TERM PAPER

OF

Security and portfolio analysis

On

Mahindra Satyam
Fundamental and technical analysis

Submitted By Submitted To
Dinesh Kumar Mr.krishan gopal
Roll no :- RT1901B50

Regd. No :- 10901690

Class :- MBA-3 sem

Section :- T1901
 Lovely Professional University’
Punjab’

Acknowledgement

I would like to take this opportunity to express my

gratitude towards all those people who have helped
me in the successful completion of this term paper,
directly or indirectly. I would also like to express my
sincere gratitude towards ms .sukhwinder kaur
(my term paper guide) for her guidance and help
which she willingly provided at every step of my
term paper.

Dinesh Kumar
MBA-3nd Sem
Introduction of sat yam computer service

On 24th June company was incorporated as a Private Limited Co. for providing Software
Development and Consultancy Services to large corporations. The company was promoted by B
Rama Raju and B Ramalinga Raju. The company has set up two software Technology
Parks,one at Mayfair Centre, Secunderabad and other at Qutuballapur of Ranga Reddy Dist. of
A.P. The company also developed a software Development center in Bangalore. The company is
a 100% EOU under the STP scheme of the Dpt. of Electronics Government of India and exports
software to USA, Canada, Sweden and Germany etc. 1991 - On 26th August it was converted
into a Public Limited Company. 1992 - The Company went in for a Public Issue of Equity
shares. The company has set up facilities at Secunderabad, Hyderabad and Bangalore. The
Company has created infrastructural facilities consisting of workstations with modern
communication and networking equipment. Satyam went in for a public issue of equity shares
with the main objective of setting up a software technology park and a 100 percent export
oriented unit for software development with a dedicated 64 KBPS satellite link.1993 - During the
year company has entered into a joint venture agreement with Dun & Bradstrret Corp., U.S.A.
for development of softwares.1994 - On January 26th a joint venture company called Dun &
Bradstreet Satyam Software (P) Ltd. was incorporated. 1995- During the year company issued
37,17,000 12% unsecured fully convertible debentures part A of Rs.100 each on right basis for
the shareholders in proportion of 1 FCD for every 5 shares held. The company also issued
37,17,000-12% FCD's-part `B' Rs.60 per debentures in August which can be converted into
equity shares of Rs.10 each at premium of Rs.50 per share on August 1996. During the year
Two offices were set up, one in USA and other in Japan. And the company has added new
business partners in Australia, Canada, Japan and Europe. During the year company promoted 4
subsidiaries. Viz Stayam Renaissance Consulting Ltd., Satyam Enterprise Solutions Pvt. Ltd.,
Stayam Infoway Pvt. Ltd and Satyam Infoway Pvt. Ltd.
1997 - During the year company has added additional space in Secunderabad and Bangalore.
And new software development centers were opened in Hyderabad, Pune, Chennai and
Bhubaneswar during the year. The company has established a school at Indian Institute of
Information Technology at Hyderabad, joining a select band of global corporations like IBM,
Microsoft and oracle who are also participating in IIIT's activities. Satyam Computer Services
Ltd. (SCSL), the Hyderabad-based software company, setting up three more new software
development centres at Chennai, Pune and Bhubaneshwar. Satyam Infoway (P) Ltd. (SIL), a
subsidiary of Satyam Computers, has signed an agreement with Sterling Commerce,
International Group of the U.S. to provide electronic data interchange (EDI) and other value
added electronic commerce solutions throughout India.
Two new offices have already been set up in the US, and another in Japan. New business
partners have been added in Australia, Canada, Japan and Europe.nSatyam Infoway is a 100 per
cent subsidiary of the Hyderabad-based software major, Satyam Computer Services Ltd. Dun &
Bradstreet Corp. USA (D&B), is likely to buy out the 24 per cent stake of joint venture partner
Satyam Computers Services and gain majority control, 76 per cent of the stake is held by D&B.
The joint venture was set up to provide software services to D&B clients world wide. Dun and
Bradstreet Satyam Software is the largest single location software unit for D&B in the world.
Satyam Computer has four subsidiaries: Satyam Spark Solutions, Satyam Infoways, Satyam
enterprise Solutions and Satyam Renaissance, Consulting, Spark solutions focuses on software
products, Infoways operates in the field of electronic commerce and electronic data interchange.
Satyam Computer Services Ltd announced that it had divested its 24 per cent ownership of Dun
& Bradstreet Satyam Software Pvt Ltd (DBSS) in favour of Cognizant Software Solutions
Corporation, a subsidiary of Cognizant Corporation, US. Satyam Computer Services Ltd., has
been selected by the Switzerland-based World Economic Forum and World Link magazine as
one of India's most remarkable and rapidly growing entrepreneurial companies.
2007 Satyam Computer Services Ltd has on March 15, 2007 has announced that it has
implemented an organization-wide, virtual learning environment called Satyam Learning World.
Satyam Computer signs multi-year deal with Applied Materials. Satyam Computer Services Ltd
on June 04, 2007 has announced that it recently won Computer Associates Vision, Impact,
Progress (VIP) Award for an internal implementation and optimization of CA's service desk
platform. Satyam Computer Services Ltd on June 11, 2007 has announced that it has forged an
alliance with US-based JDA Software Group Inc., the leading provider of supply and demand
chain solutions to 5,500 of the world's top retailers, manufacturers, and suppliers.Satyam
partners in developing Hera FxV-India's first Digital Car launched at CII Conclave.
2008-Satyam Computer Services Ltd has informed that Satyam BPO, the business process
outsourcing arm of Satyam, a leading global business and information technology services
Company, on April 10, 2008 announced that it has won two prestigious Shared Services
Excellence awards from the International Quality and Productivity Council.-Satyam Computer
has announced it has inked a pact with Infospectrum to give third-party maintenance, repair and
overhaul (MRO) and component repair services for the global aviation industry.
2009 - Tech Mahindra has announced the name change of scam hit Satyam Computers as
Mahindra Satyam. This rebranding exercise symbolises an amalgamation of the values of
Mahindra Group with Satyam's fabled expertise, even as it retains that part of Satyam's identity
which signifies commitment, purpose and proficiency of the organisation and its people,
according to Anand Mahindra, vice-chairman and managing director of the Mahindra Group. -
Mahindra Satyam stated that it has secured contracts worth Rs 38 crore in the middle east and
north america region (MENA) in Q2 of FY 2009-10. Mahindra Satyam appointed Deloitte as
auditors.
2010 - Mahindra Satyam has inked a new 4 year offshore contract which is worth about mill
INTRODUCTION TO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

