Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Save to My Library
Look up keyword
Like this
2Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
Thayer Vietnam Opens Cam Ranh Bay

Thayer Vietnam Opens Cam Ranh Bay

Ratings: (0)|Views: 698|Likes:
Published by Carlyle Alan Thayer
An geo-political and strategic analysis of Vietnam's decision to open Cam Ranh Bay to all navies in the world.
An geo-political and strategic analysis of Vietnam's decision to open Cam Ranh Bay to all navies in the world.

More info:

Categories:Types, Research, History
Published by: Carlyle Alan Thayer on Nov 15, 2010
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

01/03/2011

pdf

text

original

 
 
Background
 
Brief:
 
Vietnam:
 
Cam
 
Ranh
 
Bay
 
Carlyle
 
A.
 
Thayer
 
November
 
,
 
2010
 
[client
 
name
 
deleted]
 
I
 
am
 
working
 
on
 
an
 
report
 
about
 
Cam
 
Ranh
 
Bay,
 
because
 
Vietnam’s
 
Defence
 
Minister
 
Phung
 
Quang
 
Thanh
 
told
 
local
 
reporters
 
that
 
Vietnam
 
will
 
open
 
repair
 
the
 
facilities
 
in
 
Cam
 
Ranh
 
Bay
 
to
 
mainly
 
serve
 
Vietnam's
 
own
 
navy,
 
but
 
also
 
provide
 
services
 
to
 
foreign
 
navies
 
and
 
the
 
port
 
also
 
could
 
be
 
a
 
fuel
 
stop
 
for
 
aircraft
 
carriers.
 
Could
 
you
 
respond
 
to
 
the
 
following
 
questions?
 
1.
 
What
 
is
 
Vietnam’s
 
specific
 
plan
 
to
 
reconstruct
 
Cam
 
Ranh
 
Bay?
 
I
 
heard
 
Vietnam
 
would
 
like
 
to
 
build
 
up
 
the
 
economic
 
uses
 
of 
 
Cam
 
Ranh
 
Bay's
 
facilities.
 
How
 
is
 
that?
 
ANSWER:
 
Prime
 
Minister
 
Nguyen
 
Tan
 
Dung’s
 
offer
 
of 
 
ship
 
repair
 
facilities
 
at
 
Cam
 
Ranh
 
Bay
 
came
 
as
 
a
 
surprise
 
to
 
many.
 
It
 
does
 
not
 
appear
 
to
 
be
 
the
 
result
 
of 
 
long
term
 
development
 
planning.
 
With
 
the
 
exception
 
of 
 
the
 
air
 
field,
 
the
 
facilities
 
at
 
Cam
 
Ranh
 
Bay
 
have
 
deteriorated
 
since
 
the
 
Russians
 
left.
 
Vietnam
 
explored
 
the
 
possibilities
 
of 
 
turning
 
it
 
into
 
commercial
 
use
 
and
 
even
 
sent
 
the
 
then
 
president,
 
Tran
 
Duc
 
Luong,
 
to
 
the
 
Philippines
 
to
 
study
 
Subic
 
Bay
 
as
 
a
 
model.
 
Nothing
 
was
 
done
 
Since
 
then
 
there
 
have
 
been
 
domestic
 
pressures
 
to
 
develop
 
central
 
Vietnam.
 
Prime
 
Minister’s
 
Dung
 
proposal
 
has
 
a
 
definite
 
commercial
 
component.
 
2.
 
In
 
your
 
analysis,
 
why
 
does
 
Vietnam
 
want
 
to
 
revive
 
Cam
 
Ranh
 
Bay?
 
ANSWER:
 
Vietnam
 
would
 
like
 
to
 
earn
 
money
 
for
 
services
 
and
 
invest
 
and
 
build
 
up
 
Cam
 
Ranh
 
Bay
 
for
 
commercial
 
use.
 
Its
 
major
 
conglomerate,
 
Vinashin,
 
nearly
 
went
 
bankrupt
 
this
 
year
 
due
 
to
 
poor
 
investment
 
policies.
 
This
 
would
 
give
 
Vinashin
 
(National
 
Ship
 
Building
 
Company)
 
a
 
new
 
lease
 
of 
 
life
 
with
 
a
 
concentration
 
on
 
its
 
core
 
competency.
 
But
 
the
 
main
 
region
 
is
 
geo
strategic.
 
Vietnam
 
would
 
like
 
to
 
encourage
 
foreign
 
navies
 
that
 
sail
 
through
 
the
 
South
 
China
 
Sea
 
to
 
make
 
regular
 
port
 
visits.
 
