Memo To Griffin Campaign LeadershipFrom: Wes Anderson & Jon GilmoreDate: October 15, 2010Re: Survey In
Arkansas’s
2nd U.S. Congressional District
METHODOLOGY
The following survey was conducted by OnMessage, Inc. for Tim Griffin for Congress in
Arkansas’s 2nd
U.S. Congressional District. Live interviews were conducted via telephone October 13 and 14 and werestratified by county to reflect historic turnout patterns. This survey was conducted using a sample of 400likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. The party and geographic breakdown of the survey is asfollows: 44% Democrat, 20% Independent and 34% Republican. Geographic: 3% Conway County, 12%Faulkner County, 2% Perry County, 52% Pulaski County, 16% Saline County, 3% Van Buren County, 10%White County and 2% Yell County.
POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
The economy remains the number one issue in the 2
nd
District at 57% and when asked the mostimportant issue in deciding their vote for Congress, 35% said creating jobs.
The voters in Arkansas feel that the country is on the wrong track at 65%.
President Obama is viewed unfavorably by the voters at 57% and favorably by only 40%. With astrong majority of voters claiming the state is headed in the wrong direction and PresidentObama upside down by 17 points,
it’s safe to say the wave is washing over Arkansas’s 2
nd
Congressional district.
Speaker Pelosi’s image
remains toxic with an unfavorable image of 64%. Equally astonishing isthe fact that over half of the electorate (57%) say they are very unfavorable to her.
THE RACE
Tim Griffin continues to gain support and his image stands at 38% favorable to 21% unfavorable.
Senator Elliott
’s image
has now flipped upside down with more voters having an unfavorableopinion than those that have a favorable opinion (37% favorable to 42% unfavorable).
o
Griffin holds a net favorable image in ALL of the counties that make up the 2
nd
District.
o
By comparison, Elliott holds a net unfavorable image in Conway, Faulkner, Saline, VanBuren, White and Yell counties.
The ballot test again shows strong support for the Griffin campaign.
Griffin leads Elliott by 12percentage points (52/40) with 2% other and 6% undecided.
o
Tim leads in every county except for the Democratic stronghold of Pulaski and only trailsElliott by 8% there.
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