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SmartChart_November 9 2010

SmartChart_November 9 2010

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Published by: derailedcapitalism.com on Nov 11, 2010
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11/11/2010

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 1
 
James M Edwards 602.441.4303
SmartChart/Cycle Update
Wednesday 11-10-2010
 
Bias:
 
DI: SELL per the INTRADAY guidelines
 
 
Key numbers
:
Intraday Break Point:
 Buy above 1219.75sell below 1219
Cycle:
current reading is 615
Cycle Stage:
buy
 
 
POMO: New schedule due out on November 10th
Pre-market:
Premarket talks about those items that directly affect what we will be doing each day in the market.Premarket has NOTHING to do with macro economics.
Ok, here is the deal: we wait for the corrective move to complete with todays outside range day issuing
a sell signal. The Next daily buy we jump on. By then we will have Ben’s schedule etc.
 http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/ the above report comes out tomorrow at 10am, it front runs the Chicago Activity IndexREAD THE LAST SENTENCE:So yes I have had, long before published articles like this, my reasons for being overly cautious. It isindeed new ground directly managed by the FED.
Posted: 08 Nov 2010 09:00 PM PST
Since the middle of October our Daily Growth Index has begun to show signs of forming a bottom tothe contraction event in consumer demand that we have been closely monitoring throughout 2010:
 
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James M Edwards 602.441.4303
(Click on chart for fuller resolution)
 This upturn is most clearly visible in our "Contraction Watch," where the day-by-day courses of the2008 and 2010 contractions are plotted in a superimposed manner with the plots aligned on the leftmargin at the first day during each event that our Daily Growth Index went negative. The plots thenprogress day-by-day to the right, tracing out the changes in the daily rate of contraction in consumerdemand for the two events:
 
 3
 
James M Edwards 602.441.4303
(Click on chart for fuller resolution)
 Several points should be made about the upturn clearly visible in the above charts:-- Our Daily Growth Index is a 91-day trailing "quarter" moving average of our Weighted CompositeIndex (converted from a nominal base-100 index into a +/- percentage). As a result of the movingaverage process this upward movement in the index is largely a consequence of very depressed Julyand August levels in the Weighted Composite Index now falling out of the average.-- The current daily values of the Weighted Composite Index now entering the averaging processcorrespond with a Daily Growth Index contracting at about a -4% rate. While this is a substantialimprovement over the July and August values (which reached a nearly -9.5% daily contraction rateon August 1), it still represents substantial year-over-year contraction -- far short of a new round of "green shoots."-- We have commented before that the "Contraction Watch" chart above has something resemblinga gently sloping plateau in the blue 2010 line that starts at about Day 50 in the contraction andextends perhaps as far as Day 170. We understand that the sharp downturn after Day 170 is areflection of poor year-over-year comparisons to a period in 2009 when the "Cash for Clunkers" andFederal Home Buyer Tax Credits were in full effect. But the sloping plateau represents year-over-year

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