Professional Documents
Culture Documents
A Thesis Presented By
To
The Harvard University Department of Sociology
In Partial Fulfillment for the Degree of
Bachelor of Arts
With Honors in Sociology and African Studies
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts
24 March 2006
Table of Contents
1 Acknowledgements
2 Abstract
3 Introduction
4 Global Politics and Airline Entrepreneurship
5 The African Airline Industry
6 Theoretical Background
7 Data and Methods
8 Results and Discussion
9 Conclusion
10 Bibliography
11 Appendix
2
Acknowledgements
3
Without the help and guidance of my very knowledgeable and extremely patient and
flexible advisor, Professor Frank Dobbin, I would not have been able to complete this
project. He assisted me every step of the way and always had time to devote to the
endeavor. Equally important to both the development of the initial project and advice and
suggestions along the way was David Ager. His willingness to help out and timely were
I would also like to thank Victoria Kent and the entire Department of Sociology
undergraduate team for their assistance and guidance throughout the project, including
the department’s funding. Terri Oliver in the Department of African and African
American Studies also was helpful over the past year. Lauren Rivera and Mia Bagneris
assisted in editing and directing the nature and direction of the project, as the graduate
Mugane for stimulating my interest in Africa on the first day of my first-year at Harvard.
Finally I would like to thank my friends and family for their continual reassurance and
Specifically I wish to thank my mom and dad for supporting me and allowing me to
attend Harvard, without which I would have never had access to some many excellent
4
Abstract
5
Airlines are extremely vital components of modern society. They serve as the
main method of transportation between countries and regions and contribute to the free
flow of people, goods, and ideas – a necessary condition of the global marketplace. An
analysis of the dynamics underlying the African airline industry through the lens of the
population ecology framework provides excellent insight into how the organizations
interact and respond to global political events such as the end of World War Two, the fall
of the Soviet Union, and the struggle for independence. I collected data over the entire
lifespan of the African airline industry from 1933 to 2005 in relation to the birth and
death patterns of firms during that period. After conducting regression analysis of the
founding and failure of these airlines, I found that the industry follows the same general
dynamics outlined in other ecological models relating to density, age, and rate
dependence. In addition, the results show that birth rates were positively impacted by the
end of World War Two, the end of the Cold War, and the granting of independence;
likelihood of failure was also reduced during these periods, leading to a net increase in
density. These results offer insight into both population ecology and African
populations and put greater emphasis on the effect of political environment. Likewise,
development activists would be wise to spend more time understanding the underlying
dynamics of developing nations’ industries and how they are affected by environmental
changes. Such insight can provide assistance when formulating policies designed to
6
changes. Future research should focus on comparative approaches with other regions and
Introduction
7
When Oroville and Wilbur Wright successfully flew world’s first airplane at Kitty
Hawk in 1903 little did they realize the revolution their inaugural flight would soon
begin. More than a century after their historic flight, our world relies on air travel as a
means of transportation more than ever before. While catastrophic events such as plane
travel, by and large the vast structures and mechanisms that serve as the foundation for
our system of air travel goes largely taken-for-granted and unnoticed. As impressive as
modern aircraft are, equally astounding are the organizations that have been put in place
to operate and coordinate the journeys of these massive, flying vessels. To fully
appreciate these systems it is necessary to better understand the rules and processes that
barriers that once separated nation states dwindle in response to increase in transnational
communication, and airlines serve as a major vehicle for promoting such change.
Passenger air travel has transformed a journey that previously took weeks or months by
boat or train into a trip no longer than a days travel. Consolidation such as this is integral
to the free flow of people and ideas required by modern society and understanding how
such systems operate in underdeveloped regions such as Africa can provide excellent
direction in how to more effectively design structures within these regions so as to more
8
the processes governing the founding and failure rates of firms. Drawing on the
that density, age, and birth and death dependence affect the entry and exit of African
airlines. Additionally, I propose that three political factors – the end of World War Two,
the granting of independence to former colonies, and the end of the Cold War – all
am to explain the historical changes in the airline population in the context of the political
In spite of recent gains in economic production and huge sums of foreign aid,
Africa continues to be the world’s most underdeveloped region. Huge amounts of time
and money have gone into studying the “development crisis” afflicting Africa, but more
research is necessary to understand the structures underlying African society. Rather than
simply pumping more money to fix the problems, we must seek to understand how the
ecology, which has been used to analyze changes in organizations in the West, proves to
population of firms within Africa. Analyzing how African organizations operate, respond
to environmental changes, and ultimately live and die can help to illuminate new more
and other regions of the world. The dynamism of the airline industry and its importance
across the continent towards furthering the flow of people and ideas makes it a prime
candidate for study. My hope is that this project will provide at least some insight into
9
Global Politics and
Airline Entrepreneurship
10
Ecological Perspectives on Political Environment
including age, density, birthrates, and death rates in their studies of the changing nature of
organizational populations, but relatively few have analyzed the specific effects of
political changes on the organizational environment. Some of the major research that has
taken political variables into consideration involves the study of newspapers in a number
of countries. Studies of newspapers in Argentina and Ireland have shown that political
turbulence raises birth rates, and similar studies of newspapers in the United States and
Finland showed that political turbulence also increases failure rates. (Delacroix and
Carroll 1983; Carroll and Huo 1986; Amburgey et al. 1988) Evidence also shows that
newspapers founded during these turbulent times have shorter life spans and a higher risk
resources (Carroll and Delacroix 1982). While these studies definitely provide insight
into the role of political events on organizational populations they are limited to the
national and local scale and do not investigate global changes in politics. Likewise, the
studies limit themselves to only the newspapers within one country and there is no study
of the global newspaper industry. In studying the African airline industry, I have been
that political effects stimulate birth and death rates, I hypothesize that the political effects
in this study increase birth rates and decrease death rates, providing a net overall increase
11
The Role of Political Effects on African Airlines
propose that three political factors affect the birth and death of African airlines: the end of
the World War Two, the end of the Cold War, and the granting of independence to African
nations.
The period after World War Two leads to higher birth rates and lower death rates
of airlines for two main reasons: increased legitimacy of airlines on the whole, and the
roughly at the end of the Second World War and continues to the present.
Hypothesis #1:
Greater legitimacy of the airline industry by international organizations in the post-World War
Two era led to increases in birth rates and decreases in the likelihood of failure.
World Bank and the International Monetary Fund were founded in 1946, and aimed to
airlines, was the establishment of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in
1945 and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in 1944. The IATA is a
12
trade organization made up of airlines from around the world and collects data from its
members on a variety of variables ranging from the number of planes in a fleet, the size
of the workforce, average load factors, and routes traveled. Additionally, the IATA
compiles reports and papers on current issues applicable to its members on such issues as
changes in safety regulations, the impact of world events on air travel, and fuel price
predictions. (IATA 2006) The ICAO, a unit of the United Nations, is the closest thing to
an international air transportation regulatory agency that exists. Major activities of the
ICAO include negotiating air traffic rights between countries, planning future routes, and
of the ICAO is the development of a standardized air traffic control designator and code
system for pilots and air traffic control to communicate; equally valuable was the creation
of a uniform system of four-letter airport codes for travel agencies, airlines, and pilots to
use so that routes and fares can be calculated with a universal set of city identifiers.
(ICAO 2006) Both the IATA and the ICAO have assisted greatly in standardizing the
the legitimacy of the airline industry by increasing public awareness, easing air travel,
and improving the feelings of safety in the air. Additionally, the ICAO has integrated
governments into the airline industries activities through the process of route negotiation
and traffic rights. This linkage between the government and the IATA gave even more
legitimacy to the airline industry as a whole, because government cooperation with IATA
illegitimate they would refuse to negotiate routes, but because they did negotiate routes it
13
governments greatly raises the overall legitimacy of airlines because governments are
considered very high status institutional actors; the recognition by such a high actor raises
the organizations status to a level that makes other institutional actors (i.e. banks, private
investors, consumers, etc) equally willing to give support to airlines. (Baum and Oliver
1991) Steps such as these have resulted in greater public confidence in air travel, leading
to a greater willingness to devote resources in airlines, thus increasing birth rates and
Hypothesis #2:
New advances in aviation technology and their application to an already present infrastructure,
as well as increases in population reduced death rates and increased birth rates after World War
Two.
