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PPP Release PA 1020

PPP Release PA 1020

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Published by jmicek
New PPP tracking poll in the PA Governor's Race.
New PPP tracking poll in the PA Governor's Race.

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Published by: jmicek on Oct 21, 2010
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10/21/2010

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Public Policy Polling3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604Phone: 888 621-6988Web: www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail: information@publicpolicypolling.com
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE October 20, 2010INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious mediainquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen)QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312
Onorato closes gap to only two behind Corbett
Raleigh, N.C. –
Just as in the Senate race, where Joe Sestak now leads Pat Toomey byone point after previously being almost written off, Democrat Dan Onorato has pulledundecided voters almost unilaterally toward his side since PPP’s last survey of thegubernatorial race in August, when Republican Tom Corbett led, 48-35. Corbett still has48% of the vote, but Onorato has drastically cut his deficit to two points, trailing at 46%.The enthusiasm gap has narrowed by five points, from an electorate that voted for JohnMcCain by one point to one that favored President Obama by four, six less than his actual2008 victory margin. This all comes from an increase in Democratic voters, who alsomake up five points more of the electorate on the margin than in the last survey.Corbett is still taking advantage of that smaller Republican enthusiasm edge and is alsostill pulling more Democrats than Onorato is Republicans, but by half as much as inAugust. And independents now mirror the overall electorate exactly, when in August,they favored Corbett by an astonishing 52-20—a 30-point improvement for Onorato.It is not that voters have changed their minds about the candidates; both are slightly morepopular than two months ago, and Corbett maintains his popularity edge. But incumbentDemocrat Ed Rendell has seen his job approval figure surge at a much larger rate than theenthusiasm gap has closed; in fact, the difference between his approval and disapprovalmarks has been halved. He is still very unpopular, with only 36% of voters approvingand 54% disapproving, but that is sunnier than his 27-63 grade in August. Typically,voters are voting against the party of the incumbent governor, and a more favorable viewof Rendell can only help Onorato.“Pennsylvania was looking like very depressing territory for Democrats, but now both theGubernatorial and Senate races are up for grabs thanks to stagnated support for theRepublican candidates, undecideds moving the Democrats’ way, and a resurgent interestin this election by Democratic voters,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public PolicyPolling.PPP surveyed 718 likely Pennsylvania voters on October 17
th
and 18
th
. The survey’smargin of error is +/-3.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed andweighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
 
October 17-18, 2010
Survey of 718 likely voters
October 17-18, 2010
Survey of 718 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-69883020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Pennsylvania Survey Results
Q1
The candidates for Governor this fall areRepublican Tom Corbett and Democrat DanOnorato. If the election was today, who wouldyou vote for?48%
Tom Corbett 
....................................................
46%
Dan Onorato 
...................................................
6%
Undecided 
.......................................................
Q2
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Tom Corbett?47%
Favorable 
........................................................
34%
Unfavorable 
....................................................
19%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q3
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Dan Onorato?45%
Favorable 
........................................................
39%
Unfavorable 
....................................................
16%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q4
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor EdRendell’s job performance?36%
Approve 
..........................................................
54%
Disapprove 
......................................................
10%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q5
Who did you vote for President in 2008?45%
John McCain 
...................................................
49%
Barack Obama 
................................................
5%
Someone else/Don't remember 
......................
Q6
Would you describe yourself as a liberal,moderate, or conservative?19%
Liberal 
.............................................................
44%
Moderate 
.........................................................
37%
Conservative 
...................................................
Q7
If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.51%
Woman 
...........................................................
49%
Man 
.................................................................
Q8
If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.48%
Democrat 
........................................................
41%
Republican 
......................................................
11%
Independent/Other 
..........................................
Q9
If you are white, press 1. If African-American,press 2. If other, press 3.87%
White 
..............................................................
9%
African-American 
............................................
4%
Other 
...............................................................
Q10
If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. Ifyou are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,press 3. If older, press 4.7%
18 to 29 
...........................................................
20%
30 to 45 
...........................................................
46%
46 to 65 
...........................................................
27%
Older than 65 
..................................................
 
October 17-18, 2010
survey of 718 likely voters
October 17-18, 2010
survey of 718 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-69883020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
 Base2008 VoteJohnMcCainBarackObamaSomeone else/Don'trememberCorbett/OnoratoTom CorbettDan OnoratoUndecided 48%
84% 16% 40%
46%
11% 79% 31%
6%
5% 5% 29%
 Base2008 VoteJohnMcCainBarackObamaSomeone else/Don'trememberCorbett FavorabilityFavorableUnfavorableNot sure 47%
77% 20% 47%
34%
10% 56% 26%
19%
13% 24% 28%
 Base2008 VoteJohnMcCainBarackObamaSomeone else/Don'trememberOnorato FavorabilityFavorableUnfavorableNot sure 45%
15% 76% 26%
39%
67% 12% 39%
16%
18% 12% 35%
 Base2008 VoteJohnMcCainBarackObamaSomeone else/Don'trememberRendell ApprovalApproveDisapproveNot sure 36%
8% 63% 35%
54%
85% 25% 53%
10%
6% 13% 13%

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