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EQUITY RESEARCH
Meanwhile, the other two projects are FeNi Halmahera project and Nickel Pig Iron
Mandiono which will refine nickel ore are at risk of postponement in our view
Share Data since it requires significant amount of investment that reach US$ 1.5 bn. We
Out’ shares (b) 9.54x have not factored in these projects into our model due to the aforementioned
Market Cap (Rp b) 24,085 risk.
Major Shareholders Balance sheet clean, FCF generation strong. The company ended 9M10 with
Government 65% IDR 3,273.9bn in cash and debt of IDR 113.8bn. Further, we expect the company
Public 35% to spend IDR 1,500bn in capex vs guidance of IDR 2,352bn, for resulting
FCF/Equity yield of 8% in FY10F (refer to figure 2). The debt consisting of US$
52-WK range (Rp) 2,725 – 1,650 38.25 mn with 2 years loan facility and have already paid back 67% on June
12-m average daily T/O (Rp) 2,204x Xxx2010. We expect these loan will be fully paid this year.
Highlight
We address two main issues that ANTM will face with regard to the new mining Law and ANTM’s upcoming projects. In
relation to the new Indonesian Minerals and Coal Law No. 4 Year 2009, ANTM plans to shut down its commercial
activity on nickel ore and bauxite ore by 2014F since the Law prohibits ore export. This development has prompted us
to revise our forecast because ANTM will no longer exporting nickel ore and bauxite ore after 2014.
Since no longer exporting nickel ore and bauxite ore, for future growth ANTM has four upcoming projects that will use
both natural reserves. From four projects, only two that is visible at the moment. Both projects which are Chemical
Grade Alumina Tayan (CGA) and Smelter Grade Alumina Mempawah (SGA) will start construction in early 2011 and the
commercial production will start in 1Q14. We view positively on both projects since it will add value to ANTM’s bauxite
reserve and will replace sales of bauxite ore.
Meanwhile, the other two projects are FeNi Halmahera project and Nickel Pig Iron Mandiono which will refine nickel
ore. Both projects are expected to replace nickel ore sales that contributed roughly 20% to the total revenue. The
two projects are at risk of postponement in our view since it requires significant amount of investment that reach US$
1.5 bn. Moreover, we estimate sales downside during the transition because the successful of these projects will takes
about 2-3 years to reach optimal sales level in the new format.
In our model, we have factored in CGA and SGA in 2014F and we have tweaked our gross margin forecast for both
products with 20% and 30% respectively. Meanwhile we downgrade earnings from ferronickel division in 2011F as the
company plans to overhaul FeNi II and the production capacity will decrease to 18K Ton Ni. We have not factored in
the FeNi Halmahera project and Nickel Pig Iron Mandiono since we are questioning the financing schemes for both
projects. Other key takeaway from ANTM management is that the trading coal business will be stopped in 2011F
onwards.
CGA and SGA projects will have a total projects cost of US$ 1.45bn with capacity production of 300K ton and 1.2 mt
ton pa, each respectively. So far, both projects is ready for the preliminary development and construction which begin
on 1Q11. We believe, ANTM have a strategic position as it take a minority position especially in SGA project in the first
3 years before become a majority because of heavy amount of investments required.
After the completion, we estimate that CGA and SGA can bring in IDR 3,684bn of the sales turnover in a full-year
operation, which is equal to almost 40 times in the form of bauxite ore prior development. The estimated ROI for both
projects is about 15%.
With earnings from both projects start to kick on the beginning of 2015F, we expect the bottom line would only to
grow by 5% in 2015F, compared with 3% decline in 2014F. We do not expect the company to raise its dividend payout
as a result because the projects take several years to enjoy the return.
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PT Aneka Tambang Tbk
Source: ANTM’s material presentation 2010 Source: ANTM’s material presentation 2010
3Q Result Review
ANTM’s 3Q10 EBITDA increased to IDR 313.2 bn from previously IDR 286.4 bn in the same period last year. The
positive surprise came mainly from margin improvement – 3Q Group EBITDA margin increased to a record of 22.2%.
We believe the strong finish in 4Q10F is expected based the result of combination factors including rising in the
commodity price especially in gold and nickel ore, result in profit margin expansion.
However, ANTM reported consolidated sales of IDR 1,415bn, representing a decline of (24%) versus sales of IDR
1,871bn in the year-ago quarter. The sales decline of (24%) in the quarter was comprised of an (52%) decline in
ferronickel’s sales volume mostly and unfavorable foreign currency exchange to the buyers.
3,500 4Q est.