In addition the development of institutions such as the IATA and ICAO in the
post-World War Two era, technological improvements combined with an already present
infrastructure in place during the “scramble for Africa” facilitated growth. The
infrastructure for air travel had already been established in Africa as the colonial powers
used air travel as a primary means of connecting cities and regions across the continent.
Because of the relative ease in establishing airfields in undeveloped areas, the colonial
powers – most notably Britain and Germany – heavily used airships to connect their
colonial possessions in the 1920s and 1930s. The establishment of terminals, runaways,
training programs, and protocols allowed air travel to continue to grow and thrive in the
post-colonial era. (McCormack 1976) World War Two was the first conflict to rely
14
heavily on airplanes, and the new technology was used extensively in both combat and
transportation of troops and supplies. After the end of the war, significant technological
process had been made in both the aircraft themselves and their related systems. The
turbojet engine and turbofan were the most notable technological innovations during the
war. (Loftin 2004) The jet-engine allowed for much faster travel as well as for longer
flights than previously covered by propeller aircraft. These increases allowed airlines to
improve their efficiency and carry more passengers at a time to cities much further away.
with a war-depressed global economy resulted in considerable growth and expansion into
new markets and routes. When considering the infrastructure that was already in place
from the pre-World War Two imperialist struggles, Africa significantly benefited from
increased air activity as the new technologies were easily integrated. The worldwide
volume of air travel, as measured by passenger air traffic, increased seven fold between
the end of World War Two and 1980, signaling just how much the industry grew.
(Jonsson 1981) These factors led to increased density and births and decreased death rates
Similar to the period after the end of World War Two, the end of the Cold War
also signaled increased birth rates and decreased likelihood of death. Throughout the
period from 1945 to 1989, both the Soviet Union and the United States used Africa – as
they did much of the developing world – as a battleground for the Cold War. Though
geographically distant from both the U.S. and the U.S.S.R., the recently independent
15
nations of post-Colonial Africa presented ideal breeding grounds for the competing
ideological and political systems of the two super-powers. The United States sought to
spread democracy throughout the world and the U.S.S.R. aimed to impose its socialist
model of government to newly developing nations; both countries found takers for their
respective policies in Africa, but they also both cultivated the development of
authoritarian regimes as well. The U.S. and the U.S.S.R. equally exploited the desperate
need of African nations for economic and military support, and in some cases the support
paid off with countries adopting their respective political ideologies. Countries such as
Senegal and Tanzania followed the Soviet Union closely with the adoption of African
socialism. (Thomson 2004) More frequently however, African heads of state had the
ability to garner resources and support from both sides yet remained largely unaligned in
the conflict (Melady 1965). Rather than adopt a strictly socialist or democratic model,
nations such as Zaire leveraged resources from both sides but remained largely
authoritarian under Mobutu. South Africa serves as another prime example of this, as the
U.S. government feared that too much direct intrusion into Pretoria’s affairs would result
in a tip in favor of the Soviets. This led to President Reagan’s hesitation to impose full
sanctions against South Africa during the 1980s despite similar moves by other countries.
(Moss 1995) In general, the Cold War era allowed for authoritarian, totalitarian, and to a
lesser extent socialist regimes to grow in Africa. Socialist and authoritarian regimes
allowed to remain in place during the Cold War contributed significantly to Africa’s
16
Hypothesis #3:
The decline of socialist and authoritarian regimes after the end of the Cold War resulted in
development of greater economic freedom and marketplaces that generated greater resources.
The added resources increased birth rates and decreased the likelihood of disbanding.
With the fall of the Soviet Union came greater political participation and the
greater political and economic freedom and a stronger marketplace. Once the threat of
authoritarian African regimes retracting from the U.S.’s democratic gestures and to a
socialist model was rendered moot at the end of the Cold War, the U.S. was able to take a
more active role in encouraging popular control and the lifting of restrictions placed on
the national markets across the continent. Essentially, the end of the Cold War allowed
for a more aggressive democratization of the continent as there was no need to pander to
dictators once the bargaining chip of Communism fell off the table. The fall of
Communism not only allowed the United States to take a more active role in the
promoting democracy but also allowed for greater agitation by democratic-activist groups
In 1989, only four African countries were rated as democratic regimes, but by 1992, 18
democratic participation and political freedom has made strides, there is still much work
17
wide stability and freedom. That said, the fall of the Soviet Union saw a surge of
recognition for the need of democratic structures and institutions in African societies.
(Moss 1995) Higher degrees of political freedom led to greater economic activity and a
stronger marketplace. Economic growth in turn spurred demand for air travel and
increased the available resources for airlines. Greater resources increase the birth rate
The end of the Cold War also contributed to new movements calling for an
increase in U.S.-Africa trade relations, with advocates pushing for a “new sustainable
development” that would benefit both sides of the Atlantic. (Seidman 1992) The opening
leading to growth in many sectors. Such growth spurred greater need for air travel as
Africa’s economy moves more towards the new global, information-based economy.
Though clearly Africa still has a long way to go, the increased emphasis on ideas and
communication required in the new global marketplace has helped to also increase the
need for air travel, in turn generating more resources for airlines.
Hypothesis #4:
The end of apartheid in South Africa allowed for a return of Western investment and the
recertification of landing rights to and from South Africa, significantly increasing birth rates
The end of apartheid had both direct and indirect effects on the African Airline
Industry. In terms of direct consequences, beginning as early as the 1960s, European and
18
other African nations restricted South Africa Airways from flying over or landing in their
countries. The United States and Australia imposed these types of sanctions in the 1980s.
Additionally, other airlines, including Air Canada, closed their offices in South Africa in
protest of the country’s regime. Following apartheid’s end, South African Airways’
regained its landing rights, re-opening access and tickets sales to previously restricted
markets around the world and by the end of 1991 had actually increased its internal
African flight schedules to 11 African nations and four Indian Ocean Islands.
Furthermore, the end of apartheid allowed other African carriers which had refused to
land in South Africa or allow South African airline firms to fly over their airspace
(notably Egypt and Kenya) regain those privileges as well. Within a few years, almost all
other African nations had returned airspace rights to South African Airways and resumed
normal operations to Johannesburg and Cape Town (Pirie 1992). The end of apartheid
allowed for the removal of these restrictions, reopening many markets to South African
Airways and also reopening routes to South African cities to other African airlines.
Clearly this dramatically increased the level of air traffic and demand for air travel in
Africa, both of which signaled a more lucrative environment for foundings and provided
In addition to the direct effects on the airline industry at the end of apartheid,
contributed to airline growth. In 1977, the United Nations passed an arms trading
embargo on South Africa and larger scale efforts to sanction the country economically
began gaining significant momentum. While the United States and the United Kingdom
never opposed official sanctions on South Africa, many companies in North America and
19
Europe did voluntarily stop or reduce their investment in South Africa’s economy
(Wheeler 1974). At the end of apartheid, a majority of the countries returned their
investment and UN sanctions were lifted. Not only was more money directly available
for African airlines, but the return of investment in other areas of society that require air
travel stimulated growth in the airline industry and allowed for expansion of new routes
and greater demand for passenger traffic. Perhaps the largest industry impacted by the
end of sanctions and boycotts was the South African tourism industry which rebounded
traffic.
Colonial Independence
I also project greater African independence to increase birth rates and decrease
likelihood of failure. As nations in Africa gained their independence, leaders were faced
with a number of challenges, most notably trying to unify a country made up of many
disparate and distinct ethnic, cultural, and religious groups. Additionally, a mentality of
Hypothesis #5:
Independent African nations divert resources to maintain their national airlines because they see
them as a demonstration of their newly obtained national sovereignty and as a method for
independent African nations is associated with an increased rate of births and a decreased rate
of failure.
20
Newly minted nations wish to increase their status and view the creation of
national flag carrying airlines as an easy and immediate method of increasing their status.
