Climate and Energy Program
2that characterize transatlantic relations have indeed shied,it is not necessarily to the detriment o the alliance.
Cooperation in a Changing Climate
Te security implications o climate change are most likely to be elt in areas o joint strategic concern overseas as they interact with pre-existing security dynamics. Te MiddleEast, sub-Saharan Arica, and South Asia are amongthe most vulnerable to climate change. Consequently,promoting shared interests, managing common threats, andexpanding the policy options or doing so in the comingdecades demands not only continued cooperation but also abroader and more comprehensive transatlantic partnershipthan in the past. Te ailure o the international commu-nity to strike a comprehensive deal to address climatechange through key international policy orums includingthe United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange, G8, G20, and the Major Economies Forum meansthat the West cannot rely on the development o a globalramework through which to pursue its strategic goals.While the pursuit o a globally coordinated response shouldin no way be abandoned, a contingency plan is required.In doing so, it is vital that the transatlantic community develop and share knowledge about the implications o climate change or oreign policy and deense. Much o thegroundwork or such a partnership has already been laid,as is evidenced by the large number o intelligence reviews,strategy papers, policy bries, and academic papers thathave come out o both the United States and Europe overthe last 20 years citing the implications o climate change asa pervasive challenge to national and international secu-rity.
However, more is needed to prevent the duplicationo eorts, address knowledge gaps, and orge a commonstrategy to address the challenges that climate change poses.
Assessing the Current State of Knowledge
Te implications o climate change or deense and oreignpolicy are complex. Tey are expected to aect a plethora o issues concerning choices about mitigation and adaptationstrategies, energy security, nuclear prolieration, migration,social justice and accountability, shiing territorial bound-
The US National Intelligence Council have published a range of regional impact reports,
which can be accessed at http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_climate2030.html
We are thereore orced to consider whether the transat-lantic relationship will still be central to the management o global security in this new era.
Transatlantic Relations in Crisis?
A number o recent media articles have suggested thatthe transatlantic alliance is in crisis.
While such hyper-bole overstates the extent o any ri between the Atlanticallies, the events behind recent proclamations cannot beignored. America’s international ocus has indeed shiedeast towards the Pacic as the United States reconguresits oreign policy to strengthen its strategic and economicposition in relation to, and in recognition o, the growingimportance o emerging powers in Asia. Europe is conse-quently becoming less central to the U.S. world view.
At the same time, the recent entry into orce o the Lisbonreaty has signaled an opportunity or EU member statesto ease their traditional post-war reliance on America orsecurity and economic prosperity as the EU steadily movestowards becoming a proactive security actor in its ownright. It is perhaps this shi in the orm o EU “actorness”that has posed one o the biggest challenges to transatlanticrelations. In ratiying the Lisbon reaty, the EU has raisedU.S. expectations o what the EU can achieve as a secu-rity actor — in essence, expecting EU member states toshoulder a larger share o the burden o maintaining inter-national security. Unortunately, this has been interpretedin some European quarters as meaning that EU resourcesshould serve American strategic interests, and it is perhapsthis tension that is inorming those who see a crisis in trans-atlantic relations.
However, although the strategic interests
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