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CHECKING IRAN’S NUCLEAR AMBITIONSEdited byHenry SokolskiPatrick Clawson January 2004
 
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****he views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do notnecessarily reect the ofcial policy or position of the Department of the Army, theDepartment of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for publicrelease; distribution is unlimited.****his book is the result of nearly 2 years of planning and analyses commissionedby the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) to reconsider U.S.efforts to arrest Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. It received support fromseveral organizations including The Smith Richardson Foundation and the U.S.Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. Robert “Robin” Dorff, DouglasLovelace, and Marianne Cowling worked closely with NPEC to assure the book’sproduction. The most important acknowledgement must be made, however, tothe book’s authors and to the project’s co-chairman, Patrick Clawson who helpedguide their research. Finally, a special word of thanks is due to Carly Kinsella,the center’s research coordinator and Albert Wohlstetter Fellow. Only with hertireless help and that of the Strategic Studies Institute, could this volume havemade it into print.****omments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwardedto: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 ForbesAve, Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. Copies of this report may be obtained from thePublications Ofce by calling (717) 245-4133, FAX (717) 245-3820, or by e-mail at
Rita.Rummel@carlisle.army.mil
****All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) monographs are available on the SSIHomepage for electronic dissemination. SSI’s Homepage address is:
http:// www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/ 
****he Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter toupdate the national security community on the research of our analysts, recentand forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by theInstitute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic commentary by one of ourresearch analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please let usknow by e-mail at
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ISBN 1-58487-149-0
 
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CONTENTS
Preface
Patrick Clawson
vIntroduction
Henry Sokolski
ix1.Checking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions: Report Recommendations 
PEC Project on Iran
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.Iran’s “Legal” Paths to the Bomb 
Victor Gilinsky
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233.Iran’s Internal Struggles 
Geneive Abdo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
94.he Prospects for Regime Change in Iran 
. Rob Sobhani
615.inning Iranian Hearts and Minds 
 Abbas William Samii
816.U.S.-Iranian Strategic Cooperation since 1979 
Geoffrey Kemp
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 017.he Challenges of U.S. Preventive Military Action 
 Michael Eisenstadt
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13About the Authors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
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