Often they lack the requisite technical and financial resources to responsibly create
airlines, but for the sake of national pride and status-development they allocate their
Contributing to this were the declarations regarding the sovereignty of any country over
its national airspace made at the Chicago Convention on Air Transportation in 1944 in
that new countries seek to demonstrate their recently achieved sovereignty by having an
airline that bears their country’s name land in other cities. (Cumming 1962) Heymann
discusses how after its independence in 1958, Ghana almost immediately began to setup
intra-Africa and transatlantic and trans-Indian ocean routes to places as far away as
Japan; they often did this without sufficient planes, and when they did eventually acquire
planes, they lacked the funds to pay for them in their treasury. Ghana wished to increase
its status by becoming the main airline that connected Africa with the rest of the world
and other carriers mimicked this ambition. The desire of nations to use airlines as a
means of increasing their international legitimacy and state pride contributed to the birth
of airlines as states were eager to have as many airlines as possible. Additionally, the
commitment of governments to maintaining airlines for the sake of national pride and
political legitimacy even when they were unprofitable resulted in the nationalization and
likelihood of failure.
21
Hypothesis #6:
The division of colonial regions into smaller, sovereign states resulted in higher birth rates
controlled by one colonial power and in turn served by one airline, were split up into
smaller, autonomous nations, each with its own airline. Two major examples of this
come to mind: West African Airways Corporation (WAAC) and East African Airways
Corporation (EAAC). (Cumming 1962) WAAC originally served Nigeria, the Gold
Coast (Ghana), Sierra Leone, and Gambia, but soon only began to serve Nigeria as other
countries developed their own airlines upon gaining independence. Thus, WAAC
remained, but Ghana Airways, Sierra Leone Airways, and Gambia Air Shuttle were all
created also. On the opposite side of the continent, EAAC encountered a slightly
different fate as it disbanded and Kenya Airways, Air Tanzania, and Uganda Air were
22
The African Airline Industry
23
The second-largest continent in the world both by land mass – 11.7 million square
miles – and population – 843 million persons as of 2002 – Africa is a land of much
diversity. Economically the continent ranges from the poorest in the world, such as the
$500 USD GDP per capita of Sierra Leone, to that equal with many Western societies, the
top of which is South Africa with a GDP per capita of $10,000 USD (United Nations).
An example of this is further seen in that two-thirds of the entire continents’ GDP is
accounted for by five of the fifty four countries in Africa, with South Africa and Nigeria
being the only sub-Saharan countries included within that group. The diversity also
Africa is equally diverse, emphasized most perhaps by the more than 2000 unique
languages, plus countless dialects, spoken across the continent. To some extent, the
a continent-wide basis would seem fool-hardy at best. How then is a statistical analysis
Despite the great diversity within Africa on the surface, as the world’s most
focusing one’s scope to a specific industry is highly feasible and appropriate. One of the
major linkages among African nations lies in the low population density present in most
nations. Of the 198 nations and dependencies measured for population density in 2004
by the CIA, Namibia ranked 192nd with two people per square kilometer as the lowest
ranked African country. At the high end, the island nation of Mauritius topped out 11th
with 603 persons per square kilometer; in terms of the highest mainland country, Rwanda
24
came in 21st with 320 people per square kilometer. In general, African nations are well
towards the lower end of the scale, and according to the UN, in 1995 Africa had an
average of 243 people per 1000 hectares in 1995, roughly one half of the world’s average.
The low population density of Africa means two things for air travel within the continent.
First, it shows the need for flights that connect remotes parts of the continent and of
individual country’s with each other. This implies the need to grow services such as
commuter flights and intra-continent airlines that provide air connections between major
urban and commercial hubs and remote villages and areas. Clearly, there is no
expectation to connect every village in Africa with a major city using air travel, as this is
both infeasible in terms of structural demands and engineering constraints, but greater
connection with distant regions is desirable. The second implication of the low density is
that carriers will likely face low passenger load factors on external flights for lack of
making it the least urbanized continent on Earth. Though there are obviously heavily
concentrated cities such as Lagos, Nairobi, Cairo, and Johannesburg across the continent,
in general Africa’s population is predominantly rural and is assumed to stay that way until
at least 2025 according to the UN. In general, the low population density and
urbanization in Africa increase the need for internal air service to connect more remote
communities with large urban centers, but at the same time limit the passenger load
factors on any international flights for lack of demand and feeder capabilities.
Connecting these portions of the country are important for social, economic, and political
other means can take advantage of these resources by utilizing air travel to reach them.
25
For example, the development of air travel in Ethiopia allowed for the harvesting and
transport of a remote coffee-growing crop that was then exported to Europe for high
value. Without air travel it would have been nearly impossible to transport workers and
necessary machinery to the remote villages where these crops grew (Heymann 1962).
Socially, air links provide a remedy for the isolation of some communities that are far
away from vital resources such as healthcare or reliable food supplies. Politically, air
travel helps to unify a country and create political stability by ensuring that the central
government has direct and immediate reach over far away regions that may be
geographically isolated. These factors are common to countries across Africa and in turn
affect the airlines operating within those countries by confronting them with similar
In addition to the low population density, the low GDP per capita and economic
purchasing power of most Africans makes air travel a very, very expensive luxury that is
foreign to most of the population. Considering that the price of an air ticket approaches if
not exceeds the entire annual income of the average citizen in most African nations, it is
easy to see why air travel is well out of reach of the masses. This financial incapacitation
leads to a vast under utilization of air travel in Africa. To give a view of the extent of this
underutilization and lack of demand, despite having a population relatively equal to that
kilometers that an airline carried passengers for in a given year) in 1985 of the top fifteen
African airlines combined, was less than each of the top seven members of the IATA. To
give a more complete view, consider that the sum total of the top fifteen African airlines
was less than that of either United or American Airlines in the United States and is
26
roughly equivalent to that of Air France. Fleet size also emphasizes the small size of
African airlines, as the total fleet size for the top 15 African airlines in 1985 topped out at
279, compared with American Airlines which had an individual total of 270 planes. It
should also be noted that planes used by African airlines tend to be older and smaller than
those used by their Western counterparts. This under utilization and lack of demand for
air travel in Africa is common throughout the continent and serves as a unifying
environmental factor for the analysis of the population of African air carriers. (Taneja
1989)
regulation, African governments take a hard line stance against free market competition
and in favor of heavily regulated fares and subsidization if not outright ownership of
firms. Governments take an active hand in airlines because they realize the need for such
a service and understand that due to the presence of generally only one major carrier per
country, if that firm were to go bankrupt the country would lose virtually all air service.
Due to this, they actively assist airlines through both direct financial means and by setting
ticket prices both domestically and internationally (the latter of which is done in
airlines provide many benefits for their nations, outside of the purely financial
performance of the airline itself, and the institutions of these airlines must be preserved to
ensure further development in their respective nations. Some benefits of an airline to the
nation-state include the flow of people for business and tourism and the transportation of
goods for international export and trade. All African airlines face tight government
control and regulation on many items including types of planes, routes flown, and of
27
course ticket prices (Taneja 1989). Though these regulations may differ slightly
faced by African airlines relates to the instability in the political structure of the
continent. Though the relative political stability of the African continent continues to
increase in recent years as institutions are setup in these societies, in general there is a
great deal of uncertainty in the environment and firms must deal with the potential for
vast political changes and regime shifts in their own base country or in neighboring ones,
that may dramatically affect their business model. Events such as apartheid in South
Africa, genocide in Rwanda and Sudan, violence in the Congo and the like all clearly
impact commercial organizations such as airlines and are frequent throughout the modern
Tied largely to this point is the shared political history of almost every African
Africa and so I will touch on this just briefly. African nations share a legacy colonialism
that generally ended in and around the 1960s by which time many of them had received
their independence. Though there were some airlines present before the end of
new countries began to create their own airlines or expand the scope of previously stifled
commercial passenger airline industries. In either case, colonialism had and continues to
28
Theoretical Background
29
This section provides a brief background on the study of organizations including
as an “iron cage” of order and rationality and his conception of such a structure
exemplifies the nature of the organization in the modern society. In discussing the
highest degree of efficiency, and is in this sense formally the most rational known
means of exercising authority over human beings. It is superior to any other form
thus makes possible a particularly high degree of calculability of results for the
heads of the organization and for those acting in relation to it. It is finally
superior both in intensive efficiency and in the scope of its operations and is
1958)
30
Weber’s discussion of the bureaucratic structure and its efficiency and precision is
supplemented by his notion that the bureaucratic apparatus has made man only one piece
of a larger structure, designed for a common goal. Man still maintains his separate
identity and ideas, but these are counterbalanced by the larger and more overarching goal
of the organization.