An investor can make more money if his investment decisions are based on actual movement
of share price measured both in money and percentage terms. It is also very important to predict
the future movements and also the true value of the securities.

Equity analysis is used in order to find the true value of the securities and also to know where
the prices are moving. It covers many aspects including the calculating various financial ratios
and charts to extremely sophisticated indicators.

EQUITY
ANALYSIS

FUNDAMENTAL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS ANALYSIS

Equity Analysis is broadly divided into fundamental and technical analysis. Technical
analysis looks at the price movement of a security and uses this data to predict its future price
movements. Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, looks at economic factors, known as
fundamentals.

The following are the major differences between fundamental and technical analysis:

 Fundamental analysis focuses on what is ought to happen while technical analysis

focuses on what has already happened.
  Fundamental analysis analyses the economic indicators and financial statements while
technical analysis makes use of the historic market data
 Fundamental Analysis advocates that every security has an intrinsic value which is not
reflected by the market price while technical analysis advocates that market price
accounts for everything.
 Fundamental Analysis uses tools like ratio analysis other valuation methods to find the
intrinsic value while Technical Analysis primarily depends on charts and technical
indicators.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the study of a company’s financial strength, based on historical data;
sector and industry position; management; dividend history; capitalization; and potential for
future growth. It is a stock valuation method that uses financial and economic analysis to predict
the movement of stock prices. The analysis attempts to find the intrinsic value of a security that
helps investors to make decisions.

The fundamental information that is analyzed can include a company's financial reports, and
non-financial information such as estimates of the growth of demand for products sold by the
company, industry comparisons, and economy-wide changes, changes in government policies
etc.

The various steps involved in the fundamental analysis are:

1. Macroeconomic analysis, which involves considering the overall health of the

economy and its future.
2. Industry analysis, which involves the analysis of the industry in which the company is
operating.
 3. Situational analysis of the company, studying their business model, management,
products and services, its current position, its future, etc.
4. Financial analysis of the company, which involves analyzing the financial statements
like balance sheets, income statements, cash flows and ratios.
5. Valuation, which attempts to find the intrinsic value of the securities of the company.

The approach to fundamental analysis is often referred to as E-I-C Approach. The E-I-C denotes
the three parts of the fundamental analysis. The three distinctive parts of fundamental analysis
are:

1. Economic Analysis
2. Industry Analysis and
3. Company Analysis

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS:-

Economic analysis is the analysis of forces operating the overall economy a country. It is a
process whereby strengths and weaknesses of an economy are analyzed and is important in order
to understand exact condition of an economy.

INDIA’S STRENGTH IN IT SECTOR

 Large growth potential

 Increasing outsourcing trend

 Export and global outsourcing will drive future growth

 Leveraging India advantages

 Rapidly improving infrastructure

 Indian technology production companies have demonstrated

capabilities to compete in the global market.

Government Policy
The duty cuts on telecom hardware and fiber will have a minimum impact.

The new fringe benefits tax has been introduced at the rate of 30 % of a specified portion of
various benefits. It’s an irritant as it’s parable by the employer.

NASSCOM, MAIT and other research firms such as IDC that suggest that the industry could
grow at CAGR of 40 % between now and 2008.

It is estimated that by March 2005 the IT industry will be worth a cool $ 28.2 billion (RS 12080
crore) and the industry is expected to by 25- 30 % annually over the next year.

