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Solar PV Market and Thin Film Diffusion –“Calculated Speculations”
December, 2008Supervisor: Arnulf GrublerProfessor in the Field of Energy and TechnologyStudent: Adrian HorotanMaster of Environmental Management Candidate, 2010, Yale School of Forestry& Environmental Studies, adrian.horotan@yale.edu
 
 
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Table of Contents
Summary................................................................................................................................................3
 
1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................4
 
2. Summary Information on PV Technologies........................................................................................4
 
3. Drivers and Key Factors to consider in understanding solar PV markets............................................5
 
3.1 Cost..............................................................................................................................................5
 
3.2 Attributes......................................................................................................................................6
 
3.3 Supply Issues...............................................................................................................................6
 
4. Estimating the Solar PV Market..........................................................................................................7
 
4.1 Solar PV Market Size and Growth to Date....................................................................................7
 
4.2. The Logistic Curve Tool (adapted from Technology and Global change book, Arnulf Grubler1998)..................................................................................................................................................7
 
4.3 Solar PV Model.............................................................................................................................8
 
4.4 Total Final Solar PV Market Assumptions.....................................................................................9
 
5. Solar Thin Film Substitution...............................................................................................................11
 
5.1. Substitution Drivers.....................................................................................................................11
 
5.2 Investments in Thin Film Driving Cost Reductions.......................................................................11
 
Venture Capital Investments..........................................................................................................11
 
Government and Corporate Investments........................................................................................12
 
5.3 Cost Projections...........................................................................................................................13
 
5.4 Thin Film Substitution..................................................................................................................13
 
6. Conclusion........................................................................................................................................14
 
7. Appendix...........................................................................................................................................15
 
7.1. Company Profile: First Solar (The U.S. Solar Energy Market March 2008 SBI)...........................15
 
7.2. Competitive Profile: Nanosolar (The U.S. Solar Energy Market March 2008 SBI).......................16
 
7.3 VC Firms and Solar Investment (The U.S. Solar Energy Market March 2008 SBI)......................17
 
7.4 VC Investments in Thin Film........................................................................................................18
 
7.5 Selected List of VC Investments in Solar Firms: 2006 and First-Half 2007...................................19
 
7.6 Government and Corporate Investments in Thin Film..................................................................20
 
References............................................................................................................................................22
 
 
 
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Executive Summary
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This working paper was prepared for the Technology, Society and the Environment Seminar at YaleSchool of Forestry and Environmental Studies, in fall 2008.
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The paper aims to provide an overview on the development of solar PV markets in the next 20years, in particular, asking what might be the likely effects of thin-film technologies on incumbentcrystal Silicone technology.
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I expect Solar Thin film technology to substitute incumbent crystal Si technology in terms of worldmarket shipments and propose a scenario for which the time it takes thin film market share to growfrom 1% to 50% is ~20 years with thin film reaching the 50% market share milestone by 2018. Iestimate a total thin film global market size of around $2Bn by 2011 and around $4.5Bn by 2015.
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This rapid substitution will be driven by the cost advantage thin film already enjoys and that will befurther accentuated through continuous investments in thin film from private investors, publicsources and corporations.
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I see thin film as a disruptive technology that will take advantage of the “roll – to – roll printing”manufacturing process to reduce costs significantly and break the $1 / Wp system cost milestonewidely seen by the PV industry insiders as equivalent with parity to fossil fuel sources from a costper KWh perspective.
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Rare metal supply and durability issues could slow thin film adoption. However, longer term,durability is at trade-off with system cost (if system cost is low enough durability may not be anissue) and supply issues will become less relevant when moving to the so called third generation PVmade of polymers.
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I am very optimistic on the total PV market and propose a scenario in which the total final yearlyshipments volume would reach ~350,000 MW / year (from 3,800 MW in 2007) with a high limit of600,000 MW per year and a low limit of 100,000 MW / year. I expect the time it will take the solar PVmarket to reach 50% of this volume to be around 32 years and I expect the solar PV market to passthis 50% milestone by 2040.
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