“"No machinery in the world functions so precisely as this apparatus of men and,
in this bureaucratic machine and, seeing himself in this light, he will merely ask
Ultimately, Weber views the bureaucracy as an “iron cage,” trapping individuals in a set
of rules and regulations. The continuous desire of the bureaucracy to be more and more
rational and efficient removes the human agency, as individuals fall prey to the plethora
Another important factor in Weber’s work lies in focus on the social, political, and
historical factors when analyzing social phenomena. Weber stressed the need to examine
more than just one dimension on any event. Specifically, in discussing economic events,
he stresses the need to evaluate those activities that are “economically conditioned” and
“economically relevant,” citing the importance of the latter because “they have
consequences which are of interest from the economic point of view” (Weber, et al.1958).
From this we can discern Weber’s emphasis on looking beyond any one specific factor,
and instead understanding social and historical events as being affected by economics,
31
culture, and politics. Weber’s emphasis be applied to understanding how state
independence and the post-World War Two and post-Cold War eras have affected the
growth of airlines.
change through organizational evolution and adaptation. Though there are many
variations and spin-offs of this brand of organizational theory, the common thread linking
the approaches together lies in the importance of internal firm dynamics and strategy in
individual actors within these organizations will recognize these changes, devise
solutions to meet them, have the resources and power to be able to do so, and eventually
carry out the necessary alterations. There is agreement among all adaptation scholars that
larger and older organizations are the way they are because they have been better able to
adapt to the environment and accordingly, they have more effective mechanisms to deal
with environmental change. Such theoretical works put a great focus on the power of
agency of the individual and tend to dismiss larger structural constraints as well as issues
of what if the individuals are unable to muster the resources to bring about such change.
(Hannan and Freeman 1989) Below is a brief examination of some of the leading
the specific environmental factors of any organization and finding the most effective
32
structure for all of those contingencies. The contingency theorists argue against any one
type of specific organizational structure as a cure-all universally, and instead they push
for looking at the particulars of each firm, both internal and externally. They argue that
the structure that works best for a small organization with only a few dozen employees
operating in a highly segmented industry may work terribly for a large, multi-national
organization with a large market share. Contingency theory heavily stresses size and
technology as important factors in determining the most effective structure for a given
organization.
resource dependency approach (1978). This theory focuses on the role that external
actors play in giving resources to organizations, and states that organizations will react
differently to different environmental actors relative to the degree which they provide
resources necessary for the organization to function. Likewise, all organizations will
impossible to fully be independent. Resource allocation clearly impacts airlines and most
often comes in the form of revenue from passenger sales and financial investment from
structure occurs from within. More specifically, as organizations are faced with these
outward challenges, it is the actors within the organization that make decisions (all while
jockeying within their own internal power structures) on how to adjust the resource
33
A final major framework on organizational evolution involves neo-institutional
theory, which focuses on the role that society-wide social norms and conceptualizations
of what is considered a “legitimate” organization play and how they are diffused within
the organizational environment (Meyer and Rowan 1977; Powell and DiMaggio 1991) In
turn, organizations respond and emulate these norms in order to be seen as legitimate
actors within the social context and as eligible receivers of resources. Though similar in
puts less emphasis on the internal processes of grappling for power and control in order
to be able to allocate the resources that Pfeffer and Salacinik discuss, and more on the
interaction between and among peer organizations while taking into consideration a
gained their legitimacy through the development of the IATA and ICAO and their
interaction with the governments. In addition, as more and more airlines joined the
industry, the organizational form was viewed as more legitimate and received more
resources. In this way, greater density does not necessarily lead to more competition but
also greater chances of survival as the industry on a whole has more resources from
greater legitimacy. The neo-institutional theorists also demonstrate how smaller, newer
organizations will imitate and copy the processes of larger, older, and more successful
34
networks and trade organizations facilitate the development and diffusion of norms
within an organizational population and among society in general. This point underscores
the significance of the IATA, ICAO, and governments in helping to establish the
between organizations rather than within the organizations themselves. While ecologists
do agree that humans have a certain amount of agency to change organizations from the
inside out, ecologists generally assume a large degree of structural inertia in organizations
and do not expect significant changes in the nature or structure of any single firm over its
lifespan. Instead, they examine diversity at the population level and explain the variance
within a population as a result of constant changes in the population itself as firms with
different structures and processes constantly enter and exit the market; within a market,
greater entries suggest more diversity as new forms are introduced and greater exits
imply less diversity as unsuccessful forms are weeded out. Ecologists view populations
of organizations as those firms sharing a similar environment and explain the entry and
exit of members as a result of the underlying social, economic, and political processes at
work. As environmental conditions shift, the processes relating to founding and failure
With the understanding of these foundations and that population ecology views
35
organizational actors – I move to examine the factors that ecologists view as governing
Density Dependence
Ecologists assume that carrying capacities – the total number of organizations that
a given environment can maintain – to change slowly because the structural constraints
on any social system limit the number of organizations of a certain form. Assuming that
carrying capacities are relatively fixed and change little in the short term, the size of the
organizational dynamics. In turn, ecologists view founding and failure rates as density
dependent; they change with changes in the population size. But, before proceeding into
the nature of these changes, I must first clarify the meaning of density.
firms in the environment. I undertake a similar approach and measure the density of
African airlines as the total number of firms rather than by fleet size, total employees, or
economic production. My justification for using the total number of firms as opposed to
another measure is two-pronged. First, the practical constraint of data collection limits
the other available measures of densities to a more limited time span, leaving out a
passenger kilometers performed do not provide adequate insight into population level
dynamics and provide only a general snapshot of the industry as a whole. Accordingly, in
36
the footsteps of previous ecologists, I use the total number of firms as the measure of
Moving forward with the understanding of density as the number of firms, let us
evaluate how density impacts the birth and death rates of organizations. Initially,
ecologists view density as having a positive effect on birth rates, with higher densities
resulting in a higher number of births, but as density reaches very high levels (the
carrying capacity) density is predicted to have a negative effect. This split effect of
density renders the overall effect as non-monotonic. The justification for why density
initially results in initial growth centers on two main pieces: the expansion of requisite
knowledge for firm creation through networks that expand with higher density and
reserved for those who are within the established organizational networks; these
organizations that are largely absent from the mainstream public eye in industries where
there is little outside scrutiny or insight, the relevant knowledge regarding structure,
organizations without a large public profile, even in fields that do garner public attention,
it would be difficult to be a total outside and come from an entirely different field and be
able to successfully found an organization without first having at least some type of
experience or knowledge about how the industry works and how best to strategically
structure and position one’s self to effectively compete for resources. In the frame of the
37
variations discussed previously, even though different organizations will adopt different
variations and will fare on how effectively their respective variations position that
organization to acquire resources, all of these variations are at least considered feasible
and reasonable methods of approach; that is, these variations were developed not out of
the blue, but after having knowledge of the field and looking at other organizations’
efforts at acquiring resources. Thus, it can be understood that “insider information” into
the processes and dynamics (whether they be economic, social, political, institutional, or
the like) at play within a given industry are essential to creating an organization.
The role of insider information now understood, how then does this relate to
gaining insider information lies in exploiting the organizational networks at place within
an industry. The best position to be in to exploit the knowledge and information of these
networks is to have a job within an organization in the network, and thus the greater
number of jobs in an industry leads to a larger number of individuals with the requisite
skills to build and maintain organizations (Brittain and Freeman 1980). A grater number
of firms in an industry can be seen to increase the number of jobs in an industry, which in
builders.” Likewise, more firms within a given organizational field strengthen the
networks at play and allows for the easier and more diffused flow of information within
A second reason for the density-birth rate link relates to the growth of institutional
support and legitimacy for firms is low. This lack of institutional support and necessity to
38
fight for legitimacy makes the acquisition of resources more difficult as they must justify
their presence and usefulness in the environment. This difficulty in acquiring resources
and lack of social legitimacy creates more obstacles and barriers to achieving success and
accordingly the entrepreneurial attitude needed to create more firms is absent and leads to
less foundings. An example of this dynamic at work can be seen in the young
commercial spaceflight industry which at the present time has only a few companies in it
as a result of the large cost to get involved, the lack of a profit at the present time, and the
skepticism from the public at success. As the industry grows, the government may
provide incentives for organizations to start in this field or profitability of firm currently
operating may spur new growth. Likewise, once commercial space flights are launched
and the public sees that product actually in place and that it can be done safely, the
industry’s customer base will grow. On the opposite side of the spectrum, large industries
with many firms have much greater institutional support and social legitimacy, and would
see higher birth rates because of this. Such legitimacy is especially evident in taken-for-
granted industries where the organizational form is considered a normal and natural part
of society. For such organizations, there is often a great deal of support from government
agencies and a large customer base to draw profits. A fine example of such an industry
would be the modern day fast-food restaurant, which sees a great deal of foundings each
year as it is very popular among the mass population and makes tremendous profits.