IT companies are happy at the importance given to the infrastructure development by the
government and the announcement that 7 million jobs will be created by the IT sector 2009.

GDP

Year Mar Jun Sep Dec Average

2010 8.60 8.80     8.70
2009 5.80 6.00 8.60 6.50 6.73
2008 8.50 7.80 7.50 6.10 7.48

India Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 8.80% in the second quarter
of 2010 from a year earlier. The India Gross Domestic Product is worth 1217
billion dollars or 1.96% of the world economy. The economy has posted an
average growth rate of more than 7% in the decade since 1997, reducing
poverty by about 10 percentage points.

Interest Growth Inflation Jobless Current Exchange

Rate Rate Rate Rate Account Rate

4.50% 8.80% 13.73% 7.32% -13 46.7650

INFLATION
The Reserve Bank Of India has stated that it had seen an annual growth of 8.5%
steadily. The main priority of the Reserve Bank is to curb the ongoing inflation,
which peaked at 11% last month. Interest rates have been increased by the banks to
contain the inflation, but it could slow down the growth of the Indian economy in
the coming months. But even thought there has been a rise in the interest rates
there hasn’t been much change in the distribution of loans, the Indian customer is
hardly affected with the hiked interest rates.

FDI

The huge size of the market in the power sector in India and high returns on
investment are important factors in boosting FDI inflows to power. 100% FDI is
permitted to this sector under automatic route in almost all the power sectors in
India except the Atomic energy. There are huge opportunities of FDI in power
sector in India.

Economic Analysis:-

 The export of the company is good. They receiving huge export orders.
 The value of Rs. is increase as compare to previous.
 The Govt. taking more steps to manipulate the economy. They providing tax
assumptions to grow of industry. Many schemes have been launched by the
govt. to increase the GDP of india.
 The GDP of India increases from last year . it is the good indication for
investing in Indian market.
 The FDI in IT sector is 100% . so it can be good option for investment.

The overall economic condition of India is good. it can be a good option to

invest in Stock market specially in power sector.


INDUSTRY ANALYSIS OF IT
The importance of industry analysis is now dawning on the Indian investor as never
before. It is very important to analyze the health of an industry because no company is
operating in isolation.

AN-OVERVIEW
The Indian software industry has grown rapidly since the 1980s, with revenues increasing
from less than $ 100 million in 1985-86 to nearly $ 8.4 billion by 2000-01. During this
period, exports grew even faster, with their share increasing from less than a third to
nearly three quarters of revenues. This essay will analyze the domestic conditions under
which this export led industry has grown. Although global demand for software,
sustained by the PC, networking and internet revolutions of the 1970s, the 1980s and the
1990s respectively, played an important role in facilitating the growth of the Indian
industry, it was also available to other countries. India’s main software market, India is
hardly unique in possessing such labor force characteristics. Indeed, global demand and
the availability of high skill, low wage workface are necessary, but not sufficient
condition. If they were sufficient conditions, one must explain why India failed to take
similar advantage, unlike her East Asian counterparts such as Taiwan, South Korea and
increasingly China, of the globalization of semiconductor design and manufacturing since
the 1960s. In other words, the growth of India’s software industry must be explained in
terms of how shifting domestic policy conditions allowed her to take advantage of global
demand and her labor force characteristics to become, along with Israel, the leading
software
exporter by the end of the millennium.

Important large software players such as Infosys Wipro, satyam Computer Services
managed to beat the market expectation and continuously grow. The important thing is
stay in top of the computer software company’s current ranking. Other big fishes Patni
Computer Systems, Emphasis BFL try to improve its position in industry and win the
confidence of investors.
Through the 107 large and small software companies managed to see an improved sales
growth in compare to just 34 companies are under expectation and it’s near about 32%.
Out of all the 8 large computer software companies managed to see an improved sales
growth and reach to Rs. 15363.1 crore. Their OPM have just increase from 26.2 % to
27.0 %. Budget 2006 has all the ingredients for growing the domestic IT market faster,
the government focus on rationalization of custom duty is positive step to stimulate
domestic demand. The government decision to hike teledensity across all villages by
2007 will positively impact connectively, helping rural Indians to be part of the digital
revolution.

Industry Structure
The Indian software industry, a high growth sector, is fragmented, with the top 10 Players
accounting for less than 20 percent of the total industry size in 2001. The IT Services
industry is characterized by players of varying sizes, providing solutions to Myriad
verticals, the Indian software and services industry had around 2,810 companies
Operating within its domain.

The structure of the industry can be gauged from the following

table:

Annual turnover No.of companies

 Above Rs.1000 crore 5
 Rs.500 crore- Rs. 1000 crore 5
 Rs.250 crore- Rs . 500 crore 15
 Rs.100 crore- Rs . 250 crore 27
 Rs.50 crore- Rs . 100 crore 55
 Rs.10 crore- Rs . 50 crore 220
 Below Rs. 10 crore 2,483
 Sunrise Industry and the Growth for the Millennium

 A growth of 20.4 % in rupee terms and 28 % in dollar terms in exports

during 2003- 04
 Achieved a CAGR of 30 % in turnover and 37 % in export during last 5
tears.
 IT exports likely to grow by 26-28 % in dollar terms during 2004-05.