This
 
would
 
ensure
 
that
 
they
 
patrol
 
the
 
sea
 
and
 
given
 
foreign
 
navies
 
a
 
further
 
stake
 
in
 
maintaining
 
stability
 
in
 
the
 
area.
 
Of 
 
course
 
the
 
Chinese
 
navy
 
would
 
be
 
welcome,
 
but
 
it
 
is
 
more
 
likely
 
that
 
the
 
navies
 
of 
 
other
 
foreign
 
countries
 
would
 
make
 
regular
 
visits
 
such
 
as
 
the
 
US,
 
Japan,
 
South
 
Korea,
 
India,
 
and
 
Australia.
 
3.
 
It
 
seems
 
there
 
is
 
a
 
great
 
opportunity
 
for
 
Russia
 
to
 
come
 
back
 
to
 
Vietnam.
 
It
 
said
 
Vietnam
 
will
 
hire
 
Russian
 
consultants
 
and
 
buy
 
Russian
 
technology
 
for
 
the
 
new
 
repair
 
facilities
 
in
 
Cam
 
Ranh
 
Bay.
 
Russia
 
also
 
has
 
some
 
military
 
cooperation
 
with
 
Vietnam
 
in
 
recent
 
years.
 
Why
 
does
 
Russia
 
want
 
to
 
revive
 
its
 
influence
 
in
 
Vietnam?
 
What
 
is
 
Russian
 
interest
 
in
 
this
 
region
 
now?
 
Why
 
does
 
it
 
want
 
to
 
compete
 
with
 
U.S.
 
in
 
South
 
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
 
2
China
 
Sea?
 
Vladimir
 
Komoedov,
 
a
 
State
 
Duma
 
deputy
 
and
 
former
 
commander
 
of 
 
the
 
Black
 
Sea
 
Fleet,
 
is
 
concerned
 
about
 
the
 
possibility
 
that
 
there
 
may
 
not
 
be
 
anything
 
to
 
deploy
 
in
 
Cam
 
Ranh.
 
“The
 
Pacific
 
Fleet,
 
whose
 
ships
 
are
 
supposed
 
to
 
monitor
 
the
 
waters
 
of 
 
South
East
 
Asia,
 
has,
 
for
 
nearly
 
two
 
decades,
 
not
 
been
 
supplied
 
with
 
new
 
military
 
equipment.
 
So,
 
what
 
will
 
we
 
deploy
 
in
 
Cam
 
Ranh?”
 
What
 
is
 
your
 
opinion?
 
How
 
is
 
the
 
situation
 
of 
 
Russian
 
Pacific
 
Fleet
 
now?
 
ANSWER:
 
Ever
 
since
 
the
 
end
 
of 
 
the
 
Cold
 
War
 
Russia
 
has
 
lost
 
its
 
footing
 
in
 
Southeast
 
Asia
 
and
 
Vietnam
 
in
 
particular.
 
Vietnam
 
has
 
longstanding
 
interests
 
in
 
developing
 
Vietnam’s
 
oil
 
and
 
gas
 
sector
 
through
 
the
 
 joint
 
venture
 
VietSovPetro.
 
Since
 
the
 
lae
 
1990s,
 
Russian
 
state
 
defence
 
industries
 
have
 
been
 
the
 
main
 
supplier
 
of 
 
frigates,
 
Sukhoi
 
aircraft,
 
air
 
defence
 
missiles,
 
land
 
based
 
anti
chip
 
missiles
 
and
 
other
 
technical
 
defence
 
equipment.
 
Russia
 
sells
 
Sukhoi
 
 jet
 
aircraft
 
to
 
Malaysia
 
and
 
Indonesia
 
The
 
Russian
 
Federation
 
has
 
growing
 
commercial
 
interests
 
in
 
arms
 
sales.
 
Vietnam
 
is
 
its
 
largest
 
customer
 
in
 
the
 
region.
 
Russia
 
has
 
also
 
been
 
awarded
 
the
 
first
 
contract
 
to
 
build
 
a
 
nuclear
 
power
 
plant
 
in
 
Vietnam.
 
This
 
adds
 
to
 
Russia’s
 
commercial
 
interests
 
in
 
Vietnam.
 
The
 
most
 
recent
 
defence
 
contract
 
is
 
for
 
the
 
sale
 
of 
 
six
 
Kilo
class
 
conventional
 
submarines.
 
The
 
contract
 
includes
 
provision
 
of 
 
training,
 
service
 
and
 
maintenance.
 