Many organizations are founded each year in this industry as they believe they can
contribute to initial increase in density, as density grows too large and the number of
39
firms reaches the carrying capacity, intense competition leads to a scarcity of resources
and a decline in birth rates. Carrying capacity constitutes a range of population size that
a given industry, above which point growth is negative. . In industries where there are
restrictions (whether natural or artificial) that limit the number of firms or the potential
number of customers, firms are less likely to be founded in industries that are close to or
at these capacities. The reasoning behind this lies with the principle that as an industry
reaches its carrying capacity – that is the maximum number of firms that it can hold –
then organizations will start to fail at much higher rates as there is less of or none of the
pie available. Looking towards the cell phone industry in North America and Europe this
dynamic illustrates itself nicely. Because there is a finite population of people in each of
these regions and since it is reasonable to assume that each individual will only need one
cell phone, eventually the market for new cell phones will become very small.
Accordingly, there will be very few new customers to compete for and companies will
begin to suffer from lack of new sales. Investors and entrepreneurs would likely feel
more trepidation to investing in such a market as the likelihood for failure is higher.
From this example we can see how while greater density does support a higher birthrate
initially, at some point there will be a decline as resources become too scarce to justify
new births.
Mirroring the density processes that govern birth rates, selections theorists
theoretical model proposed originally by Hannan and Freeman and later tested and
disbanding at different density levels. They conclude that failures will occur when
40
density is low because of the lack of legitimating the organizational form faces from the
prevailing environment. If there are low numbers of airlines then the resources that the
firms need to survive will be less accessible as the organizational form of the airline itself
struggles to gain legitimacy and solidify instutionalized support for its form. For the
airline industry, physical facilities such as commercial airports or landing strips as well as
financial structures such as governments or investment firms often are reluctant in their
desire to assist an industry that has only a few members. As the population of firms
grows key institutional actors are more apt to support the industry as a whole and the
networks and mechanisms for acquiring resources, as well as the allocation of the
resources themselves are solidified as a result of greater legitimacy for the organizational
form. At lower densities, with less institutional support organizations have a greater
likelihood of failure as they cannot acquire the necessary resources; at higher densities,
once the industry or form has gained legitimacy, firms are less likely to fail due to lack of
available resources.
institutional legitimacy and support, higher densities come with problems of their own.
increases and firms are fighting off more competitors for a limited set of resources.
Hannan and Freeman point to increases in both direct competition between individual
firms and diffused competition among the population in general, as density rises. Direct
competition rises within the airline industry occur as individual airlines directly compete
with a competitor in specific markets. For example, as more airlines were founded in
South Africa, the market between Johannesburg to Cape Town went from two carriers
41
(South African Airways and Commercial Air) to more than a dozen. While there may be
some increase in overall demand for seats on that route due to population increases and a
general rise in air travel, in all likelihood there was not such a rise to the degree of
increase that occurred. This is a prime example of the increase in diffused competition
that occurs with increased density, just as the entrance of East African Safari Airways
Limited into Precision Air Services market between Nairobi, Kenya and Arusha, Tanzania
for ferrying safari vacationers back and forth was an example of increased density
initial increase in density reduce failure rates, once density reaches a specific point (the
carrying capacity that was discussed earlier) higher density leads to increase disbanding
rates as competition becomes to intense and resources become scarce. In considering the
describing failure rates as they relate to density mirrors the same non-monotonic curve
environment for airline founding as resources are seen ample enough to support new
growth. Examples of this in the airline industry focus on the expansion of routes to new
markets that were previously not served or under-capacity. Potential entrepreneurs are
persuaded to found firms when times are good in order to take advantage of potential
profits. As the number of births increases to very large numbers however, potential
42
entrepreneurs may be dissuaded from founding firms in response to the potential of
resource exhaustion. Investors believe that the large number of airline foundings over
recent years in a specific market may soon spell overcapacity in that market and thus be
hesitant that their company will be able to acquire the necessary resources to survive in
the long-term. In general, smaller waves of foundings are seen to positively impact birth
rates, but extremely large numbers of births are depress birth rates, or at the very least not
Complementing the waves of births, ecologists also theorize that waves of failures
affect populations in a similar manner. Though a few failures may not have any effect on
the population as a whole, the failure of many organizations in the previous year signals
that the environment is inhospitable and generates a lack of confidence in the airline
form-wide failure as the resources and facilities vacated by the now defunct firm are
available to its former competitors and may allow that firm to survive. Disbanded
airlines often leave behind flying rights between specific cities, empty terminals and
planes, or out of work employees, all of which can be used by airlines that are still
operating and may be able to prevent these firms from dying or by new firms that enter
the market. But, as the number of disbandings reaches very high levels, it acts as a signal
that times for airlines are bad and that there are not sufficient resources to sustain all the
firms in the environment. Also plausible is that the current organizational form is
airlines and reduce their levels of support, which further reduces available resources and
43
increases death rates. Many firm failures in a given year suggest that the airline industry
may be weak due to overcapacity, lack of demand, or other reasons, in turn decreasing
institutional support and making firm failure more likely in subsequent years.
Age Dependence
individual firms. Research has shown that younger firms face a “liability of newness” as
they struggle for legitimacy in the environment and face greater threat of mortality until
they establish themselves (Hannan and Freeman 1988). Even in established industries or
organizational forms, younger organizations face a much fiercer battle for resources until
they can ritualize their methods of resource acquisition. Contrastingly, while older
organizations do face a certain liability of becoming outdated and becoming obsolete for
their environment, they do not face the battle for resources that younger organizations
face as they have established and ritualized methods of acquiring the necessary resources.
foundational role in the environment and should their mortality be in danger, institutional
actors within the environment may act to protect older organizations in fear of large scale
is if the so-called “legacy” airlines in the United States were to fail; the government has
provided loans and assumed pensions to prevent these legacy carriers from liquidating
because such failure would lead to a catastrophic impact on the U.S. by both reducing
domestic traffic and cutting off the country from international routes to Europe and Asia.
Similar effects occur in African nations as many countries have only one or two carriers
44
that provide air service between that country and the outside world; the end of such
routes would dramatically affect these nations economically, politically and socially.
With any airline, international routes, specifically those to Europe and North America are
governed by a complex set of negotiated treaties between nations that grant individual
carriers permission to fly these routes. Because most of these treaties were negotiated in
the 1960s, 70s, and 80s, many younger carriers do not have permission to fly
international routes as they are reserved for the older carriers. And, because an end or
country, the airlines who fly those routes (who are older in firm age by design) would
receive more institutional support should they appear likely to fail; this reduces their
where almost all national flag carriers were established decades ago and are state-run,
45
Data and Methods
carrying out the analysis of the African airlines. Specifically I discuss collection of the
46
data, formatting of the variables, and the processes of regression. Additionally, particular
attention is paid to the difficulty in acquiring data from under-developed nations which
lack standardized and routine mechanisms for collecting reliable annual data.
one of the most fundamental issues with any population-level study – the definition of the
population itself. The researcher faces a precarious position in defining the population.
On one hand, he does not want to define the parameters of the population so narrowly as
to limit the number of cases and exclude potentially valuable data in the overall
processes occurring within a given population. Oppositely, the researcher does not want
different in both structure and environmental. Defining the field too broadly and
including too many (different) types of organizations also runs the risk of making data
collection difficult. In discussing population definition, Hannan and Freeman offer the
following insight:
“A population of organizations has a unitary character in this sense if its members are
47
Deferring to Hannan and Freeman, operating environment is essential to correctly
First, it is necessary to define the operating unit, in this case the passenger airline.