 Indian Industry Grow at over 32 % CAGR between 1999 and 2004.

Key factors behind growth in exports are:

 US IT investment boom
 Onsite staff supplementation growth fuelled by major technology waves
 Offshore growth led by anchor MNC customers
 New emerging service lines (R & D services, BPO)

Significant Strengths in R & D

 175 of the Fortune 500 companies have R&D operation in India

 A vast network of state-owned national research
 Laboratories Provides world-class support
  IT R&D services currently account for more than 15 % of Total IT
exports.

Opportunity in Software Sector

YEAR 2008 Market
 IT Service Export $28-30 bn
 Software products $ 8-11 bn
 IT Enabled Service $21-24 bn
 Domestic Market $13-15 bn
 Total $70-80 bn
 Export $57-65 bn

Strong Performance and Growth Potential

CAGR: 96-97 to 02-03: 24 % 02-03 to 08-09: 24 % By 2008, India will build a US

$ 40 billion Electronics Hardware Industry

IT industry by the year 2008 IT export 35 % of India’s Total Export in 2008 from
21.3 % during 2003-04 Share of IT Software & Services Industry in GDP IT
Export Likely to be 7 % of GDP in 2008 From 2.64 % of GDP during 2003-04
Company Analysis
Company analysis is the final stage of fundamental analysis. The economy analysis provides
the investor a broad outline of the prospects of growth in the economy. The industry analysis
helps the investor to select the industry in which investment would be rewarding. Now he has to
decide in which company he has to invest. Company analysis provides the answer to this
question.

In company analysis the investor tries to predict the future earnings of the company because
there is strong evidence that the earnings have a strong effect on the share prices. The level, trend
and safety of earnings of a company, however depend upon a number of factors concerning the
operations of the company.

The different issues regarding a company that should be examined are:

 The Management
 The Company
 The Annual Report
 Ratios
 Cash flow

Abount Satyam Computer Service Ltd.

Satyam Computer Service Ltd (SCSL) is a leading global service company , offering a wide a
wide array of solution customized for a key vertical and horizontals. From strategy consulting
right through to Implementing IT solution for customer , Satyam straddles the entire IT space. It
has excellent domin competencies in verticals such as Automotive, Banking and Financial
Service, Insurance and Helthcare, Manufacturing , Telecom-Infrastructure-Media-Entertainment-
Semiconductors(TIMES). As a driverse end-to-end IT Solutions
provided, satyam offers a range of expertise aimed at helping customers re-engineer and re-
invent their business to compete successfully customers ever-changing marktplace. SCSL to
report that the company has achieved Net Sales of Rs 20236.51 million in corporate to the one
year before it was 17319.43 million . The company growth was driven by a double digit offshore
volume increase and stable prices. Revenue for quarter three in 2004 of Rs 891.26 crore was
better than the guidencde of Rs 886 crore EPS AT Rs 5.49 was highest than the guidance of Rs
5.47. At Present , company have 372 active customer including 139 Fortune Globle 500 and
forture US 500 corporations. Company believe that the proporation of such customer to our total
customer base is one of the highest in the industy, reflectinthe strong brand. Satyam has been
ranked amongst the top 10 employers in India by the CNBC.

INTERPRETATION
With customer IT Budgets expected to grow at a rate higher than last year, the
company believes that they are in a strong position to garner a larger share of their
IT spending . In light of the improved prospects and better-than-expected
performance for the current year . Company revising revenue guidance upwards
for fiscal 2005. Company expectes revenue between Rs 3429 crore and Rs 3433
crore , implying an annual growth of Rs 34.9% to 35.1%.

Financial analysis
 Directors Report Year End : Mar '08

The directors are pleased to present their report for the financial year 2007-08.

Financial highlights

Rs. in crores
Particulars 2007-08 2006-07 Growth%

Income from software services 8,137.28 6,228.47 30.65

Other income 257.20 181.61 41.62

Total income 8,394.48 6,410.08 30.96

Operating profit (PBIDT) 2,085.74 1,710.73 21.92

Interest 5.94 7.61 (21.94)

Depreciation 137.94 129.89 6.20

Profit before tax 1,941.86 1,573.23 23.43

Provision for tax 226.12 150.00 50.75

Profit after tax 1,715.74 1,423.23 20.55

Equity share capital 134.10 133.44 0.49

Reserves 7,221.71 5,648.07 27.86

Transfer to general reserve 171.60 142.32 20.57

Earnings per share
(Rs. Per equity share of
Rs. 2 each)
-Basic (Rs.) 25.66 21.73 18.08

-Diluted EPS (Rs.) 25.12 21.25 18.21

Dividend rate
(Interim plus Final) (%) 175 175

Overview
For the financial year ended March 31, 2008, your Company reported a total income of Rs.
8,394.48 crores, comprising income from software services of Rs. 8,137.28 crores, and other
income of Rs. 257.20 crores. Total revenues grew by 30.65% over the previous financial year. The
company recorded an operating profit of Rs. 2,085.74 crores, and a net profit of Rs. 1,715.74
crores, representing a growth of 21.92% and 20.55% respectively, over the previous financial year.
North America,
Europe and rest of the world accounted for 60.35%, 20.58% and 19.07% of the revenues,
respectively. Offshore revenue during the year was 51.84%, while onsite was 48.16%.

