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The financial crisis has prompted an extensive debate on the lessons to be learned,
particularly from a regulatory point of view, and especially in the European Union,
where the crisis could mean a serious setback for financial integration. The
Larosière Report issued in February 20091 has set out guidelines for improving
the European regulatory framework and was substantially endorsed by a
Communication from the Commission and a detailed proposal for European
legislation.2 Although the Report has generally been praised for its effort to over-
haul European regulation, many details – where the devil loves to hide – are still
vague and have not been discussed enough.
This article takes a look at the main points on which the Larosière proposals
should be more detailed or stronger. In particular, there are seven points – they can
be considered the seven ‘‘sins of omission’’ – in the macro-level of prudential
supervision on which clearer and tougher solutions seem to be needed.
Furthermore, as a result of the need to reach a workable compromise between
different national interests, there are two unresolved problems in the proposals
for micro-supervision. Although it is true that, as Voltaire said, ‘‘the perfect is
the enemy of the good’’ (mind that he didn’t say ‘‘the better’’ as often misquoted),
the European experience has shown beyond any reasonable doubt that compro-
mises (and the committees that are expected to make them work) have not deliv-
ered the results optimistically hoped for. The last striking example was the
Lamfalussy procedure,3 whose results are negatively commented upon in the
Marco Onado is Professor of Financial Institutions at the Bocconi University, Milan, Italy.
Email: marco.onado@unibocconi.it
1
EU, High-Level Group on Financial Supervision (‘‘de Larosière Group’’), Report, 2009.
2
EC, Communication from the Commission; EC, Community Macro Prudential Oversight of the Financial
System; EC, Establishing a European Banking Authority; EC, European Securities and Markets Authority.
3
The Lamfalussy procedure, proposed by a committee chaired by Alexander Lamfalussy, was adopted by
the European Commission to enhance convergence in the regulation of financial services. The aim was to
simplify and speed up the complex and lengthy EU legislative process related to financial services by means
of a four-level approach. According to the procedure, the EU institutions adopt framework legislation
under the auspices of the Commission (level one). The Commission prepares the detailed technical
implementing measures with the help of four specialist committees (level two) composed of representatives
of the national finance ministries (the European Banking Committee (EBC), the European Securities
The International Spectator, Vol. 45, No. 1, March 2010, 59–73 ISSN 0393-2729 print/ISSN 1751-9721 online
ß 2010 Istituto Affari Internazionali DOI: 10.1080/03932720903562528
60 M. Onado
(footnote continued)
Committee (ESC), the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Committee (EIOPC) and the
Financial Conglomerates Committee (FCC) for supervisory issues relating to cross-sector groups).
In developing the implementing measures (level three), the Commission is advised by three committees
of experts (the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS), the Committee of European
Securities Regulators (CESR) and the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions
Supervisors (CEIOPS)). Finally (level four), the Commission – in close cooperation with the member
states, the regulatory authorities involved in level three and the private sector – checks that Community law
is applied consistently.
4
FSF, Enhancing Market and Institutional Resilience.
5
Group of Thirty, Financial Reform.
6
Unicredit Group, ‘‘Cross-border banking in Europe’’.
7
FSA, The Turner Review.
Is the Larosière Proposal on the Right Path? 61
There is, however, a silver lining to this cloud: given the level of bank concen-
tration, the main source of systemic risk can be controlled by focussing
macro-supervision on this group of banks. In Europe, the Financial Stability
Reports of the European Central Bank have identified a cluster of 35 ‘‘large and
complex banking groups’’. The vice-president of the ECB reports that at the end
of 2007 the 43 largest cross-border banking groups in the EU accounted for 76
percent of total EU bank assets, while in the euro area, the 30 largest cross-border
banking groups accounted for 73 percent of total bank assets.11
and not enough on the regulatory application and interpretation of the rules
(Pillar 2). Regulators refrained from asking their banks to increase their level of
capital, sometimes as a consequence of a form of regulatory capture, but also
because they did not want (or did not dare) to correct the market.