So
 
Russian
 
specialists
 
will
 
set
 
up
 
facilities
 
and
 
work
 
in
 
Vietnam
 
for
 
the
 
next
 
decade
 
if 
 
not
 
longer.
 
The
 
Russian
 
Pacific
 
Fleet
 
is
 
a
 
shadow
 
of 
 
its
 
former
 
self.
 
It
 
is
 
unlikely
 
to
 
make
 
a
 
significant
 
strategic
 
appearance
 
in
 
Southeast
 
Asia.
 
It
 
is
 
not
 
in
 
the
 
position
 
to
 
compete
 
with
 
the
 
US
 
Navy.
 
But
 
Russia’s
 
new
 
found
 
wealth
 
in
 
energy
 
resources
 
has
 
given
 
it
 
the
 
means
 
to
 
recover
 
some
 
its
 
lost
 
influence
 
on
 
the
 
international
 
stage.
 
This
 
has
 
prompted
 
dreams
 
of 
 
past
 
glory.
 
Vietnam
 
acts
 
as
 
ASEAN
 
interlocutor
 
with
 
Russia
 
as
 
a
 
dialogue
 
partner.
 
Russia
 
has
 
recovered
 
some
 
of 
 
its
 
former
 
influence
 
through
 
membership
 
in
 
the
 
East
 
Asia
 
Summit
 
which
 
it
 
will
 
 join
 
next
 
year.
 
Vietnam
 
is
 
the
 
major
 
conduit
 
for
 
Russian
 
influence
 
in
 
ASEAN
 
and
 
Southeast
 
Asia.
 
4.
 
How
 
is
 
the
 
Vietnamese
 
and
 
Russian
 
relation
 
in
 
the
 
recently
 
years?
 
What
 
will
 
Vietnam
 
get
 
from
 
its
 
cooperation
 
with
 
Russia?
 
ANSWER:
 
Vietnam
 
and
 
Russia
 
have
 
raised
 
their
 
bilateral
 
relationship
 
to
 
that
 
of 
 
strategic
 
partnership.
 
But
 
that
 
is
 
more
 
symbolic
 
than
 
real.
 
Bilateral
 
trade
 
is
 
low,
 
perhaps
 
less
 
than
 
US
 
$3
 
billion
 
in
 
total
 
value.
 
As
 
both
 
parties
 
admit,
 
the
 
commercial
 
side
 
does
 
not
 
meets
 
its
 
potential.
 
Vietnam
 
seeks
 
commercial
 
advantage,
 
because
 
it
 
can
 
conduct
 
barter
 
trade
 
with
 
Russia.
 
And
 
Vietnam
 
seeks
 
Russian
 
political
 
support
 
to
 
balance
 
the
 
influence
 
of 
 
other
 
major
 
powers,
 
China
 
in
 
particular.
 
5.
 
This
 
time,
 
Vietnam
 
does
 
not
 
say
 
it
 
will
 
rent
 
the
 
bay
 
to
 
any
 
individual
 
country.
 
Do
 
you
 
think
 
it
 
uses
 
the
 
strategic
 
bay
 
to
 
play
 
a
 
multilateral
 
diplomacy
 
and
 
make
 
sure
 
it
 
can
 
get
 
benefits
 
from
 
several
 
powers
 
include
 
U.S.
 
and
 
Russia?
 
ANSWER:
 
Vietnam
 
pursues
 
a
 
policy
 
of 
 
multilateralization
 
of 
 
relations.
 
By
 
developing
 
relations
 
with
 
Russia
 
it
 
adds
 
another
 
major
 
power
 
to
 
the
 
list
 
of 
 
countries
 
it
 
interacts
 
with.
 
Vietnam
 
wants
 
to
 
increase
 
the
 
interests
 
of 
 
all
 
countries
 
in
 
Vietnam
 
so
 
they
 
have
 
a
 
stake
 
in
 
Vietnam’s
 
development
 
and
 
stability.
 
The
 
reality
 
is
 
Vietnam
 
has
 
the
 
population
 
size
 
of 
 
a
 
middle
 
Chinese
 
province.
 
China
 
dwarfs
 
Vietnam
 
in
 
power
 
in
 
a
 

Activity (2)

You've already reviewed this. Edit your review.
1 hundred reads
Carlyle Alan Thayer added this note
For backround to Cam Ranh Bay see: Ian James Storey and Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cam Ranh Bay: Past Imperfect, Future Conditional,” Contemporary Southeast Asia, 23(3), December 2001, 452-473. Ian James Storey and Carlyle A. Thayer, “Scramble for Cam Ranh Bay as Russia prepares to withdraw,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, December 2001, 34-37.

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->