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IB Math SL Type II IA Help "China Population Trends"

IB Math SL Type II IA Help "China Population Trends"

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Published by: phantomdancer on Oct 24, 2010
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08/13/2013

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MATH 120The Logistic FunctionElementary FunctionsExamples & ExercisesIn the past weeks, we have considered the use of linear, exponential, powerand polynomial functions as mathematical models in many different contexts.Another type of function, called the
logistic function
, occurs often in describingcertain kinds of growth. These functions, like exponential functions, grow quickly atfirst, but because of restrictions that place limits on the size of the underlyingpopulation, eventually grow more slowly and then level off.
 y
(0)
 y x
As is clear from the graph above, the characteristic S-shape in the graph of alogistic function shows that initial exponential growth is followed by a period inwhich growth slows and then levels off, approaching (but never attaining) amaximum upper limit.Logistic functions are good models of biological population growth in specieswhich have grown so large that they are near to saturating their ecosystems, or of the spread of information within societies. They are also common in marketing,where they chart the sales of new products over time; in a different context, they canalso describe demand curves: the
decline
of demand for a product as a function of increasing price can be modeled by a logistic function, as in the figure below.
 
 y
(0)
 y x
The formula for the logistic function,
 y
=
1
+
 Ae
 Bx
involves three parameters
 A
,
 B
,
. (Compare with the case of a quadratic function
 y
=
ax
2
+
bx
+
c
which also has three parameters.) We will now investigate themeaning of these parameters.First we will assume that the parameters represent positive constants. Asthe input
 x
grows in size, the term
 Bx
that appears in the exponent in thedenominator of the formula becomes a larger and larger negative value. As a result,the term
e
 –Bx
becomes smaller and smaller (since raising any number bigger than 1,like
e
, to a negative power gives a small positive answer). Hence the term
 Ae
 –Bx
also becomes smaller and smaller. Therefore, the entire denominator 1 +
 Ae
 –Bx
isalways a number larger than 1 and decreases to 1 as
 x
gets larger. Finally then, thevalue o
 y
, which equals
divided by this denominator quantity, will always be anumber smaller than
and increasing to
. It follows therefore that the parameter
represents the limiting value of the output
past which the output cannot grow (see the figures above).On the other hand, when the input
 x
is near 0, the exponential term
 Ae
 –Bx
inthe denominator is a value close to
 A
so that the denominator 1 +
 Ae
 –Bx
is a valuenear 1 +
 A
. Again, since
 y
is computed by dividing
by this denominator, the valueof 
 y
will be a quantity much smaller than
. Looking at the graph of the logisticcurve in Figure 1, you see that this analysis explains why
 y
is small near
 x
= 0 and
 
approaches
as
 x
increases.To identify the exact meaning of the parameter
 A
, set
 x
= 0 in the formula; wefind that
 y
(0 )
=
1
+
 Ae
 B
A
0
=
1
+
 A
Clearing the denominator gives the equation (1 +
 A
)
 y
(0) =
. One way to interpretthis last equation is to say that
the limiting value
is 1 +
 A
times larger than the initial output
 y
(0)
An equivalent interpretation is that
 A
is the number of times that the initial population must grow to reach
The parameter
 B
is much harder to interpret exactly. We will be content tosimply mention that
i
 B
is positive, the logistic function will always increase,while if 
 B
is negative, the function will always decrease
(see Exercise 9).Let us illustrate these ideas with an example.
Example 1
. Construct a scatterplot of the following data:
 x
01234567
 y
46101624344658
 x
89101112131415
 y
6979869194979899The scatterplot should clearly indicate the appropriateness of using a logistic modelto fit this data. You will find that using the parameters
 A
= 24,
 B
= 0.5,
= 100produce a model with a very good fit.

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