The excess towards automatic rules was one of the determinants of the
pro-cyclicality of the Basel requirements, which are now being amended. But it is
almost impossible to correct flaws generated by automatic rules with other automatic
rules.
In other words, future supervisory action must be based on a discretionary
assessment of the riskiness of individual banks and must take a more ‘‘hands
on’’ approach. The years of praise for the ‘‘light touch’’ are gone. This also
means that regulators need powers and instruments to translate their judgements
into action. As ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said, ‘‘at the level of the finan-
cial system, we need to be more resolute in preventing the build-up of risks. We
must strengthen financial stability assessments and develop mechanisms for trans-
lating them into concrete measures.’’13
Information
The crisis has also shown that regulators lacked fundamental information on the
global financial system: the formation of the shadow banking system and the
opacity of the over-the-counter (OTC) markets for structured products and deri-
vatives are significant examples. The regulators’ radar screens were blind to sub-
stantial portions of today’s financial system. Therefore, an efficient database
reflecting the modern global financial system must be set up, which means
taking the interconnections between banks into account. Regulators have to
know not only who owns what, but also who owes what to whom. They must
therefore have the powers and the authority to get the necessary information from
individual institutions. The next step will be to find ways and means to share the
data among the supervisors, particularly for large complex financial institutions.
To sum up, the Larosière Report seems to assign the ESRB the role of analysing
macro economic conditions and their implications for systemic risk and issuing
14
Par. 29, 11.
15
EC, Communication from the Commission, 5.
Is the Larosière Proposal on the Right Path? 65
16
Borio, Towards a Macroprudential Framework.
17
Ibid.
66 M. Onado
European proposals are extremely vague on this issue. The Larosière Report states
that when a warning is issued, it must be clear who must do what and suggests
different scenarios in which the ESRB could enforce supervisory instruments
(countercyclical provisioning, etc) to limit systemic risks. The European
Commission document says nothing on this.
Moreover, there is convincing evidence that warnings are not sufficient in the
European environment either. The ECB Stability Reports issued warnings in the
past, but as Lorenzo Bini Smaghi has said, ‘‘[I]t is clear that the warnings contained
in these reports were not heeded by the relevant authorities’’.23
In other words, the macro regulator needs not only voice, but also teeth.
5. The role of the European Central Bank
From a theoretical point of view, it is clear that the central bank should play
a leading role in the macro-prudential level of supervision. But in addition to
giving the ECB a fundamental position in the ESRB, it seems even more important
to amend the ECB’s present mandate to put monetary and financial stability on the
same footing.
For the ESRB to function efficiently, a precise procedure for handling possible
differences of opinion has to be established. To avoid stalemates (the more likely
the more delicate the problems involved) the person or entity that has the authority
to work out a solution has to be clearly identified. A solution could be to give
the ECB a casting vote (that is, the vote that decides in case of a split decision).
Moreover, it is clear that the ESRB and the ECB in particular must also have
a leading role vis-à-vis national regulators, should they fail to comply with the
22
King, ‘‘Speech at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet’’.
23
Bini Smaghi, ‘‘Regulation and Supervisory Architecture’’, 4.
68 M. Onado
warnings and recommendations issued by the ESRB. Such a solution has now been
proposed for the future British framework: the Bank of England would have the
final say in case of any divergence of opinion. Instead, both the Larosière Report
and the European Commission are extremely vague on these points.
6. The independence of the ESRB
A European body in charge of macro-prudential supervision must be fully inde-
pendent. This is an important condition not only per se but also because the ESRB
can put at risk, at least indirectly, the independence of the ECB.24 Nevertheless,
the European Commission has chosen to give a Commission representative a seat
(with voting power) in the Council (ESRB) and to allow the finance ministries
to be represented indirectly. Both these provisions entail substantial threats to the
ESRB’s independence and, above all, seem unnecessary, given the provisions on the
disclosure and accountability of the body’s decisions.
