Types of population pyramid

Population pyramids for 4 stages of the demographic transition model

While all countries' population pyramids differ, four types have been identified by the fertility
and mortality rates of a country.

Stable pyramid - A population pyramid showing an unchanging pattern of fertility and

mortality.

Stationary pyramid - A population pyramid typical of countries with low fertility and low
mortality, also called a constrictive pyramid.

Expansive pyramid - A population pyramid showing a broad base, indicating a high proportion
of children, a rapid rate of population growth, and a low proportion of older people. This wide
base indicates a large number of children. A steady upwards narrowing shows that more people
die at each higher age band. This type of pyramid indicates a population in which there is a high
birth rate, a high death rate and a short life expectancy. This is the typical pattern for less
economically developed countries, due to little access to and incentive to use birth control,
negative environmental factors (for example, lack of clean water) and poor access to health care.

Constrictive pyramid - A population pyramid showing lower numbers or percentages of

younger people. The country will have a greying population which means that people are
generally older.

Young and ageing populations

Generally a population pyramid that displays a population percentage of ages 1–14 over 30% and
ages 75 and above under 6% is considered a "young population" (generally occurring in
developing countries, with a high agricultural workforce). A population pyramid that displays a
population percentage of ages 1–14 under 30% and ages 75 and above over 6% is considered an
"aging population" (that of which generally occurs in developed countries with adequate health
services, e.g. Australia). A country that displays all or none of these characteristics is considered
neither.

Youth bulge
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See also: Baby Boom and List of countries by median age

Median age by country. A youth bulge is evident for Africa, and to a lesser extent for South and
Southeast Asia and Central America.

A world map showing countries by fertility rate, 2005-2010.

     7-8 Children      6-7 Children      5-6 Children      3-4 Children      2-3 Children      1-2 Children
4-5 Children 0-1 Children

The expansive case was described as youth bulge by Gary Fuller (1995). Gunnar Heinsohn
(2003) argues that an excess in especially young adult male population predictably leads to social
unrest, war and terrorism, as the "third and fourth sons" that find no prestigious positions in their
existing societies rationalize their impetus to compete by religion or political ideology. However
this claim is disputed as many historical instances of social unrest related to young adult male
populations are usually caused by a shortage of women for marriage.

Heinsohn claims that most historical periods of social unrest lacking external triggers (such as
rapid climatic changes or other catastrophic changes of the environment) and most genocides can
be readily explained as a result of a built-up youth bulge, including European colonialism, 20th-
century fascism, rise of Communism during the Cold War, and ongoing conflicts such as that in
Darfur and terrorism.[citation needed] Historical economic recessions; such as the Great Depression of
the 1930's, are also claimed to be explained in part due to a large youth population who cannot
find jobs.

One problem with this line of reasoning is that under conditions prevailing before the
introduction of modern medicine, death rates were much higher than they are now, and almost all
societies had youth bulges even when their population growth rate was negligible. However, they
certainly did not experience such youth bulge as prevails today in some parts of the world or as
prevailed in twentieth century Germany or in Africa and the Middle East nowadays.[original research?]

It is not just that most periods of unrest occurred in societies with youth bulges, but that some of
the pre-modern periods of any sort existed in societies with such bulges as well. Nevertheless,
since the improvement of medicine and its introduction, the element of youth bulge has become
far more salient than before. Therefore, perhaps it cannot explain massacres throughout human
history, but it can serve as rather plausible theory to explain the terror, social unrest, and
uprisings in today's society.[original research?]

Another problem is that it ignores the social consequences of poverty, corruption and mass
unemployment among young males in developing countries, where most of the world's current
population growth is occurring. The "youth bulge" is not an accurate predictor of social unrest,
war and terrorism, because they are the product of far more complicated and interrelated set of
factors, of which demographics only plays a part. Yet, even when there are other factors and
circumstance to enable mass unrest, a youth bulge is likely to be one of them.[original research?]

Youth bulge theory represents one of the most recently developed theories of war and social
unrest, and has become highly influential on U.S. foreign policy as two major U.S. proponents of
the theory, U.S. political scientist Jack Goldstone[3] and U.S. political scientist Gary Fuller,[4]
have acted as consultants to the U.S. government.[original research?]

China had an extreme Compare the population

Angola shows the youth bulge until the pyramid of the USA which
Afghanistan shows a
same, even more 1960s, when it sharply was bulging until the
classic youth bulge.
pronounced. curbed partly as an effect 1960s and has steadily
of the one-child policy. slimmed since.

Middle East and North Africa

Further information: Demographic trap

The Middle East and North Africa are currently experiencing a prominent youth bulge. Structural
changes in service provision, especially health care, beginning in the 1960s created the
conditions for a population explosion, which has resulted in a population consisting primarily of
younger people. It is estimated that around 65% of the regional population is under the age of 30.
[5]

The Middle East has invested more in education, including religious education, than most other
regions such that education is available to most young people.[6] However, that education has not
led to higher levels of employment, and youth unemployment is currently at 25%, the highest of
any single region[7]. Of this 25%, over half are first time entrants into the job market.[8]

The youth bulge in the Middle East and North Africa has been favorably compared to that of the
Asian Tigers, which harnessed this human capital and saw huge economic growth in recent
decades.[9] The youth bulge has been referred to by the Middle East Youth Initiative as a
demographic gift, which, if engaged, could fuel regional economic growth and development.

Uses of population pyramids

Main articles: Dependency ratio and Generational accounting

Population pyramids can be used to find the number of economic dependents being supported in
a particular population. Economic dependents are defined as those under 15 (children who are in
full time education and therefore unable to work) and those over 65 (those who have the option
of being retired). In some less developed countries children start work well before the age of 15,
and in some developed countries it is common to not start work until 30 (like in the North
European countries), and people may work beyond the age of 65, or retire early. Therefore, the
definition provides an approximation. In many countries, the government plans the economy in
such a way that the working population can support these dependents. This number can be
further used to calculate the dependency ratio in that population.

Population pyramids can be used to observe the natural increase, birth, and death rate.