Calculating Conditional Probability

If E and F are events, then the probability of E given F is

P(E F)
P(E|F) =
P(F)

If all outcomes are equally likely, then we can also use the alternative formula

n(E F)
P(E|F) =
n(F)

(Recall that n(G) means the number of outcomes in the event G.)

For experimental probability, we can also use the alternative formula

fr(E F)
P(E|F) =
fr(F)

(Recall that fr(G) means the frequency of the event G.)

I have used Bayes’ theorem to compute

P(S) = P(F) = 0.5

P(P|S) = .84, P(N|S) =.16

P(P|F) = .36, P(N|F) =.64

a) P(S|P) = 0.7

and P(F|N) = 0.2

Ans. (B)

5 K = offer to switch

10 K = Offer to switch

20 K = Offer to switch

40 K = DO Not offer to switch