Moreover, the effectiveness of a supervisory body is strictly determined by its
endowment in terms of dedicated and high-skilled resources. The ESRB must
therefore have its own budget to hire the human resources needed to build the
database and conduct the research promoted by its Board, in cooperation with the
ECB. The staff can be temporarily seconded by the ECB or national central
banks, but in the medium term the ESRB should have a staff of its own.
Instead, the European Commission document proposes a simple ‘‘advisory tech-
nical committee [. . .] to support the ESRB, including preparing detailed technical
analysis of financial stability issues’’.25
7. The information necessary for macro-prudential supervision
Last but not least, information is crucial if macro-prudential supervision is to be
effective. The crisis has shown that systemic analysis must be based on both macro
data and a very specific knowledge of the risks inherent in the tangled web of large
complex financial institutions. As seen, in a broad interpretation like Borio’s,
macro-prudential supervision requires adequate information on the interlinkages
through which instability can spread. At the same time, for this kind of supervision
to work, the authority must be protected from falling victim to the many
information asymmetries typical of modern finance.
Instead, the European Commission deals with the problem of information only
at the level of micro-prudential supervision, when it states:
The European supervisory authorities should be responsible for the aggregation of all
relevant micro-prudential information emanating from national supervisors [. . .]
24
Should the ESRB be subject to political pressures, inevitably the ECB (and its chairman in particular)
would be in a very delicate position and the independence of the central bank could be threatened.
25
EC, Communication from the Commission, 7.
Is the Larosière Proposal on the Right Path? 69
The information would be available for the relevant authorities in colleges of super-
visors and may be forwarded in aggregate and/or anonymous format to the ESRB.26
As a result, the ESRB not only has no information power, but depends on the three
future European authorities for getting it, and then only in a format that is
absolutely useless from the point of view of analysing the interconnections.
In other words, the radar screen of the macro-prudential supervisors could be
blinded.
Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, has clearly stated: ‘‘effective macro-
prudential supervision depends on access to data and its translation into concrete
measures. Access to relevant data is essential for the assessment of risks and vulner-
abilities in the financial system. This is why such access must be part and parcel
of a well-functioning arrangement for macro-prudential supervision.’’ The ECB
Vice-President Lucas Papademos has added that ‘‘the development of the appro-
priate structure and the procedures for bringing together all types of pertinent
information, also in a manner that ensures strict confidentiality in the use of
micro data, will represent a major challenge, which will require analytical
sophistication, market knowledge and supervisory expertise’’.27
The creation of a European database for macro-prudential analysis requires,
first of all, close cooperation between the ESRB and national supervisors, as well
as with the relevant European Supervisory Authorities. As a consequence, the
ESRB should be given specific responsibility in this field as well as the power to
set down the reporting requirements for the group of large and complex financial
institutions.
Only if these points are solved, will a proper level of macro-prudential super-
vision be established – one that takes into account the lessons which must be
learned from the present crisis and that follows Borio’s guidelines.
So, the problem is not to abolish national supervisors, but to decide what kind
of body should be in charge of coordinating the decisions that are most important
from the point of view of micro-prudential supervision, in particular for European
LCFIs.
The Larosière Report and the European Commission discarded both the option
of creating a true system of European supervisors on a federal basis, similar to the
Eurosystem, and the option of giving the ECB responsibilities in this field, using
Article 105(6) of the Treaty of European Union. The second not only seems much
easier to implement under the present conditions, but is also more founded
theoretically.
Having discarded these two extreme but theoretically robust solutions, the
Larosière Report chose a compromise in an attempt to minimise the political
opposition from the main European countries. It is important to remember that
in the worst days of the crisis, notwithstanding the lip service paid to mutual
understanding and cooperation, all major countries worked out national – not
European – solutions for their banks. As a consequence, micro supervision will
be assigned to three European Supervisory Authorities (ESA), resulting from
an upgrading of the three committees in charge of coordinating supervision in
the fields of banking, securities markets and insurance.
