Professional Documents
Culture Documents
M
, 7e, Jeff Madura
Copyright ©2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.
|
Chapter Outline
º Loanable funds theory
º Economic forces that affect interest rates
º Forecasting interest rates
a
Loanable Funds Theory
º G
suggests that the
market interest rate is determined by the factors
that affect the supply of and demand for
loanable funds
ÿ Can be used to explain movements in the general
level of interest rates of a particular country
ÿ Can be used to explain why interest rates among debt
securities of a given country vary
è
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
º ousehold demand for loanable funds
ÿ ouseholds demand loanable funds to
finance
º ousing expenditures
º Automobiles
º ousehold items
D
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
º åusiness demand for loanable funds
ÿ åusinesses demand loanable funds to invest in fixed assets and
short-term assets
ÿ åusinesses evaluate projects using net present value (NPV):
M
|
(| )
Î
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
º Ëovernment demand for loanable funds
ÿ Ëovernments demand funds when planned
expenditures are not covered by incoming
revenues
º Municipalities issue municipal bonds
º The federal government issues Treasury securities
and federal agency securities
ÿ Ëovernment demand for loanable funds is
¦
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
º Foreign Demand for loanable funds
ÿ Foreign demand for U.S. funds is influenced
by the interest rate differential between
countries
ÿ The quantity of U.S. loanable funds
demanded by foreign governments or firms is
inversely related to U.S. interest rates
ÿ The foreign demand schedule will shift in
response to economic conditions
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
º Aggregate demand for loanable funds
ÿ The sum of the quantities demanded by the
separate sectors at any given interest rate is
the aggregate demand for loanable funds
ù
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
Dh Db
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
Dg Dm
|
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
Df
Foreign Demand
||
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
DA
Aggregate Demand
|a
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
º Supply of loanable funds
ÿ Funds are provided to financial markets by
º ouseholds (net suppliers of funds)
º Ëovernment units and businesses (net borrowers
of funds)
ÿ Suppliers of loanable funds supply more
funds at higher interest rates
|è
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
º Supply of loanable funds (cont¶d)
ÿ Foreign households, governments, and corporations
supply funds by purchasing Treasury securities
º Foreign households have a high savings rate
ÿ The supply is influenced by monetary policy
implemented by the Federal Reserve System
º The Fed controls the amount of reserves held by depository
institutions
ÿ The supply curve can shift in response to economic
conditions
º ouseholds would save more funds during a strong economy
|D
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
SA
Aggregate Supply
|Î
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
º Equilibrium interest rate - algebraic
ÿ The aggregate demand can be written as
2
2
|¦
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
SA
DA
|
Economic Forces That Affect
Interest Rates
º Economic growth
ÿ Shifts the demand schedule outward (to the
right)
ÿ There is no obvious impact on the supply
schedule
º Supply could increase if income increases as a
result of the expansion
ÿ The combined effect is an increase in the
equilibrium interest rate
|ù
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
SA
i2
i
DA2
DA
|
Economic Forces That Affect
Interest Rates (cont¶d)
º Inflation
ÿ Shifts the supply schedule inward (to the left)
º ouseholds increase consumption now if inflation
is expected to increase
ÿ Shifts the demand schedule outward (to the
right)
º ouseholds and businesses borrow more to
purchase products before prices rise
a
Loanable Funds Theory (cont¶d)
SA2 S
A
i2
i
DA2
DA
a|
Economic Forces That Affect
Interest Rates (cont¶d)
º Fisher effect
ÿ Nominal interest payments compensate
savers for:
º Reduced purchasing power
º A premium for forgoing present consumption
aa
Economic Forces That Affect
Interest Rates (cont¶d)
º Fisher effect (cont¶d)
ÿ Fisher effect equation:
( M ) á
´ ( )
aè
Economic Forces That Affect
Interest Rates (cont¶d)
º Money supply
ÿ If the Fed increases the money supply, the
supply of loanable funds increases
º If inflationary expectations are affected, the
demand for loanable funds may also increase
ÿ If the Fed reduces the money supply, the
supply of loanable funds decreases
ÿ During 200|, the Fed increased the growth of
the money supply several times
aD
Economic Forces That Affect
Interest Rates (cont¶d)
º Money supply (cont¶d)
ÿ September ||
º Firms cut back on expansion plans
º ouseholds cut back on borrowing plans
aÎ
Economic Forces That Affect
Interest Rates (cont¶d)
º åudget deficit
ÿ A high deficit means a high demand for loanable funds by the
government
º Shifts the demand schedule outward (to the right)
º Interest rates increase
ÿ The government may be willing to pay whatever is necessary to
borrow funds, but the private sector may not
º p
ÿ The supply schedule may shift outward if the government
creates more jobs by spending more funds than it collects from
the public
a¦
Economic Forces That Affect
Interest Rates (cont¶d)
º Foreign flows of funds
ÿ The interest rate for a currency is determined by the
demand for and supply of that currency
º Impacted by the economic forces that affect the equilibrium
interest rate in a given country, such as:
ÿ Economic growth
ÿ Inflation
ÿ Shifts in the flows of funds between countries cause
adjustments in the supply of funds available in each
country
a
Economic Forces That Affect
Interest Rates (cont¶d)
º Explaining the variation in interest rates over time
ÿ Late |70s: high interest rates as a result of strong economy and
inflationary expectations
ÿ Early |0s: recession led to a decline in interest rates
ÿ Late |0s: interest rates increased in response to a strong
economy
ÿ Early |0s: interest rates declined as a result of a weak
economy
ÿ |: interest rates increased as economic growth increased
º Drifted lower for next several years despite strong economic growth,
partly due to the U.S. budget surplus
aù
Forecasting Interest Rates
º It is difficult to predict the precise change
in the interest rate due to a particular
event
ÿ åeing able to assess the direction of supply or
demand schedule shifts can help in
understanding why rates changed
a
Forecasting Interest Rates (cont¶d)
w 2
w 2
è
Forecasting Interest Rates (cont¶d)
è|