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
3
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk
Table 1: ANTM - Review and Outlook for Average Realized Selling Price for major Products 2009-2012F
Average Realized Price 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10F 2010F 2011F 2012F
Ferronickel (US$/lb) 4.72 5.66 8.14 7.52 6.63 9.38 9.38 10.24 11.60 10.15 10.35 10.96
Saprolite - Hi grade 39.93 39.40 66.52 70.44
Limonite - Lo grade 19.77 30.27 30.85 32.67
Gold (US$/Toz) 925 923 970 1,094 971 1,122 1,173 1,224 1,281.4 1,200 1,313 1,250
Bauxite 19.50 19.50 19.50 19.50
Silver (US$/Toz) 12.35 14.36 14.14 17.74 15.01 17.14 17.90 19.02 17.94 18.00 18.00 17.00
Table 2: ANTM - Review and Outlook for Sales Volume of Major Products 2009-2012F
Sales Volume 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10F 2010F 2011F 2012F
Ferronickel (Ton Ni) 1,161 5,914 2,564 4,552 14,191 1,663 8,080 1,223 8,034 19,000 18,000 19,000
Saprolite (Wmt mn) 0.55 0.91 1.01 0.85 3.32 0.91 0.92 0.68 0.99 3.50 3.51 3.80
Limonite (Wmt mn) 0.25 0.63 0.44 0.26 1.58 0.39 0.50 0.66 0.30 1.85 1.92 1.98
Gold (kg) 6,015 1,449 2,611 2,828 12,893 2,048 1,355 1,600 2,977 7,980 8,600 8,100
Bauxite (Wmt mn) 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.21 0.45 0.03 0.11 0.05 0.47 0.66 0.60 0.60
Silver (kg) 24,001 9,718 19,351 34,117 87,187 14,191 10,412 7,649 8,067 40,319 50,376 57,665
Cost of sales (2,479.5) (1,479.2) (1,571.1) (1,983.5) (7,513.4) (1,180.8) (1,728.1) (999.1) (2,399.3) (6,307.3) (7,015.2) (6,626.8)
Gross profit 162.1 276.2 300.1 396.6 1,134.9 474.3 929.2 415.9 601.9 2,421.3 2,737.1 3,003.6
Gross margin, % 6% 16% 16% 17% 13% 29% 35% 29% 20% 28% 28% 31%
SG&A & Other Oper. Exp (107.4) (140.9) (152.3) (209.9) (610.5) (131.0) (186.8) (234.6) (71.7) (624.1) (697.3) (688.6)
Operating income 54.7 144.3 138.2 250.3 587.5 343.3 745.3 179.8 528.8 1,797.2 2,039.8 2,315.1
Forex gain (loss) 11.1 (92.4) (102.0) (103.8) (287.1) (76.6) (21.7) (42.8) 19.4 (121.8) (56.8) (149.2)
Interest income (expense) - Net 34.6 42.6 23.2 3.7 104.1 14.8 8.1 11.3 85.3 119.5 94.9 102.2
Other non-operating - Net 6.42 73.67 22.85 276.49 379.4 (10.62) 29.53 113.56 (9.0) 123.5 165.8 169.3
Total Interest & other exp 52.2 23.9 (56.0) 176.4 196.5 (72.4) 15.9 82.0 95.6 121.2 203.8 122.3
Earnings before income taxes 106.9 168.2 82.3 426.7 784.0 270.9 761.2 261.9 624.5 1,918.5 2,243.6 2,437.3
Income tax exp (18.4) (38.9) (14.8) (116.8) (188.8) (76.6) (21.7) (42.8) (338.5) (479.6) (560.9) (609.3)
Tax rate -17% -23% -18% -27% -24% -28% -3% -16% -54% -25% -25% -25%
Source: Company reports, IPS estimates.
Minority Interest 1.4 4.6 1.4 1.7 9.1 1.3 0.0 6.0 (2.1) 5.2 7.7 10.4
Net earnings 89.9 133.9 68.9 311.6 604.3 201.9 554.4 194.2 493.6 1,444.1 1,690.4 1,838.4
EPS (reported) 9.4 14.0 7.2 32.7 63.4 21.2 58.1 20.4 51.7 151.4 177.3 192.8
Source: Company reports, IPS estimates
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PT Aneka Tambang Tbk
We rate ANTM Neutral for year-ahead performance. We expect ANTM to report solid 2010 earnings because the
pace of growth seen in 2Q that could pick up in 4Q. If the price of gold continues to increase in 4Q10F, 12M10’s
revenue would reach of IDR 8,727bn. The current 9M10’s result is 65.6% of our FY forecast and 66.1% of consensus.
ANTM is on track to meet our FY forecast.
We roll over our Dec-11 price target for ANTM to IDR 2,375 per share from IDR 2,600 on Dec-10. We
expect ANTM to report solid 2010 earnings, including various factors that may lead gold to spike in price for shorter
periods of time. In formulating our price target we have replace the revenue from bauxite (raw material) to the
Smelter Grade alumina (SGA) & Chemical Grade Alumina (CGA) forms and stop the commercial activity for nickel ore
division start in 2014F onwards. ANTM shares currently trade at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.4x versus peer group
range of 8.4x-12.2x (an average of 10.3x). ANTM shares have historically traded below the average for its peer group
due to the company’s concentration in the ferronickel and gold division, but favorable trends in its key market could
propel the stock towards the upper end of its normalized trading range.
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PT Aneka Tambang Tbk
Volatility of Commodities price. We view managing its high exposure to volatile the commodities price over the
short and long-term as key strategic issue for management. The impact, of course, will exacerbate the pressure on
operating margin thus potentially depressing net profit.