The ESA will issue binding interpretations of European legislation and will be
the only counterpart for European banks with cross-border activity. The former
provision can make an important contribution to the harmonisation of European
legislation, but not to the harmonisation of supervision as such. The latter is
definitely an important achievement, but effective results will depend crucially
on three things: the definition of the banks to be supervised at this level; the
information that will be provided by national regulators to the colleges and there-
fore to the ESA; and the legal powers that will be given to the ESA. These
important points have not been detailed so far, particularly (and worryingly) in
the European Commission document. The problem is the same as the one already
discussed for the macro level of supervision: without clear rules concerning effective
powers and the decision-making process, it will be very difficult for ESA to reach
a decision, particularly during a crisis. The European Commission uses a very
vague word to define the position of the colleges: ‘‘lynchpin of the supervisory
system and [important players] in ensuring a balanced flow of information between
home and host authorities’’.29
Furthermore, the Larosière Report raises two important issues without providing
adequate responses. First, according to the Report, the so-called Lamfalussy
Procedure for fostering harmonisation of the regulatory framework has
produced very dismal results and the present regulatory framework in Europe
lacks cohesiveness. A very troubling example offered is that even the definition
29
EC, Communication from the Commission, 9.
Is the Larosière Proposal on the Right Path? 71
of credit institution and bank capital varies from one European country to another.
Bini Smaghi shares this negative assessment of the Lamfalussy procedure and finds
that ‘‘the Lamfalussy framework, which was supposed to promote the convergence
of regulatory and supervisory practices, has been insufficient’’.30 When the
Lamfalussy Report was published, many commentators were rather sceptical
about the efficacy of the proposed procedure. They were told that it was the
best possible solution as only a compromise outcome would be workable, given
the strong differences between European countries. The question therefore is: why
should the ‘‘Larosière compromise’’ work any better than the ‘‘Lamfalussy com-
promise’’? In other words, the ESA should be given very binding powers, otherwise
the current lack of cohesiveness in regulation will be replicated in micro
supervision.
The second problem is that the Report states that there is a disturbing ‘‘lack
of frankness and cooperation between supervisors’’. In particular, ‘‘as the crisis
developed, in too many instances supervisors in Member States were not prepared
to discuss with appropriate frankness and at an early stage the vulnerabilities of
financial institutions which they supervised. Information flow among supervisors
was far from optimal, especially in the build-up to the crisis.’’31 On this matter,
Bini-Smaghi adds that ‘‘in some countries, like Germany or Austria, where the
supervisory authorities are not part of the central bank, the supervisors consider
that they cannot deliver information on their own institutions to European
authorities for reasons of confidentiality’’.32
Neither the Report nor the Commission make any specific recommendation to
remove these obstacles. This could prove to be a major flaw for the efficient
working of the future European authorities. The rather byzantine structure of
the micro level of supervision could make effective decision-making very difficult,
particularly during a financial crisis.33
Conclusions
The crisis has shown that we need to strengthen prudential regulation, particularly
for the core group of large complex financial institutions. This need is particularly
felt in the European area, at both the macro and micro level, as a necessary step
towards financial integration.
The Larosière Report contains interesting proposals which however appear to
reflect the typical compromise between national interests. The solutions appear
politically workable, but show numerous weaknesses and have raised many
30
Bini Smaghi, ‘‘Regulation and Supervisory Architecture’’.
31
Larosière Report, 41.
32
Bini Smaghi, ‘‘Regulation and Supervisory Architecture’’.
33
The Chairman of the Italian Securities regulator seems to share this doubt. See Cardia, Audizione del
Presidente della Consob.
72 M. Onado
unanswered questions. From this point of view, they risk replicating the dismal
results of the Lamfalussy procedure, which is fiercely criticised in the report itself.
These issues should be taken into account when the proposals for legislation
inspired by the Larosière Report will be discussed by the European Parliament,
presumably in early 2010.
It is certainly important to set up committees for discussing supervisory matters
at the supra-national level, but as one of Europe’s founding fathers, Jean Monnet,
said: ‘‘I have too often observed the limits of coordination. It is a method which
promotes discussion, but it does not lead to a decision.’’34
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