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Thayer South China Sea or Southeast Asia Sea

Thayer South China Sea or Southeast Asia Sea

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Published by Carlyle Alan Thayer
An analysis of the South China Sea as an agenda item at the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus Eight and ASEAN Summit in Hanoi in October.
An analysis of the South China Sea as an agenda item at the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus Eight and ASEAN Summit in Hanoi in October.

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Categories:Types, Research, History
Published by: Carlyle Alan Thayer on Nov 14, 2010
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11/20/2010

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original

 
 
Background
 
Brief:
 
South
 
China
 
Sea
 
or
 
Southeast
 
East
 
Asia
 
Sea:
 
Security
 
issues
 
Carlyle
 
A.
 
Thayer
 
November
 
7,
 
2010
 
[client
 
name
 
deleted]
 
1.
 
The
 
Defense
 
Ministers
 
Meeting
 
Plus
 
(ADMM+8)
 
in
 
Hanoi
 
reaffirmed
 
its
 
commitment
 
toward
 
promoting
 
peace
 
and
 
security
 
in
 
the
 
South
 
East
 
Asia.
 
Do
 
you
 
think
 
this
 
is
 
the
 
beginning
 
of 
 
international
 
security
 
cooperation
 
for
 
the
 
region,
 
leading
 
to
 
specific
 
strategies
 
for
 
regional
 
security
 
and
 
relationship?
 
ANSWER:
 
The
 
ADMM
 
+
 
8
 
process
 
has
 
the
 
potential
 
to
 
contribute
 
to
 
peace
 
and
 
security.
 
First,
 
it
 
is
 
a
 
gathering
 
of 
 
eight
 
defence
 
ministers.
 
Up
 
to
 
now
 
foreign
 
ministers
 
have
 
led
 
regional
 
security
 
dialogue
 
through
 
the
 
ASEAN
 
Regional
 
Forum.
 
Second,
 
the
 
ADMM
 
+
 
8
 
is
 
to
 
set
 
up
 
five
 
Expert
 
Working
 
Groups
 
of 
 
defence
 
officials
 
to
 
work
 
on
 
key
 
areas:
 
humanitarian
 
assistance
 
and
 
disaster
 
relief,
 
maritime
 
security,
 
counter
terrorism,
 
peacekeeping
 
and
 
military
 
medicine.
 
Australia
 
and
 
Malaysia
 
have
 
volunteered
 
to
 
co
chair
 
the
 
Maritime
 
Security
 
Expert
 
Working
 
Group.
 
China
 
and
 
Vietnam
 
have
 
put
 
up
 
their
 
hands
 
to
 
co
chair
 
the
 
Expert
 
Working
 
Group
 
on
 
Humanitarian
 
Assistance
 
and
 
Disaster
 
Relief.
 
The
 
Philippines
 
and
 
New
 
Zealand
 
have
 
offered
 
to
 
co
chair
 
the
 
Expert
 
Working
 
Group
 
on
 
Peacekeeping.
 
These
 
groups
 
will
 
meet
 
this
 
December
 
and
 
report
 
to
 
the
 
ADMM
 
+
 
8
 
Senior
 
Officials
 
Meeting.
 
Since
 
the
 
ADMM
 
+
 
8
 
defence
 
ministers
 
are
 
not
 
scheduled
 
to
 
meet
 
until
 
another
 
three
 
years,
 
in
 
2013
 
in
 
Brunei,
 
we
 
will
 
have
 
to
 
wait
 
and
 
see
 
what
 
concrete
 
and
 
practical
 
measures
 
are
 
adopted.
 
The
 
emergence
 
of 
 
the
 
ADMM
 
+
 
8
 
precedes
 
the
 
expansion
 
of 
 
the
 
sixteen
 
member
 
East
 
Asia
 
Summit
 
to
 
include
 
the
 
United
 
States
 
and
 
Russia
 
next
 
year.
 
This
 
meeting
 
of 
 
heads
 
of 
 
government
 
and
 
state
 
has
 
the
 
same
 
membership
 
as
 
the
 
ADMM
 
+
 
8
 
and
 
can
 
approve
 
and
 
direct
 
their
 
activities.
 
2.
 