Dividend

Directors recommended a final dividend of Rs.2.50 per share for your approval. This, coupled
with the interim dividend of Re.l per share already paid, raises the total dividend for the year to Rs.
3.50 per share.

Increase in the share capital

During the year under review, the paid-up share capital of the Company increased from Rs.
133.44 crores divided into 667,196,009 equity shares of Rs. 2 each to Rs.134.10 crores divided
into 670,479,293 equity shares of Rs. 2 each, consequent to issue of 3,283,284 equity shares of Rs.
2 each to Associates upon exercise of options under the stock option plans of the Company

Listing on Euronext
In a path-setting initiative, your Company listed its existing ADSs with Euronext Stock Exchange
(NYSEs European trading platform). With this move, Satyam became the first Indian company to
list on three major trading platforms around the world, making it a truly globally-tradeable entity.
The listing was also the first of its kind globally, under the fast-track mechanism. Europe is a
dynamic and growing market for your Company and our listing will demonstrate our continued
and growing commitment to the region.

Human resources

The total number of Associates on March 31, 2008 was 45,969, against 35,670 on March 31,
2007. The attrition rate for the year 2007-08 was 13.09%.

Balance Sheet of Mahindra

------------------- in Rs. Cr. -------------------
Satyam
Mar
Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
'04

12
12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths
mths

Sources Of Funds
Total Share Capital 63.25 63.85 64.89 133.44 134.10
Equity Share Capital 63.25 63.85 64.89 133.44 134.10
Share Application Money 0.19 0.45 1.78 7.85 1.83
Preference Share Capital 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2,517.5
Reserves 3,153.17 4,268.75 5,648.07 7,221.71
2
Revaluation Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2,580.9
Networth 3,217.47 4,335.42 5,789.36 7,357.64
6
Secured Loans 7.30 9.87 12.57 13.79 23.67
Unsecured Loans 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Debt 7.30 9.87 12.57 13.79 23.67
2,588.2
Total Liabilities 3,227.34 4,347.99 5,803.15 7,381.31
6
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08

12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths

 Application Of Funds
Gross Block 847.16 937.70 1,153.16 1,280.40 1,486.53
Less: Accum. Depreciation 597.76 685.41 803.74 930.45 1,062.04
Net Block 249.40 252.29 349.42 349.95 424.49
Capital Work in Progress 22.17 64.68 76.84 290.05 458.63
Investments 74.75 78.48 155.74 201.15 493.80
Inventories 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sundry Debtors 592.82 765.17 1,122.81 1,649.86 2,223.41
Cash and Bank Balance 346.20 558.92 1,144.18 593.16 1,143.10
Total Current Assets 939.02 1,324.09 2,266.99 2,243.02 3,366.51
Loans and Advances 187.34 155.06 298.12 394.07 766.04
1,469.1
Fixed Deposits 1,804.38 1,908.15 3,366.66 3,318.58
6
2,595.5
Total CA, Loans & Advances 3,283.53 4,473.26 6,003.75 7,451.13
2
Deffered Credit 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Current Liabilities 194.53 262.87 435.71 621.30 896.46
Provisions 159.06 188.77 271.56 420.45 550.28
Total CL & Provisions 353.59 451.64 707.27 1,041.75 1,446.74
2,241.9
Net Current Assets 2,831.89 3,765.99 4,962.00 6,004.39
3
Miscellaneous Expenses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2,588.2
Total Assets 3,227.34 4,347.99 5,803.15 7,381.31
5

Contingent Liabilities 8.68 38.22 134.45 267.20 623.28

Book Value (Rs) 81.60 100.76 133.57 86.65 109.71

Interpretation – company balance sheet reflect that company’s financial position

is strong and its current assets are increasing every year as well as current assets
also .due to high transaction of business its current liabilities are also increasing.

EPS-
Earnings Per Share 17.57 23.50 38.21 21.33 25.59
The earning per share is show the amount per share which a investor gets on its
invested money .company is able to provide increasing rate of per share return every
year. It measures the investor’s confidence in the firm’s future. The higher the ratio,
the larger is the investor’s confidence in the firm’s future.

Intrinsic value
The actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value
including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This value
may or may not be the same as the current market value. Value investors use a variety of
analytical techniques in order to estimate the intrinsic value of securities in hopes of finding
investments where the true value of the investment exceeds its current market value.
 INTRODUCTION TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a security analysis technique that claims the ability to

forecast the future direction of prices through the study of past market data,
primarily price and volume. In its purest form, technical analysis considers only
the actual price and volume behavior of the market or instrument.
Technical analysis mainly seeks to predict the short term price travels.
Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but
instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future
activity.