All of the data on African airlines and those airlines of other continents refers to primarily
passenger based firms and excludes those who do solely cargo or shipping based
business. The selection of firms for this analysis was limited to those companies that had
at least 10 percent of their scheduled services in passenger traffic each year. This does
not serve as an especially constricting criterion, as the vast majority of African airlines
deal in both passengers and commercial cargo transport. Additionally, I incorporate both
scheduled (i.e. regular commercial) and non-scheduled (i.e. charter) airlines. While some
may consider these two types of firms to be substantively different, within the still
developing African airline industry, charter firms serve both leisure and commercial
needs – the same as scheduled carriers. Additionally, charter and scheduled airlines
operate under the same general restrictions (i.e. safety and maintenance standards and
flight routes) and face similar hurdles (i.e. under-demand and high prices for fuel). The
lack of substantive and regulatory difference faced by charter and scheduled carriers
historical events on the continent proves an even greater challenge. While reliable and
48
easily accessible data on airline firm founding and death is easily available in Western
countries, it is much more difficult to obtain on Africa. Two major problems emerge in
the collection of data: 1) lack of reliable recorded data, and 2) inaccessibility of the data.
African nations and governments are becoming increasingly efficient at recording figures
ranging form citizen education-level to financial acquisition between firms, however such
efforts are relatively recent in much of the continent and outside of South Africa and
some West African nations, very little recorded official data pertinent to airlines exists
before the 1950s. Even if such data does exist it is often not available online or in hard
text format in the United States or Europe and may exist only in a small room in an
obscure department in the country itself. Because such detailed data collection far
exceeds the bounds and resources afforded to this thesis project, I have had to rely on the
The primary resource used to compile the original list of airlines in Africa was the
IATA’s annual World Air Transport Statistics (WATS) that has been published and
compiled annually since 1956. These data books contain a wealth of information ranging
on both the aggregate and individual airline level for all of the IATA’s member airlines.
All of largest airlines in Africa by passenger traffic are members of the IATA but virtually
none of the smaller airlines are. Additionally, though IATA keeps reliable data on the
associate member, or has relinquished membership), there are many occasions when an
airline will give up membership in IATA but still remain in operation. Likewise, some
airlines do not gain entrance into the IATA until meeting certain minimal standards,
which may not occur until several years (or even decades) after their original founding.
49
Thus, while WATS provides an excellent starting point for data collection in the industry,
the annual membership list must be corroborated with other data sources in order to
develop a fully comprehensive picture of firm foundings and failures, because they do not
To supplement the IATA data and determine the actual lifespan of specific firms a
number of other sources were used. First and most frequently, data was gathered by
searching LexisNexis Media search engine for firm names to find the pertinent dates and
years of company foundings, failures, mergers, acquisitions, and so on. A great deal of
data was uncovered and clarified using LexisNexis and other media related search
engines, however the problem with this method is that in order to search for a given firm
it is necessary to have the name of the firm itself, and even with the IATA data many
firms were still excluded. To rectify this exclusion a number of independently run, third-
party websites were utilized to gain the names and in some cases general date ranges of
airlines. Websites such as AirTimes, Wikipedia, Airline History, and Air-Dir may seem
dubious as academic resources at first glance, but in an industry that lacks accessible and
well-documented records such as the African airline industry, they are often the only
source for a researcher to begin. Furthermore, data was acquired from such sources only
when it could be verified with additional sources such as the company’s website, WATS,
media outlets, or independent reports. As is now obvious, unlike the study of other
responsible regulatory body or trade organization that regulates this industry, makes it
50
As for the quality of the data set, as the primary investigator I am quite confident
in its reliability and can testify to its validity for the uses in this project. It took hundreds
of hours to compile, and data was constantly checked and double-checked to ensure the
greatest degree of accuracy possible. That said, as with any empirical study some things
were missed and it would be a lie to say that the data reflects the industry at any given
point with 100 percent accuracy. While the data was compiled with the greatest available
resources, clearly a researcher with greater time and money could compile a more
comprehensive and inclusive data set by traveling to each of the African nations and
For the requirements and limitations – in both resources and time – this data set provides
a fair and reasonable picture of the industry and goes well beyond satisfying the
minimum acceptable standards for data. In short, the vast majority of airlines with some
trace in public records or private databases are included in the data set and the subsequent
Variables
Below is a list of the variables included in the analysis. All variables were standardized
and formatted as specified. For the sake of formatting and visual appearance, all tables
and graphs related to the data are included in the Appendix. Full data files used the
individual firms. While clearly a more precise date measure would be ideal, the limits
51
imposed on data collection as described above do not make it feasible at the current time.
Density in the Previous Year. Density is measured as of January 1 of the year prior to the
given year in total number of individual firms. Minimum value is 0, maximum value is
156.
Number of Births. This variable measures the number of births between January 1 and
Number of Births in the Previous Year. This variable measures the number of births
between January 1 and December 31 of the year prior to the given year. Data is measured
Number of Deaths. This variable measures the number of deaths between January 1 and
Number of Births in the Previous Year. This variable measures the number of deaths
between January 1 and December 31 of the year prior to the given year. Data is measured
52
Proportion of Independent African Nations. The variable noting proportion of
independent African nations out of a total of 54 as of January 1 of the given year. Data
was obtained from Encyclopedia Britannica online and though precise date data is
available, for the sake of continuity it is measured at the annual level. Minimum value is
Population of Africa. The population variable was obtained from the United Nations
Annual Yearbook as well as the population estimates projected by the United Nations
from 1950. Because the time period also extends to 1933, it was necessary to interpolate
the population on a linear model from 1930 to 1950. The population estimate for 1930 of
2.07 billion in that year and an estimated population percentage of 9.6% of the world’s
population in Africa. The 9.6% rate is based on the United Nations estimates which have
8.1% of the population of the world in Africa as of 1900 and 12.9% of the population in
2000, and assume steady growth in population throughout the period. Though not an
exact measure of population it does provide one in line with other models and is the best
approach possible considering no official numbers are available from a census at that
time. Population from 1950 onwards is very reliable as it was obtained from the United
53
Post-World War Two Period. This variable measures the period after World War Two and
begins in 1947 until 2005. Data is coded as one (1) for the years from 1947 onwards and
Post-Cold War Period. This variable measures the post-Cold War period from 1990-
2005, as signaled by the fall of the Berlin Wall. Data is coded as one (1) for the years
from 1990 onwards and as zero (0) for the years 1933-1989.
Time Trend. This variable serves as a control in the birth analysis and ranges from 1-73.
Industry Age. This variable is very similar to time trend but measures the age of the
industry as of January 1 of the given year. Minimum value is 0, maximum value is 72.
Firm Age. This variable measures the age of the firm as of January 1 on the given year
and is coded as a whole, real number. Minimum value is 0, maximum value is 72.
Disbanding. Used only in the failures analysis this variable is coded as zero (0) if the
event did not happen and as one (1) if the event did happen. Dates of disbanding come
from the same data used in the “Number of Deaths in the Current Year” variable.
54
Poisson regression is used to model the birth processes of the population as it is
the most easily used method for modeling an arrival process. Arrival processes are
extremely effective at modeling events that signal the arrival from one state to another, in
this case the arrival being the birth of the organization from previous non-existence
(Hannan and Freeman 1987). The Poisson model separates the period of time during
which arrivals occur into different temporal or spatial regions and relies on the
assumption that the arrivals in one time interval are independent of previous or
This elementary Poisson model is not sufficient for use in analyzing the foundings of
variables.
Unlike the birth analysis however, which took the unit of analysis of the
individual year and measured variables in aggregate, the death analysis concentrates on
the individual firm-year level – separating each year or portion of a year that a firm is in
55
event history analysis form of modeling which focuses on a binary code of whether a
given event happened to a specific organization at a specific point in time, or if it did not.
The event for this study is whether or not the airline disbanded in a given year.