In
 
the
 
most
 
recent
 
ASEAN
 
Summit,
 
Secretary
 
of 
 
State
 
Hillary
 
Clinton
 
said
 
the
 
United
 
States
 
will
 
defend
 
the
 
countries
 
in
 
the
 
region
 
from
 
China's
 
threat.
 
What
 
is
 
your
 
opinion
 
on
 
this
 
statement?
 
ANSWER:
 
Secretary
 
Clinton
 
made
 
a
 
more
 
limited
 
reference
 
to
 
the
 
US
 
responsibility
 
to
 
take
 
sides
 
with
 
Japan
 
over
 
the
 
Senkaku
 
islands
 
disputes.
 
She
 
also
 
opposed
 
the
 
threat
 
or
 
use
 
of 
 
force
 
to
 
resolve
 
territorial
 
disputes.
 
My
 
reading
 
is
 
that
 
she
 
kept
 
up
 
the
 
political
 
pressure
 
on
 
China
 
by
 
offering
 
to
 
facilitate
 
a
 
process
 
of 
 
peaceful
 
resolution
 
of 
 
maritime
 
disputes.
 
But
 
the
 
US
 
would
 
not
 
play
 
the
 
role
 
of 
 
facilitator.
 
The
 
US
 
opposes
 
the
 
basis
 
of 
 
China’s
 
territorial
 
claims
 
and
 
argues
 
the
 
claims
 
should
 
be
 
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
 
2
grounded
 
in
 
international
 
law.
 
Sovereignty
 
over
 
maritime
 
areas
 
is
 
based
 
on
 
land,
 
not
 
an
 
ambit
 
claim
 
based
 
on
 
historical
 
discovery
 
which
 
is
 
the
 
basis
 
for
 
China’s
 
claim.
 
3.
 
Do
 
you
 
think
 
the
 
role
 
of 
 
the
 
United
 
States
 
and
 
its
 
alliances
 
would
 
have
 
great
 
impact
 
on
 
dispute
 
over
 
the
 
sovereignty
 
of 
 
the
 
East
 
Sea,
 
also
 
known
 
as
 
the
 
South
 
China
 
Sea?
 
ANSWER:
 
The
 
US
 
has
 
only
 
two
 
treaty
 
allies
 
in
 
Southeast
 
Asia.
 
Thailand
 
and
 
the
 
Philippines.
 
Thailand
 
was
 
one
 
of 
 
four
 
countries
 
at
 
the
 
ARF
 
meeting
 
in
 
July
 
that
 
did
 
not
 
mention
 
the
 
South
 
China
 
Sea
 
dispute.
 
Thailand
 
was
 
 joined
 
by
 
Myanmar,
 
Cambodia
 
and
 
Laos.
 
Thailand
 
was
 
vocal
 
prior
 
to
 
the
 
2
nd
 
US
ASEAN
 
Leaders
 
Meeting
 
in
 
September
 
not
 
to
 
mention
 
the
 
South
 
China
 
Sea
 
in
 
the
 
final
 
 joint
 
declaration.
 
The
 
US
 
and
 
the
 
Philippines
 
have
 
a
 
mutual
 
security
 
treaty
 
dating
 
to
 
1950.
 
When
 
the
 
Philippines
 
annexed
 
islands
 
in
 
the
 
South
 
China
 
Sea
 
in
 
1956,
 
the
 
US
 
made
 
clear
 
that
 
it
 
was
 
not
 
obligated
 
to
 
defence
 
the
 
Philippines
 
in
 
this
 
area
 
as
 
it
 
was
 
not
 
included
 
in
 
the
 
mutual
 
security
 
treaty.
 
The
 
current
 
government
 
of 
 
the
 
Philippines
 
is
 
willing
 
to
 
give
 
the
 
US
 
support
 
but
 
only
 
up
 
to
 
a
 
point.
 
The
 
foreign
 
minister
 
has
 
made
 
pointed
 
remarks
 
that
 
the
 
South
 
China
 
Sea
 
is
 
an
 
issue
 
for
 
ASEAN
 
and
 
China
 
to
 
resolve.
 
In
 
sum,
 
no
 
US
 
alliances
 
will
 
not
 
tilt
 
the
 
balance
 
on
 
matters
 
related
 
to
 
the
 
South
 
China
 
Sea.
 
4.
 