The basic assumptions of technical analysis are:

 The market discounts everything: technical analysis assumes that, at any
given time, a stock's price reflects everything that has or could affect the
company - including fundamental factors. This only leaves the analysis of
price movement for a particular stock in the market.
 Price moves in trends: In technical analysis, price movements are believed
to follow trends. This means that after a trend has been established, the
future price movement is more likely to be in the same direction as the trend
than to be against it. Most technical trading strategies are based on this
assumption.
 History tends repeats itself: Another important idea in technical analysis is
that history tends to repeat itself, mainly in terms of price movement. The
repetitive nature of price movements is attributed to market psychology; in
other words, market participants tend to provide a consistent reaction to
similar market stimuli over time. Technical analysis uses chart patterns to
analyze market movements and understand trends.
  Price Charts
A chart is simply a graphical representation of a series of prices over a set time
frame. Technical analysis uses various kinds of charts to show the movement of
prices over a period of time. The charts that are most commonly used for technical
analysis are:

 Line Charts
 Bar Charts and
 Candlestick Charts

Line Chart:
Line Chart is the most common and simple charts as it considers only the closing prices of the
stocks and ignores other values such as open, close, etc. The line chart is drawn by connecting
the closing prices of a stock over a period of time. The above figure shows the line chart for the
satyam computer Limited for 2 year period (April to June 2010)
Bar Chart:

The chart is made up of a series of vertical lines and two small horizontal lines, one to the left
and another to the right. The vertical line represents the high and low for the trading period,
along with the small horizontal line on the left to show the open price and another on the right
side to show the closing price. The above figure shows the bar chart for sat yam computer
service limited for 3 months period (April- June 2010).

Candlestick Chart:
Similar to a bar chart the candlestick chart also shows all the information like high, low, open
and close prices of the stock the only difference being the way it is visually constructed. Usually
traders feel that candlestick charts are easy to read because it clearly shows the relationship
between the opening and closing prices of a security. If the closing price is more than the
opening price the candle is shaded white. Conversely the candle is shaded black if the closing
price is less than the opening price. The above figure shows the Candlestick price chart of
satyam Industries Limited for a period of 2year(2008-2010) and also the patterns of candle
sticks.

Head and Shoulders

This is one of the most popular and reliable chart patterns in technical analysis. Head and
shoulders is a reversal chart pattern that when formed, signals that the security is likely to move
against the previous trend.

V – SHAPE:-
Volume is simply the number of shares or contracts that trade over a given period of time,
usually a day. The higher the volume, the more active the security. To determine the movement
of the volume (up or down), chartists look at the volume bars that can usually be found at the
Bottom of any chart. Volume bars illustrate how many shares have traded per period and show
trends in the same way that prices do
Volume:
Volume refers to the number of shares or contracts that are traded over a given period of time.
Usually a price chart is presented along with the volume which is represented by volume bars.
The higher the volume, the more active the security is. Volume is an important aspect of
technical analysis because it is used to confirm trends and chart patterns. Any price movement up
or down with relatively higher volume is seen as stronger and more relevant move than a similar
move with weak volume.

Technical indicators:
Technical indicators are mathematical formulas that, when applied to security prices, clearly
flash either buy or sell signals. Price data includes any combination of the open, high, low or
close over a period of time and most of the indicators use only the closing prices. For analysis
purposes, technical indicators are usually shown in a graphical form above or below a security's
price chart. Once shown in graphical form, an indicator can then be compared with the
corresponding price chart of the security. Sometimes indicators are plotted on top of the price
plot for a more direct comparison. A technical indicator offers a different perspective from which
to analyze the price action.
Some, such as moving averages, are derived from simple formulas and are relatively easy to
understand while some such as MACD uses complex formulas and are difficult to understand.
Technical indicators offer many uses such as:
 To confirm the trends
 To generate Buy/Sell Signals
 To predict the direction of future prices.
The technical indicators can be broadly classified into leading indicators and lagging indicators.
The leading indicators are those indicators which are designed to lead price movements. The
most common leading indicators are RSI and ROC. Lagging indicators are those indicators
which follow price action and are commonly referred to as trend following indicators. Some of
the most common lagging indicators are Moving Averages and MACD.
Some of the most common technical indicators that are used in this project are:
1. Moving Averages
2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
3. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
4. Rate of Change (ROC)

1. Moving Averages:
The moving averages are the most common and widely used technical indicators because of their
simplicity. Moving averages are formed by calculating the average price of a security over a
period of time. Moving averages smooth the price data to form a trend following indicator. They
do not predict price direction, but rather define the current direction with a lag. Moving averages
form the building blocks for many other technical indicators including MACD.
The most popular moving averages are:
i. Simple Moving Average (SMA)
ii. Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Simple Moving Average (SMA): A simple moving average is formed by computing the average
price of a security over a specific number of periods. Most moving averages are based on the
closing prices. A 2year simple moving average is the 2 year sum of closing prices divided by
five. As its name implies, a moving average is an average that moves. Old data is dropped as
new data comes available. This causes the average to move along the time scale.

