Guidebook on Statewide Travel Forecasting

Sections

Chapter 1. Introduction
Structure of the Guidebook
Reasons for Statewide Travel Forecasting
Original ISTEA Planning Factors
Overview of Approaches
Time Series Methods
Overview of Three/Four Step Models
Calibration and Validation
Specialized Methods
Introduction to Data Sources
Key Data Sources
Key Census Databases
National Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS) Overview
American Travel Survey (ATS) Overview
Important Freight Data Sources
Commercial Economic Forecasts
Tools
Role of GIS
Software Issues
Composing a Complete Forecast
Chapter 2. Time Series Methods
What is Time Series Analysis?
Applicability of Time Series Analysis
Important Statistical Concepts
Growth Factors
Growth Factor Relationships
Linear Trend Model
Box-Cox Transformations
Moving Averages and Seasonality
Exponential Smoothing
Central Moving Average
Introduction to Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Methods
ARIMA
Autoregressive (AR) Models
Integrated (I) Models
Moving Average (MA) Models
Steps in Building an ARIMA Model
Extensions to ARIMA (Examples from WisDOT)
Cyclic Patterns in AR Models
Case Studies
Air Travel I: Brown and Watkins (1968)
Air Travel II: Oberhausen and Koppelman (1982)
Traffic Levels I: Maine VMT
Traffic Levels II: New Mexico Heavy Vehicle Traffic
Appendix: Some Elementary Statistical Concepts
Chapter 3. Passenger Forecasting
Urban v. Statewide Models
Sources of Travel Data
Defining the Scope of the Model
Statewide Network Preparation
Modal Categories
Purposes
Network Structure
Highway Network Attributes
Other Modal Networks
Zone Systems and Spatial Aggregation Issues
Socioeconomic and Demographic Characteristics
Other Data Issues
Model Steps
Trip Generation Issues
Trip Productions
Trip Attractions
External Stations
Balancing Productions and Attractions
Trip Distribution: Gravity Model (Production Constraint)
Doubly-Constrained Gravity Model
Friction Factors
Trip Distribution: Application to Statewide Forecasting
Mode Split
Logit
Logit Example, Forinash and Koppelman (1993)
Nested Logit
Nested Logit Example, More F&K
Mode Split Issues
Trip Assignment
Appendix: Overview of Four Step Models
Network Basics
Trip Generation Basics
Trip Distribution Basics
Mode Split Basics
Traffic Assignment Basics
Chapter 4. Freight Forecasting
Freight Model – Basic Steps
Key Freight Data Sources
Commodity Flow Survey
Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS)
Commercial Freight Data Sources
Other Interesting Data Sources
Local Surveys of Note
Defining the Scope of the Freight Model
Establish Goals for Model
Spatial Units
Selecting Modes
Network Development
Commodities
Developing a Flow Matrix
Trip Generation for Gravity Model
Gravity Model for Freight
Mode Split Methods
Pivot Point
Elasticities
Commodity Density and Load Weights
Traffic Assignment
Assignment Fixes
Other Freight Forecasting Issues
Combining Passenger and Freight Forecasts
Forecasting Inputs to a Freight Forecast
Chapter 5. Specialized Methods for Passenger Forecasting
Data Collection
Validation Data Sets: HPMS Element of the Traffic Monitoring Program
Single Station Origin-Destination Surveys
Truck Travel Surveys
Other Survey Methods
Validation Quality
Acceptable Error Plots
Stated Preference
Value of Time and Value of Frequency -- Tri-State
Single Mode Vehicle Occupancy: Michigan
Time of Day Considerations
Interstate Trip Rate
Development of Outstate Trip Generation for the Michigan Model
External Travel for Other State Models
Composite Utilities for Trip Distribution
Total Travel in Corridor: Wisconsin Model
Tri-State Total Demand Model
Hybrid Technique: Pivot Analysis
Review of Select Link Analysis
Pivot Steps
Pivot Method Refinements
National Defaults
Trip Table Estimation from Traffic Counts
SSOD in Validation
Integration of Statewide and Urban Models
Appendix: Review of Calibration Methods
Ordinary Least Squares (Linear Regression)
Nonlinear Regression
Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Fast Trip Distribution Calibration
Acknowledgements
APPENDIX: The State of the Art in Statewide Travel Demand Forecasting
A.1. Introduction
Method of Research
Organization of Appendix
A.2. Intercity Passenger Literature
Types of Intercity Passenger Models
Aggregate Direct-Demand Models
Disaggregate Sequential Models
One Disaggregate Direct-Demand Model
Single-Mode and Single-Purpose Models
Discussion
A.3. Intercity Freight Literature
Introduction
Reviews of Intercity Freight Models
Intercity Freight Models
Intercity Freight Mode-Split Models
A.4. Statewide Passenger Forecasting Literature
Data Collection for Passenger Travel
Data Synthesis for Passenger Travel
Trend Analyses of Passenger Travel
Statewide Models of Passenger Travel
A.5. Statewide Freight Forecasting Literature
Data for Freight Forecasting
Statewide Models for Freight Forecasting
Related Models
A.6. Two Recent Passenger Models
The Michigan Passenger Model
The Kentucky Passenger Model
A.7. Two Recent Freight Models
The Wisconsin Freight Model
The Indiana Freight Model
A.8. Recommendations and Conclusions
Recommendations for Statewide Travel Demand Forecasting
Conclusions
A.9. References
References for Section A.1
References for Section A.2
References for Section A.3
References for Section A.4
References for Section A.5
References for Section A.6
References for Section A.7
References for Section A.8

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