As mentioned above, the model for performing a death analysis uses the event
history analysis framework for analyzing the likelihood of disbanding. Event history
analysis allows for the analysis of the causes for the occurrence of an event when looking
at a set of variables that affect the outcome. The key element of any discrete-time event
history analysis (of which this study is one, as data is measured not in continuous seconds
but on an annual basis) is the hazard rate, which is the likelihood that the given event
(disbanding) will happen to a given individual (airline) at a given time (year) based on
calculating the relative effect of other variables. The hazard rate is the fundamental
dependent variable in an event history analysis mode; in this case it describes the
likelihood that a firm will fail in a given year. Logistic regression is the most accepted
56
Results and Discussion
Organizational Foundings
57
In general the findings from the Poisson regression aligns with previous studies n
population ecology. All eleven models shows first-order density as having the projected
effect of increasing the number foundings as seen in the positive coefficient associated
with each. This supports the ecologists’ conclusion that higher densities (prior to the
all, first-order density showed very significant (p<0.01) in two models and significant
(p<0.05) in an additional four models. Second-order density was included in only one of
the models as it was shown to have an extremely small positive effect on the number of
births. One explanation for this is that the population of airlines has not yet fully
matured, and the population hasn’t yet reached ample size for the second-order effects to
become apparent. Supporting this are two additional pieces of evidence. First, in the
study of labor unions, the initial, smaller decline in density occurred when the population
reached approximately 180 unions, and the later, larger decline occurred at population
211 (Hannan and Freeman 1987). The number of airline firms only recently is
approaching the former of those numbers with a population in 2005 of 167 firms,
suggesting that the carrying capacity of the airline population may not yet have been
reached and that this current project measures only the pre-carrying capacity
environment. The second point, also illustrating a lack of full maturity of the industry
considers is the age of the industry itself. The passenger airline industry in Africa is only
74 years old this year and the first decline in the labor union population occurred between
70 and 80 years after the first labor union was founded. This also suggests that perhaps
the negative second-order density effects will begin to manifest themselves more clearly
within the next few years. That said, I do not mean to suggest that all organizational
58
populations have similar ages and sizes at full maturity – clearly this is not the case as a
study on semi-conductor firms showed maturity at industry year 30 and a population size
of 325 firms (Hannan and Freeman 1989). Rather, I suggest that is possible that not
enough annual observations have occurred among airlines to fully observe they second-
also has a positive first-order effect and a small second-order positive effect. Neither
birth variable ever has a significant effect at any level, and because of this and due to the
very small positive effect of second-order births shown in Model Two, the second-order
variable was excluded from the reminder of the models. Though first-order births do not
attain significant levels of interaction in the model, the positive coefficient suggests
alignment with traditional ecological models in that waves of births contribute positively
to number of births. Perhaps with a longer time period to study births, the second-order
effect would achieve significance and demonstrate the non-monotonic effect to its full
While the number of births in the previous year does not achieve statistical
significance in any of the models, the number of deaths in the preceding year attains
significance in every model. The prominence and stability of the significance of the
death variable highlights its importance among African airlines. With the exception of
Model 1, which excludes the second-order effects, all of the models in the birth analysis
Models 2 through Model 11 illustrate the non-monotonic effects of the number of deaths
in the previous year; the first-order effect has a positive coefficient, thus increasing births,
59
whereas the second-order effect has a negative coefficient, decreasing births. This
suggests that as described in the theoretical model, firms do not consider a small number
of deaths as a sign detracting from entry as many of the structures and facilities that the
recently deceased firms used can be easily acquired and utilized by the new entrants.
Facilities such as hangers, employees, and planes all can be easily retooled to
accommodate the new firms. Additionally, industry-wide resources are still seen as
plentiful enough to constitute and support new growth. However, as the number of
deaths approaches high levels, firms see this as a signal of the environment’s
The strength of the coefficient (ranging from 0.210 to 0.280) shows that death has a
powerful effect on predicting the number of births and implies that potential entrants to
the African airline market keep attuned to the failure of firms. In periods with few
numbers of deaths, firms must move quickly to enter the industry and acquire the
facilities and resources of the recently-disbanded firms. With the addition of more years
In addition to the effects of density, death, and births, the later models also
evaluate the effects that this project focuses on. Greater Africa independence was
believed to positively impact birth rates as administrative regions were split up into
individual countries each wanting their own airline, and the newly formed governments
sought to exercise their power by creating airlines. However, in each of the four models
three of the four models independence demonstrates a negative coefficient. Upon closer
60
examination of the data of specific firms, some airlines that were created in colonial
Africa to serve vast regions of colonial territory were disbanded following the end of
colonial rule to create more individualized state-based firms. A good example of this is
East African Airways Corporation, which was founded in 1946 and disbanded in 1977.
In the same year it was dissolved, three new companies – Uganda Air, Kenya Airways,
and Air Tanzania – were all formed, each representing an individual country within the
region that East African Airways Corporation had previously served. This suggests that
the effect of the independence variable may be captured in the death variable because
many of the firms that died resulted in new births, similar to the situation as that of East
African Airways. Thus, independence may indeed have an effect, but that effect would
be the breaking up of larger multi-national, regional level firms which in turn lead to the
The variable measuring the post-World War Two era from 1947 onwards has a
positive coefficient and retains statistical significance in each of the four models. The
coefficient ranges from 0.775 to 1.124 which indicates that 1947 to 2005 has a positive
justification for this effect is two-fold: the application of new technologies to a booming
industry and the establishment of greater legitimacy within the industry itself. The mass
production and usage of aircraft during World War Two continued after its end as air
travel became a safe and reliable form of transportation. World War Two effectively
served as a testing ground for new aircraft technology which in the post-war period was
applied to civilian markets in Africa that already had the necessary infrastructure.
Secondly, the development of the IATA and ICAO in the mid-1940s greatly increased the
61
legitimacy of airlines as an organizational form and through the interaction with
such as governments, financiers, and consumers. The end of World War Two also
signaled the beginning of the end of colonialism as India gained its independence in
The variable measuring the effect of the post-Cold War era (1990-2005) on airline
foundings was added simultaneously into the same models that included the post-World
War Two (1946-2005) variable, thus creating a 16 year overlap when both variables were
being considered as in effect. Constructing the model in this way allows for the analysis
to determine if the post-Cold War variable has an additional effect beyond that of the
post-World War Two era. As seen in the regression table, the coefficient measuring the
end of the Cold War has a positive coefficient (ranging between 0.353 and 0.644)
indicating that it contributes to firm foundings from 1990 onwards, and retain statistical
significance in three of the four models. And, because the variable is taken into account
simultaneously as the overlapping post-World War Two period, the variable supports the
above theoretical argument that the end of socialist and authoritarian regimes on the
continent as a whole, as well as more specifically the end of apartheid in South Africa all
contributed to the opening of markets and re-establishment of air routes that generated
Organizational Failures
62
The logistic regression analysis produced six models, each incorporating a
different set of variables; all models are included in Table 1.2. The results from the
death rate of a population, with smaller densities causing a lower death rate as
greater likelihood of death as competition increases near the carrying capacity and
resources become too scarce to allow all firms to survive. This leads to an expectation
that the first-order effect of density should have a negative coefficient as it decreases the
likelihood of death and the second-order coefficient should have a positive (or at the very
least a negative coefficient of less magnitude than the first-order effect). Among African
airlines, the first-order density coefficient remains positive in each of the six models and
achieves statistical significance in all but one. This runs opposite to the predicted result
failure, opposing the legitimating explanation devised by Hannan and Freeman. Second-
order density proves highly sensitive to additional variables and provides inconclusive
This at least partially agrees with Hannan and Freeman in that a positive second-order
positive coefficient suggests that competitive processes that take hold at higher densities
increase the likelihood of failure, but should not be taken as convincing evidence. The
other model including second-order density results in a variable that is very, very slightly
negative (-0.001) suggesting that larger densities may inhibit firm failure. Explanations
of both of these occurrences in the coefficients cannot be fully explained without more
63
in-depth research, but the significance of first order density suggests that population may
All of the models also include lagged births as a variable. In none of these
models do lagged births show any degree of statistical significance, and the coefficients
are consistently negative, suggesting that an increase in births in the previous year
decreases the likelihood of firm failure in a given year. Because the results do not show
significance and because Hannan and Freeman do not include this variable in their
As predicted in Hannan and Freeman, firm age has a significant effect on failure
This follows the theoretical conclusion regarding the “liability of newness” and the fact
that older firms have established legitimacy in the environment and accordingly have an
easier time acquiring the necessary resources to prevent failure. Firm age is the only
variable that remains statistically significant in all six models and its coefficient remains
That data also at least partially reinforces Hannan and Freeman’s belief in waves
of failure. The first-order lagged deaths variable does not show significance in any of the
models and has a negative coefficient in three of the give models.. The two cases which
had positive first-order coefficients were also the two models that included second-order
coefficients measuring deaths in the previous year; in each of these two models the deaths
lagged second order coefficient was negative, with one of the models showing the
negative deaths coefficients may in fact be non-monotonic, but with opposite signs as
64
originally predicted. When only the first-order variable is included, the coefficients for
lagged deaths are negative, opposing Hannan and Freeman’s original finding, in that
more airline deaths in the previous year decrease the likelihood of failure. However,
when adding the squared variable in, the sign on the first-order coefficient switches and
lagged deaths includes a negative sign, suggesting that very large amounts of death in a
year decrease a firm’s likelihood for failure. Hannan and Freeman’s original analysis did
not include a second-order lagged deaths variable and so it is impossible to provide a full
explanation effect but the cause may be the result of so few deaths (only 43 events)
occurring throughout the entire time period, as compared to Hannan and Freeman who
suggesting that population decreases risk of firm failure. This makes sense as population
increases would lead to increases in demand for air travel and raise load factors thus
increasing available resources for firm consumption. Out of the four models which
include population, two show the variable as statistically significant. When industry age
is added in (Model 4) population loses significance, which suggests that the two variables
are correlated. Because of the redundancy of including both, industry age was excluded
in the subsequent models and population regained significance in Model 6. There was no
need to include both population and industry age as the variables effectively cancel each
other out.