Exponential moving Average (EMA): Exponential Moving Average is the moving average that
is formed by applying weight to the recent price changes. This reduces the timem lag. This
makes the EMA to respond faster to the price changes than SMA. There are three steps to
calculating an exponential moving average. First, calculate the simple moving average. An EMA
has to start somewhere so a simple moving average is used as the previous period's EMA in the
first calculation. Second, calculate the weighting multiplier. Third, calculate the exponential
moving average. The formula for calculating EMA is In the above diagram the SMA (15) and
EMA (15) are plotted where we can see that the EMA responds faster to recent price changes
than SMA. The length of the moving average depends on the analytical objectives. Short moving
averages (5-20 periods) are best suited for short-term trends and trading. Chartists interested in
medium-term trends would opt for 20-60 period moving averages. Long-term investors
will prefer moving averages with 100 or more periods.

Uses of Moving Averages:

The direction of the moving average conveys important information about prices. A rising
moving average shows that prices are generally increasing. A falling moving average indicates
that prices, on average, are falling. A rising long-term moving average reflects a long-term
uptrend. A falling long-term moving average reflects a long-term downtrend. Two moving
averages can be used together to generate crossover signals. A bullish crossover occurs when the
shorter moving average crosses above the longer moving average. This is also known as a golden
cross. A bearish crossover occurs when the shorter moving average crosses below the longer
moving average. This is known as a dead cross. Moving averages can also act as support in an
uptrend and resistance in a downtrend. A short-term uptrend might find support near the 20-day
simple moving average. A long-term uptrend might find support near the 200-day simple moving
average.
Calculation of 7 days moving average of sat yam Mahindra
DATE CLOSING PRICE
31-102008 304.8
30-112008 243
31-122008 170.15
31-1-2009 54.05
28-2-2009 41.5
31-3-2009 38.5
30-4-2009 46.6 128.37
31-5-2009 53.4 358.42
30-6-2009 70.9 67.87
31-7-2009 103.7 58.37
30-8-2009 113.85 66.92
31-9-2009 119.05 78
30-102009 102.2 87.1
30-112009 101.65 94.96
31-122009 96.45 101.1
31-1-2010 99.55 105.2
28-2-2010 95.55 104
31-3-2010 92.6 101
30-4-2010 94.5 97.5
31-5-2010 86.5 95.25
30-6-2010 91.5 93.8
31-7-2010 86.4 92.37
30-8-2010 80.85 89.7
31-9-2010 90.1 88.92
30-102010 78.9 86.96

The closing prcice of satyam computer service show a falling trend in price of its share .up
3. Relative Strength Index (RSI):
J. Welles Wilder developed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and introduced it in the June 1978
article for Commodities magazine. RSI is an extremely popular momentum indicator.
RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. RSI
oscillates between zero and 100. The most popular is the 14 days RSI where the RSI is calculated
based on 14 days values. Traditionally the stock is considered to be overbought when RSI is
above 70 and oversold when RSI is below 30. Signals can also be generated by looking for
divergences and centerline crossovers.

Calculation:
The very first calculations for average gain and average loss are simple 14 period averages.
· First Average Gain = Total of Gains during the past 14 periods / 14.
· First Average Loss = Total of Losses during the past 14 periods / 14
The second, and subsequent, calculations are based on the prior averages and the current gain
loss:
· Average Gain = [(previous Average Gain) x 13 + current Gain] / 14.
· Average Loss = [(previous Average Loss) x 13 + current Loss] / 14.
RSI Signals:
 The stock is considered to be overbought if RSI goes above 70. Since the stock is
overvalued, it is the right time to sell the stock and make profits
 Conversely, a stock is considered to be oversold if RSI falls below 30. Since the stock
is undervalued, it is the right time to buy the stock.
 A RSI reading above 50 is bullish as the average gains are more than the average
losses. On the other hand a reading below 50 is considered to be bearish.
 A bearish divergence occurs when stock makes a higher high and the RSI makes a
lower high
 A bullish divergence occurs when stocks makes a lower low while RSI makes a
higher low.
Calculation of RSI of satyam computer

DATE CLOSING PRICE

31-10200 304.8
30-11200 243
31-12200 170.15
31-1-2009 54.05
28-2-2009 41.5
31-3-2009 38.5
30-4-2009 46.6
31-5-2009 53.4
30-6-2009 70.9
31-7-2009 103.7
30-8-2009 113.85
31-9-2009 119.05
30-10200 102.2
30-11200 101.65
31-12200 96.45
31-1-2010 99.55
28-2-2010 95.55
31-3-2010 92.6
30-4-2010 94.5
31-5-2010 86.5
30-6-2010 91.5
31-7-2010 86.4
30-8-2010 80.85
31-9-2010 90.1
RSI= 100 - ( 100/1+RS)
Where RS = Avg. Gain /month(4.15)

