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RAVI MEENA
Demand in economics means effective demand,
that is one which meets with all its three crucial
characteristics; desire to have a good, willingness to
pay for that good & ability to pay for that good.
Delphi Method”.
In this technique, a panel of disinterested
technical experts is presented with a
questionnaire regarding a forecast. The answers
are collected, processed, and re-distributed to the
panel, making sure that all information contributed
by any panel member is available to all members,
but on an anonymous basis. Each expert reflects
on the gathering opinion. A second questionnaire
is then distributed to the panel, and the process is
repeated until a consensus forecast is reached.
Customer Surveys are sometimes conducted
over the telephone or on street corners, at
shopping malls, and so forth. The new product is
displayed or described, and potential customers
are asked whether they would be interested in
purchasing the item. While this approach can help
to isolate attractive or unattractive product
features, experience has shown that "intent to
purchase" as measured in this way is difficult to
translate into a meaningful demand forecast. This
falls short of being a true “demand experiment”.
Consumer Panels are also used in the early
phases of product development. Here a small
group of potential customers are brought together
in a room where they can use the product and
discuss it among themselves. Panel members are
often paid a nominal amount for their participation.
Like surveys, these procedures are more useful
for analyzing product attributes than for estimating
demand, and they do not constitute true “demand
experiments” because no purchases take place
Test Marketing is often employed after new
product development but prior to a full-scale
national launch of a new brand or product. The
idea is to choose a relatively small, reasonably
isolated, yet somehow demographically "typical"
market area. The total marketing plan for the item,
including advertising, promotions, and distribution
tactics, is "rolled out" and implemented in the test
market, and measurements of product awareness,
market penetration, and market share are made.
Scanner Panel Data procedures have recently been
developed that permit demand experimentation on
existing brands and products. In these procedures, a
large set of household customers agrees to participate
in an ongoing study of their grocery buying habits.
Panel members agree to submit information about the
number of individuals in the household, their ages,
household income, and so forth. Whenever they buy
groceries at a supermarket participating in the
research, their household identity is captured along
with the identity and price of every item they
purchased.
Econometric models, such as discrete choice
models and multiple regression. More elaborate
systems involving sets of simultaneous regression
equations can also be attempted. These advanced
models are not generally applicable to the task of
forecasting demand in a logistics system.
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