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Modeling the Life Cycle Cost of Jet Engine Maintenance

Modeling the Life Cycle Cost of Jet Engine Maintenance

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Published by ralf_seemann
This study discusses an approach for estimating the life cycle costs of aircraft engine maintenance.
Therefore, it provides resources on the primary factors that affect the maintenance costs of
commercial aircraft engines. Building on these resources, a parametric model is developed that
is capable of estimating the intervals of engine shop visits and the respective costs incurred at
each shop visit based on historic data from the aviation magazine “Aircraft Commerce”. The
primary influence factors of the model are broken down to engine take-off thrust, engine dry
weight, average flight length, applied derate and environmental conditions. The resulting model
is intended to complement an aircraft life cycle cost simulation tool, which is being developed at
the Institute of Air Transportation Systems at Hamburg University of Technology. Therefore,
the developed model is implemented into the existing Matlab programme sequence.
This study discusses an approach for estimating the life cycle costs of aircraft engine maintenance.
Therefore, it provides resources on the primary factors that affect the maintenance costs of
commercial aircraft engines. Building on these resources, a parametric model is developed that
is capable of estimating the intervals of engine shop visits and the respective costs incurred at
each shop visit based on historic data from the aviation magazine “Aircraft Commerce”. The
primary influence factors of the model are broken down to engine take-off thrust, engine dry
weight, average flight length, applied derate and environmental conditions. The resulting model
is intended to complement an aircraft life cycle cost simulation tool, which is being developed at
the Institute of Air Transportation Systems at Hamburg University of Technology. Therefore,
the developed model is implemented into the existing Matlab programme sequence.

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Published by: ralf_seemann on Nov 16, 2010
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Modeling the Life Cycle Costof Jet Engine Maintenance
Students Research ProjectbyRalf Seemannseemann.ra@gmail.com
HamburgOctober 2010
 
Abstract
Cost incurred by aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) make up a considerable
proportion of the total life cycle cost of an aircraft. For an evaluation of the economic efficiencyof commercial aircraft, it is therefore crucial to estimate its MRO cost. The largest share of these
cost are incurred by the maintenance of the aircraft engines. Engine maintenance is performed
on-condition in dedicated workshops mainly independent from the regular maintenance checkevents of the remainder aircraft. For a consideration of aircraft life cycle cost, it is hence also
necessary to predict the intervals of these engine shop visits.
The present study discusses an approach for estimating the life cycle cost of aircraft engine
maintenance. It provides an extensive review on basic concepts of jet engine MRO as well as on theprimary factors that affect the engine maintenance cost and intervals. Based on these resources,
a database was assembled from historic maintenance data provided by the aviation magazine“Aircraft Commerce”. Through linear regression analysis of the database, cost estimatingrelationships (CERs) describing the correspondence between maintenance cost/intervals and
basic engine specifications were derived. These CERs are complemented by a series of adjustment
factors that were developed in order to reflect additional influential effects, such as operational
severity or engine age. The resulting model demonstrates that reasonable figures for the engine
shop visit intervals and cost can be estimated by considering the engine take-off thrust, engine
dry weight, engine maturity, average flight length, applied derate and environmental conditions asprimary influence factors. Since the assembled database contains only maintenance information
of the currently mature engine generation, the validity of the developed model is limited to the
current engine generation. However, it is assumed that the basic maintenance characteristics
remain unchanged with the next engine generation. Plausibility tests, which compare the model
results with estimates for the maintenance cost of the next engine generation, indicate that the
more advanced engines can be represented by the developed model through the use of technology
factors.
The developed model is intended to complement the aircraft life cycle cost simulation tool
(LCC-tool), which is being developed at the Institute of Air Transportation Systems at HamburgUniversity of Technology. The LCC-tool uses Matlab as programming environment and enablesthe evaluation of technologies under the incorporation of expertise in form of technology factors.
Therefore, the resulting model was implemented into the structure of the existing Matlab
programme sequence.
I
 
Contents
List of Abbreviations VList of Symbols VII1 Introduction 1
1.1 Thesis Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 Thesis Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2 Literature Review 3
2.1 Aircraft Gas Turbine Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.1.1 Basic Principles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.1.2 The Turbofan Engine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.2 Aircraft Engine Maintenance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112.2.1 On-Wing Engine Maintenance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112.2.2 Engine Overhaul - Shop Visit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132.2.3 Engine Time On-Wing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192.2.4 Engine Maintenance Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242.3 Modeling of Engine Maintenance Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262.3.1 Reection of EMC in DOC methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272.3.2 Parametric Cost Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
3 Development of Cost Estimating Relationships 32
3.1 Database Assembly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323.1.1 Establishing the Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323.1.2 Review of Data Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333.1.3 Data Collection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353.1.4 Data Normalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363.1.5 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393.2 Data Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403.2.1 Candidate Relationship Screening . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403.2.2 Regression Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 423.3 Results of the Parametric Cost Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433.3.1 Shop Visit Interval CERs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433.3.2 Shop Visit Cost CERs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
II

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