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wp54

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Published by: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research on May 02, 2007
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Developing regional and local scenariosfor climate change mitigation and adaptation
 Part 1: A framing of the East of England
 John Turnpenny, Sebastian Carney,Alex Haxeltine and Tim O'Riordan
 June 2004
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change ResearchWorking Paper 
54
 
 1
 Developing regional and localscenarios for climate changemitigation and adaptationPart 1: A framing of the East ofEngland
John Turnpenny, Sebastian Carney*,Alex Haxeltine, Tim O’Riordan
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ* Tyndall North, UMIST, ManchesterContact email: j.turnpenny@uea.ac.ukTyndall Centre Working Paper No. 54June 2004
 
 2
 
Summary – Greenhouse gas emissions and their drivers
This is the first major part of the Tyndall Centre case study creating a set of scenarios of how the Eastof England Region may look in 2050 under large greenhouse gas emission reductions and withadaptation to residual climate changes. We set out an assessment (a ‘framing narrative’) of the regionfrom the perspective of climate change. This involves describing and analysing the current state of theEast of England’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, its vulnerability to climate change and how theseare influenced by factors outside the Region. There are two main purposes to this exercise:1)
 
To identify the most important drivers of climate change2)
 
Establish a base from which to build our scenariosAll activities emit GHGs, some more than others. We have used a spreadsheet emissions inventorymodel (GRIP) developed by the Tyndall Centre, regional strategy documents and reports, academicliterature and local knowledge to build our framing and assess where the key areas are. The principalfindings are (with approximate GHG proportions for 2000):DOMESTIC. 25%The main drivers of domestic emissions are poor energy efficiency of housing and an overall trend toincreasing energy use.INDUSTRY AND ECONOMY. Commercial sector 7%; Other industries 16%Emissions per unit of GVA are not high in the Region, since the commercial sector, a relatively lowemitter, is a major contributor to GVA. The trends are towards more development of the 'cleaner'businesses such as finance and ICT. The two main issues for GHGs are the danger of appearingcleaner by exporting major industrial emissions sources to developing countries, and the location of development, with its links to the need to travel.TRANSPORT. 29%The large rural areas and reliance on commuting make the East the largest transport emitter per headof all Regions. There is rising pressure nationally on increased road transport, and major links to thelocation of development and the need to travel.PUBLIC SECTOR. 5%The total is not high, but the value of 'leading by example' in reducing emissions from councilactivities, schools, hospitals etc. is high.CULTURE. This includes tourism and leisure, and it is difficult to quantify exactly how much GHGis emitted directly from these activities. These are important sectors for the Region, and rely onefficient transport. Under climate change the sector is likely to expand, with implications for GHGemissions.AGRICULTURE. 10%Agriculture, more than any other sector, indicates the links between climate change impacts andmitigation. Agriculture is a relatively large emitter of GHG (mainly from soils) for its GVA, and isvery vulnerable to climate change.WASTE. 3%The Region is nearly at capacity for landfill waste, and has a major strategy to reduce waste. Thefuture is likely to see lower emissions from waste from the region, but possibly at the expense of moving emissions to other locations.WATER

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