What
 
would
 
you
 
say
 
of 
 
Beijing's
 
declaration
 
that
 
the
 
enhancement
 
of 
 
China's
 
defense
 
is
 
not
 
to
 
pose
 
threat
 
to
 
any
 
country,
 
but
 
only
 
to
 
ensure
 
security
 
and
 
stability
 
and
 
promoting
 
regional
 
peace?
 
ANSWER:
 
This
 
is
 
a
 
reasonable
 
assumption
 
if 
 
you
 
accept
 
that
 
the
 
resolution
 
of 
 
the
 
Taiwan
 
question
 
is
 
an
 
internal
 
matter.
 
China
 
has
 
specified
 
conditions
 
under
 
which
 
it
 
will
 
use
 
force,
 
such
 
as
 
if 
 
Taiwan
 
declares
 
independence.
 
This
 
is
 
also
 
a
 
reasonable
 
assumption
 
if 
 
you
 
accept
 
that
 
China
 
can
 
pass
 
domestic
 
legislation
 
affecting
 
the
 
interpretation
 
of 
 
the
 
UN
 
Convention
 
on
 
Law
 
of 
 
the
 
Sea.
 
Finally,
 
it
 
is
 
a
 
reasonable
 
assumption
 
if 
 
you
 
accept
 
that
 
China
 
has
 
legitimate
 
grounds
 
to
 
fear
 
an
 
attack
 
by
 
the
 
United
 
States.
 
Because
 
China
 
is
 
not
 
transparent
 
about
 
why
 
it
 
is
 
spending
 
so
 
much
 
money
 
on
 
transforming
 
its
 
military,
 
this
 
has
 
given
 
rise
 
to
 
what
 
is
 
known
 
as
 
a
 
security
 
dilemma.
 
This
 
means
 
that
 
unilateral
 
steps
 
by
 
one
 
nation
 
to
 
secure
 
their
 
defense
 
causes
 
neighboring
 
countries
 
to
 
develop
 
their
 
military
 
in
 
order
 
to
 
counter
 
what
 
they
 
perceive
 
as
 
offensive
 
capabilities
 
acquired
 
the
 
other
 
state
 
(China).
 
China
 
has
 
used
 
force
 
in
 
the
 
Korean
 
War,
 
the
 
Sino
Indian
 
border
 
war,
 
the
 
1979
 
land
 
border
 
war
 
with
 
Vietnam
 
and
 
China
 
has
 
used
 
forces
 
to
 
acquire
 
the
 
Paracel
 
Islands
 
and
 
features
 
(rocks)
 
in
 
the
 
South
 
China
 
Sea.
 
Given
 
China’s
 
track
 
record
 
and
 
lack
 
of 
 
transparency
 
I
 
would
 
not
 
take
 
its
 
protestation
 
of 
 
a
 
peaceful
 
and
 
defensive
 
rise
 
without
 
a
 
grain
 
of 
 
salt.
 
5.
 
Vietnam
 
and
 
Philippines
 
both
 
claim
 
sovereignty
 
over
 
the
 
Spratly
 
Islands
 
but
 
both
 
governments
 
has
 
agreed
 
to
 
promote
 
the
 
implementation
 
of 
 
the
 
Declaration
 
on
 
the
 
Conduct
 
of 
 
Parties
 
in
 
the
 
East
 
Sea,
 
towards
 
a
 
code
 
of 
 
conduct
 
in
 
the
 
future
 
in
 
these
 
waters.
 
Should
 
this
 
set
 
a
 
good
 
example
 
for
 
other
 
countries
 
in
 
the
 
region
 
that
 
are
 
in
 
the
 
similar
 
circumstance?
 
ANSWER:
 
In
 
the
 
early
 
1992
 
Vietnam
 
and
 
the
 
Philippines
 
actually
 
reached
 
a
 
code
 
of 
 
conduct
 
to
 
govern
 
their
 
bilateral
 
relations
 
in
 
the
 
South
 
China
 
Sea.
 
In
 
November
 
1999
 
they
 
co
drafted
 
a
 
code
 
of 
 
conduct
 
for
 
the
 
South
 
China
 
Sea
 
that
 
was
 
rejected
 
by
 
China.
 
It
 
took
 
another
 
two
 
years
 
 just
 
to
 
negotiate
 
the
 
non
binding
 
Declaration
 
on
 

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