Avg loss/month(10.99)

RS= O.3776

Hence, RSI = 27.41

. Rate of Change:
The Rate-of-Change (ROC) indicator, which is also referred to as simply Momentum, is a
pure momentum oscillator that measures the percent change in price from one period to the
next. The value of ROC oscillates around a central zero-point level. To calculate ROC a set
period is used to compare with today’s price. The most popular periods used are 10, 12 and
25 days.
The figure above shows the prices and Rate of Change for a period of 7 months.
Calculation:
ROC = [(Close - Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)] * 100
Where n=10, 12 or 25 days.
ROC Indicators:
 ROC indicator which is at a high peak and starting to move down is an indication of a
sell signal, whereas an ROC at a low peak, but staring to move upward, is a buy
signal.
 A movement toward the zero line indicates that the existing trend is losing
momentum.
 ROC moving from above zero to below zero level is an indication of sell while ROC
 moving from below zero to above zero level is an indication of buy.

RUNS TEST
Runs test is used to find out whether the series of price movements have occurred by chance. A
run is an uninterrupted sequence of the same observation. When the sequence of the observations
change we count it as a run.

Runs Test Z = (R-X) / o_

R = (n1 + n2) / 2

X = (2n1n2 / n1+ n2) +1

o-2 = {2n1n2 (n1n2-n1-n2)} / {(n1n2)2 (n1n2-1)}

n1 + n2 = number of observations in each category

o- = standard deviation
Z =standard normal variate
DATE CLOSING PRICE
31-102008 304.8 -61.8
30-112008 243 -72.85
31-122008 170.15 -116.1
31-1-2009 54.05 -12.55
28-2-2009 41.5 -3
31-3-2009 38.5 8.1
30-4-2009 46.6 6.8
31-5-2009 53.4 17.5
 30-6-2009 70.9 32.8
31-7-2009 103.7 10.15
30-8-2009 113.85 5.2
31-9-2009 119.05 -16.85
30-102009 102.2 -0.55
30-112009 101.65 -5.2
31-122009 96.45 3.1
31-1-2010 99.55 -4
28-2-2010 95.55 -2.95
31-3-2010 92.6 1.9
30-4-2010 94.5 -8
31-5-2010 86.5 5
30-6-2010 91.5 -5.1
31-7-2010 86.4 -5.55
30-8-2010 80.85 9.25
31-9-2010 90.1 -11.2
30-10-
2010 78.9

N1=10 ,n2=14
R = (10 + 14) / 2
= 12

X = (2*10*14/ 24) + 1
= 12.67

o-2 = {2*10*14 (2*10*14 – 10 – 14)} / {(10 + 14)2 (10 + 14 - 1)}

= {280*256}/ {576* 23}
2
o- = 5.43
o- = 2.33

RUNS TEST Z = R-X / o-

= (12-12.67) / 2.33 = -2.88
 CORRELATION:-
Serial correlation or auto-correlation measures the correlation co-efficient in a series of numbers
with the lagging values of the same series. Price changes in period t + 1 are correlated with the
price changes of the preceding period. If there is correlation between the price of t and t + 1
period, the points plotted in the graph would from a straight line.

Correlation formula:-

r2 = (ay + b (xy) – nY2) / (y2 – nY2)

b = (xy – nXY) / (x2 – nX2)

a = Y – bx

DATE 2008-2002009-10
correlation value
30-11 243 101.65 0.204325
31-12 170.15 96.45
31-1 54.05 99.55
28-2 41.5 95.55
31-3 38.5 92.6
30-4 46.6 94.5
31-5 53.4 86.5
30-6 70.9 91.5
31-7 103.7 86.4
30-8 113.85 80.85
31-9 119.05 90.1
30-10 102.2 78.9

10. REFERENCES

 KHAN M Y, JAIN P K., 2010. Management Accounting. New Delhi: Tata McGraw Hill
Education Private Limited.

 GREWAL T S., 2005. Analysis of Financial Statements. New Delhi: Sultan Chand & Sons (P)
Ltd.
 Available from: http://www.investopedia.com [Accessed between 1st June 2010 and 6th June
2010]
 Available from: http://www.mahindra.com [Accessed between 6th June 2010 and 10th June 2010]
 Available from: http://www.tatamotors.com [Accessed between 6th June 2010 and 12th June
2010]
 Avaiable from: http://www.ashokleyland.com [Accessed between 10th June and 20th June 2010]

 Available from http://www.oica.net [Accessed between 10th June 2010 and 16th June 2010]

 Available from http://www.siam.in [Accessed between 10st June 2010 and 16th June 2010]

 Available from http://icharts.in/oldcharts [Accessed between 1st July 2010 and 5th July 2010]

 Available from http://nseindia.com/historicaldata [Accessed between 1st July and 10th July]

 Available from http://munothfinancial.com [Accessed on 1st July 2010]

 www.money control .com

 www.nse in

 www.satyam commuter.in

 Security and portfolio analysis parsana chandra