ANTM has high exposure in delay the project. The FeNi Halmahera project and Nickel Pig Iron Mandiodo project
are at risk of postponement in our view since it take a significant amount of investment that reach US$ 1.5 bn. Both
projects will be used to refine the nickel ore. We also see the sales downside during the transition because the
successful the project will takes about 2-3 years to reach optimal sales level in the new format.
Aggressive expansion raises forecast risk. Apart from the gestation projects as explained above, aggressive
expansion can solidify ANTM market position especially in China. It poses a downside risk to medium term earnings. In
this case, sales development becomes more critical given new products penetration to the market and high fixed cost
charges. In this case, we have to track how the new products are marketable closely. CGA & SGA would be the good
test case, we think.
6,000 5.5x
5,000 4.5x
4,000 3.7x
3.0x
3,000
TP
2.0x
2,000
1.5x
1,000 1.0x
0
Date Jul-06 Feb-07 Sep-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Jan-10 Aug-10
6
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk
Demand and Supply projection favor an extended period for nickel price strength over the next two years. We have
increased forecast for 2011F and 2012F by 4.2% and 10.4% to US$ 10.4/lb and US$ 11.02/lb, respectively. We remain
bullish on nickel as it supported by recovery strength on the stainless steel market in Asia.
Higher production of nickel in China, the world’s largest consumer signaling improved of the local demand and may
probably will climb to more than 11 mn tons this year from 8.8 mn tons in 2009. As the global economy recovers from
its worst postwar recession, we expect 2011 onwards may fueling demand for stainless steel industries and
consequently the nickel market.
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Nov-09
May-09
May-10
Dec-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-09
Sep-10
China Asia ex-China EU27 Others
160,000
50,000
140,000
120,000 40,000
100,000
30,000
80,000
60,000 20,000
40,000
10,000
20,000
- -
Nov-05
May-94
May-07
Dec-92
Jan-90
Jun-91
Jul-01
Jan-03
Jun-04
Oct-95
Apr-97
Feb-00
Oct-08
Mar-10
Sep-98
Source: Bloomberg
So far this year, the gold price has surge up to US$ 1,425/ton oz, putting it on track for its tenth successive year of
gain by end-2010. Most definite answer for gold price fluctuation is that the investors seek refuge from an uncertain
global economic outlook. Two of the most bullish factors in the gold market expectations is that U.S. Fed Reserve that
may rely more on inflation-stoking quantitative easing measures, and news that China aims for the gold market to
expand. Therefore, we increase our forecast on the gold price by 14.1% and 4.1% to US$ 1,313/ton oz and US$
1,250/ton oz in 2011F and 2012F, respectively.
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PT Aneka Tambang Tbk
INCOME STATEMENT (IDR bn) Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 QoQ% YoY% 2010F 3Q10/2010F Consensus 3Q10/Consensus
3Q10/Consensus
Revenue 1,861.7 2,443.7 1,655.1 2,660.2 1,413.5 -47% -24% 8,728.7 16% 8,661.7 16%
COGS (1,571.1) (1,983.5) (1,180.8) (1,728.1) (999.1) -42% -36% (6,307.3) 16%
Gross profit 290.6 460.2 474.3 932.1 414.4 -56% 43% 2,421.3 17%
Operating profit 138.2 250.3 343.3 745.3 179.8 -76% 30% 1,797.2 10% 1,955.1 9%
Interest expense (9.5) (9.1) (3.5) (3.5) (2.5) -28% -73% (12.3) 20%
Forex gain (loss) (102.0) (103.8) (76.6) (21.7) (42.8) 97% -58% (121.8) 35%
Other 22.9 276.5 (10.6) 29.5 113.6 285% 397% 123.5 92%
Total other income (exp) (56.0) 176.4 (72.4) 15.9 82.0 415% -247% 121.2 68%
Pretax profit 82.3 426.7 270.9 761.2 261.9 -66% 218% 1,918.5 14% 2,121.8 12%
Income tax (14.8) (116.8) (70.3) (206.9) (73.6) -64% 398% (479.6) 9%
Net profit 68.9 311.6 201.9 554.4 194.2 -65% 182% 1,444.1 13% 1,570.1 12%
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PT Aneka Tambang Tbk
9
PT INDO PREMIER SECURITIES
Wisma GKBI 7th Floor Suite 718, Jl. Jenderal Sudirman Kav.28, Jakarta 10210
Tel. (62-21) 5793 1168, Fax. (62-21) 5793 1167
Research Team
Branch Office
Boulevard Artha Gading Blok A7A No. 3 Ruko ITC BSD Lt.1 No 30
Kelapa Gading, Jakarta Utara Jl Pahlawan Seribu, Serpong - Tangerang
Tel. (021) 4587 4168 Tel. (021) 5315 6701
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Wisma Dharmala Surabaya Lantai Mezzanine Jl. Jaksa Agung Suprapto No. 40 B2
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Fax. (031) 548 7051 Fax. (0341) 352 924
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