.3 38.9 41.0 17.1 17.2 17.0 6.3 5.9 5.6 10.7 9.3 8.3
Ajinomoto 23.7 18.6 16.5 3.4 3.0 2.7 10.2 10.6 10.9 4.0 4.8 5.3
Indofood 23.6 19.9 17.7 9.3 8.0 7.4 17.1 18.1 18.2 21.6 21.9 21.2
Mayora Indah 17.5 13.4 10.9 9.7 7.8 6.3 13.1 13.3 13.1 25.1 26.1 25.7
Nestle India 38.9 33.0 28.7 24.8 20.7 17.7 20.0 20.5 20.6 121.5 114.9 108.8
Universal Robina 10.5 9.4 - 7.3 6.2 - 20.6 20.6 - 20.7 20.1 -
Average 26.0 22.4 19.6 14.7 12.7 10.8 18.5 18.5 16.8 26.5 26.5 24.5
Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets
Summary financials
Year to 31 January 2008A 2009A 2010CL 2011CL 2012CL
Summary P&L forecast (Rpbn)
Revenue 12,043 16,333 17,603 19,251 21,107
Op Ebitda 674 2,297 3,020 3,156 3,461
Op Ebit 515 1,800 2,500 2,569 2,775
Growth will pick up from
Interest income 13 21 0 0 0
2012 onwards when new
Interest expense (24) (77) (75) (77) (77)
capacity comes in for
Other items 25 (141) (222) (222) (222)
dairy
Profit before tax 529 1,603 2,203 2,270 2,476
Taxation (174) (430) (551) (567) (619)
Minorities/Pref divs (16) (94) (117) (134) (145)
Net profit 339 1,078 1,535 1,569 1,712
Ratio analysis
Revenue growth (% YoY) - 35.6 7.8 9.4 9.6
Ebitda growth (% YoY) - 240.9 31.5 4.5 9.7
Ebitda margin (%) 5.6 14.1 17.2 16.4 16.4
Net profit margin (%) 2.8 6.6 8.7 8.1 8.1
Dividend payout (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 6.3
Effective tax rate (%) 32.9 26.8 25.0 25.0 25.0
Ebitda/net int exp (x) 59.0 40.5 40.3 41.0 44.9
Net debt/equity (%) 158.3 295.5 (22.4) (28.2) (30.7)
ROE (%) 15.5 56.5 33.2 19.4 19.0
ROIC (%) 6.9 17.3 24.6 24.8 25.7
EVA®/IC (%) (5.6) 4.7 11.9 12.2 13.1
Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets
Key to CLSA investment rankings: BUY = Expected to outperform the local market by >10%; O-PF = Expected to outperform the local market
by 0-10%; U-PF = Expected to underperform the local market by 0-10%; SELL = Expected to underperform the local market by >10%.
Performance is defined as 12-month total return (including dividends).
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