The results regarding the political period effects are mixed, with the post-World
War Two period and measure of African independence retaining statistical significance,
65
but the post-Cold War period not. The post-World War Two variable demonstrates a
argument addressed earlier. The establishment of the IATA and ICAO as well as other
organizations such as the World Bank and the IMF contributed to legitimacy of the
industry and established paths for resource acquisition. Greater ease in acquiring
resources allowed firms to stay alive for longer and decreased likelihood of disbanding.
Third-party organizations such as the IATA and ICAO helped to legitimate the
organizational form to the outside world and thus allowed the firms to garner more
allowed firms to run more efficiently and were easily applied to the African market due to
The other period effect (post-Cold War from 1990-2005) also demonstrated a
negative coefficient, showing that firms during this period had a decreased likelihood of
failure above and beyond any effect of the post-World War variable as the variables were
applied in overlapping time frames – and it did show significance at the p<0.20 level, but
was above the statistical threshold for this project. Firms in the post-Cold War era were
opportunities provided by the opening of markets following the end of authoritarian and
socialist regimes that previously limited investment. Additionally, the end of apartheid in
South Africa led a return of much Western foreign investment and aid as well as
previously forfeited air traffic routes, which provided additional resources, decreasing
scarcity and improving survival likelihood. One reason why the post-Cold War period
effect may not have shown statistical significant results is a lack of cases and short time
66
frame which the period captures. The variable captures only 16 years and because of the
young age of the firms created during that period, a right-censoring effect may be causing
the lack of significance. If this same variable was re-analyzed in 2050 (with an additional
45 years of data post-Cold War), right-censoring effects would be mitigated and the data
African nations also shows an effect of decreasing failure likelihood. Independence has
the largest coefficient of any of the variables and also demonstrates statistical
sovereignty and establish legitimacy in the international community. Firms were less
likely to die as more countries gained their independence because these new states
67
Conclusion
In general, the regression results support the hypothesis and theoretical arguments
outlined at the beginning of this paper. The end of World War Two increased birth rates
68
and decreased likelihood of failure because of increased legitimacy and the application of
new technologies to a booming industry. Strong evidence supports this claim as the post-
World War Two era showed significance in both the birth and death models. The post-
Cold War era saw an increase in birth rates and decrease in disbanding as more
democratic regimes came to power and oppressive policies such as apartheid came to an
end, allowing greater interaction between African markets and the rest of the world.
Though the post-Cold War variable showed significance in only the birth analysis, the
sign of the coefficient suggested that firms in the post-Cold War era had a reduced
likelihood of failure and would likely show significance with greater cases for study.
emphasis on using African airlines as political tools. And, independence impacted births
airlines could be established. All of these variables work when taking into consideration
traditional ecological models relating to density, age, and waves of birth and death; these
variables generally fall in line with other studies and as the industry further develops will
While I am quite pleased with the design and results of the study considering the
practical constraints, future research can surely provide a more comprehensive and
complete account of the industry’s dynamics. As discussed, I believe that the African
airline industry has not reached full maturity and an additional twenty years of data
would likely provide more accurate and complete statistical models. Added data would
69
cement the effects of the post-Cold War era and density variables by providing more
Because of practical constraints on both resources and time, variables cataloging the
network, and fleet size) were unable to be collected. The inclusion of these variables as
well as aggregate economic measures such as GDP would clearly provide a more
controlled and complete regression, giving greater standing to the results. Ideally further
analyses of the data would also include the variables measuring ownership type (public
vs. private), route type (international vs. domestic), and service type (charter vs.
scheduled). Data on firm ownership serves as a control variable in some respects, but
also as an explanatory variable for death rates and in understanding changes in regulatory
environments. Route type and service type variables would allow for analysis of sub-
populations within the industry to see if dynamics that occur within the aggregate
In addition to these added variables, two alterations to the scope of the study
would also prove insightful. First, as growth of the airline industry continues in Africa,
there will soon be enough data to investigate the industries of individual countries such as
Nigeria and South Africa, both of which have seen tremendous growth in recent years.
Analysis of these national industries can provide knowledge of how specific regimes and
policies within a more homogenous regulatory and political environment affect airline
regional comparison between the dynamics of the African airline industry and that of
70
other developing regions such as Southeast Asia and Latin America would provide
equally insightful findings. Understanding how political events such as the Cold War or
the end of World War Two impact these global regions in different ways and to varying
degrees serves as an enticing future project. My hope is to return to this project in a few
years and attempt to refine the analysis so as to incorporate these additional measures.
Implications
I hope that this project has provided insight into a number of things related to both
population ecology and Africa. In regards to population ecology, I have shown that
ecologists should devote more time to study the role of global level political events on
War, post-World War Two, and independence variables show that these events clearly
affected the birth and death rates of airlines in Africa, despite the fact that many of these
events were global in nature. Rather than localizing political effects, ecologists should
expend greater effort on studying the role of world-level events and processes on
localized populations; such analyses can provide greater insight into the historical and
macro-level processes at play and better refine any ecological model. Secondly, by
replicating many of the same results as other ecologists when studying a multi-national
airline industry, I have shown that the scope of ecology can be applied on an international
scale. Clearly, my analysis would support this premise even more if I had included other
control variables, but the initial conclusions show that even industries that transcend
71
population ecology needs to move further towards the international level and away from
results have shown that the same political policies that result in increased births also
cause decreased mortality, something that runs counter to previous findings. This
political processes in the same environment affect birth and death rates in different ways.
Finally, my results have given further credence to the original findings by ecologists
related to density, age, and rate dependence in organizational populations. Though not
entirely parallel, my results generally modeled previous findings and found that
population ecology continues to serve as a legitimate and valuable tool for analyzing
organizational populations.
Beyond the implications for organizational ecology, my results also benefit the
developing world, we can better understand underlying mechanisms that may not be
intuitive at first glance. Clarifying the role that global political change such as the end of
the Cold War play in the dynamics of the airline industry serves as a starting point for
organizations in regards to environmental signals regarding density and birth and death
rates. Essentially, we gain a better understanding of the rules that govern African
originations and see that they are quite similar to our own. Through greater
understanding of the industry we can see how to best create a balance of government
72
global and regional political environment. Analyzing the nature of changes in the
industry’s population to regulatory policies and political shifts can greatly improve the
All in all, the African airline industry serves as a dynamic and interesting
population to study, not only because of its internal dynamics and processes but because
of its role as a catalyst for change by moving people, goods, and ideas around the world.
73
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Appendix
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