Dr.

SUTANTO PERT Analysis, EXAMPLE 1 Page 1 of 3

Suppose we have a project as shown below and we would like to use PERT approach to analyze
the project completion time.

The duration of each activity is presented in three different estimates.

Duration (days)
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
A 4 16 24
B 8 17 21
C 7 15 17
D 12 20 29

By using the three estimates of duration, we can calculate expected activity duration and variance
of activity duration for each activity. The results are listed below.

Expected Variance of
Activity Duration (days) Duration (days2)
A 15.3333 11.1111
B 16.1667 4.6944
C 14 2.7778
D 20.1667 8.0278

Next we find the expected length, variance of length, and standard deviation of length for each
path in the project.

Expected Variance of Std Dev of

Path Length (days) Length (days2) Length (days)
A-C 29.3333 13.8889 3.7268
B-C 30.1667 7.4722 2.7335
B-D 36.3334 12.7222 3.5668
Dr. SUTANTO PERT Analysis, EXAMPLE 1 Page 2 of 3

[1] Assuming the total project completion time follows normal distribution, what is the probability
that the project will be completed within 33 days?

Expected Std Dev of Target Project Probability of

Path Length (days) Length (days) Compl Time (days) Z T < target
A-C 29.3333 3.7268 33 0.98 0.8365
B-C 30.1667 2.7335 33 1.04 0.8508
B-D 36.3334 3.5668 33 -0.93 0.1762

Probability that the project will be completed in 33 days or less is about 0.1762.

[2] Assuming the total project completion time follows normal distribution, what is the probability
that the project will be completed within 37 days?

Expected Std Dev of Target Project Probability of

Path Length (days) Length (days) Compl Time (days) Z T < target
A-C 29.3333 3.7268 37 2.06 0.9803
B-C 30.1667 2.7335 37 2.5 0.9938
B-D 36.3334 3.5668 37 0.19 0.5753

Probability that the project will be completed in 37 days or less is about 0.5753.

[3] Assuming the total project completion time follows normal distribution, what is the probability
that the project will be completed within 40 days?

Expected Std Dev of Target Project Probability of

Path Length (days) Length (days) Compl Time (days) Z T < target
A-C 29.3333 3.7268 40 2.86 0.9979
B-C 30.1667 2.7335 40 3.6 0.9998
B-D 36.3334 3.5668 40 1.03 0.8485

Probability that the project will be completed in 40 days or less is about 0.8485.

[4] Assuming the total project completion time follows normal distribution, what is the probability
that the project will be completed beyond 37 days?

Expected Std Dev of Target Project Probability of

Path Length (days) Length (days) Compl Time (days) Z T > target
A-C 29.3333 3.7268 37 2.06 0.0197
B-C 30.1667 2.7335 37 2.5 0.0062
B-D 36.3334 3.5668 37 0.19 0.4247

Probability that the project will be completed in 37 days or more is about 0.4247.
Dr. SUTANTO PERT Analysis, EXAMPLE 1 Page 3 of 3