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Montgomery County and Growth

Montgomery County and Growth

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Published by M-NCPPC

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Published by: M-NCPPC on Aug 03, 2008
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05/20/2010

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 23
Educational Attainment
Montgomery CountyAdults Ages 25+8%9%8%28%22%22%
5%7%6%
29%29%29%31%34%35%199720032005
Source:
M-NCPPC, Census Update Survey
Less than High SchoolHigh School Graduate Associate’s Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate Degree
Montgomery County and Growth
Today
Ranked 45
th
in population, Montgomery County is among the most affluent and well-educated counties in the nation
.
The County’s 2004 median household income of $83,830 is among the highest in theUnited States; roughly 41 percent of County households have incomes of $100,000 ormore. In the latest American Community Survey rankings, Montgomery County placedfirst among large counties
1
for the percentage of residents with graduate degrees, andthird for college-educated residents. The unemployment rate has remained below stateand national levels over the past decade, ranging from a low of 1.9 percent in 1999 to ahigh of 3.5 percent in 2000, standing at 2.9 percent in 2006.More striking is the fact that, to date, Montgomery County has sustained these very highlevels of income, education and employment through an extended period of dynamicgrowth and change that has dramatically reshaped its demographic, economic andphysical environment. Its ability to continue doing so, however, will depend on how wellMontgomery County absorbs and manages the long run impacts of this ongoing growthand change.Housing, educating, protecting, employing and transporting a larger—and far morediverse—population are among the critical challenges that Montgomery County facesnow and in the future. The purpose of this report is to outline some of the key trendsand underlying forces that are shaping this future.
1
Counties with populations of 200,000 or more.
 
 24
Population of Montgomery County
1980 to 2030
578.9752.6869.5990.01,075.01,145.0198019902000201020202030
Source:
Metropolitan Washington COG Round 7.1 Forecast
thousands
 
Rapid expansion followed bysustained, slower growth
Population growth peaked in the 1980s,then surged again in the late 1990s.During the first half of this decade, theCounty added roughly 69,000 people—an8 percent increase in just five years. Acombination of record birth levels and aninflux of new residents drove the mostrecent population boom.Most new residents (60%) come fromoutside the Washington area.Montgomery County serves as a“gateway” to both Maryland and theUnited States – when people move toMaryland, more of them move to MontgomeryCounty than to any other county, by a widemargin.Between 2000 and 2005, births exceededdeaths by 38,000 individuals. Over the sameperiod, nearly 25,000 more people movedinto the County than moved out; foreignimmigration accounted for nearly 90 percentof this net population gain. By 2005, one infive residents—181,000 people—was new toMontgomery County, having moved in withinthe past five years.The immigration of new residents is replacingout migrating residents. Between April 2000 andJuly 2006, the County saw an increase inpopulation of 62,627 from foreign immigrationwhile 50,872 residents moved from MontgomeryCounty to other places in the United States.Within Maryland, the most frequent location towhich Montgomery County residents move isFrederick County, followed by Howard County.The past high rates of growth probably will not beseen again. Montgomery County has entered aphase of slower growth typical of larger, moredeveloped counties and the supply ofundeveloped land has dwindled. The County is approaching
buildout 
 – especially
 
for
Components of Population Change
Montgomery County, Maryland
April, 2000 to July, 2006
Natural Increase 49,076
Births 83,692Deaths -34,616
Net Migration 11,755
Net international migration 62,627Net internal migration -50,872
Residual Change -2,865 Total Population Change 57,966
 
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau
 
Population % Change by Decade
Montgomery County1980 to 2030
30%14%14%9%7%1980 to19901990 to20002000 to20102010 to20202020 to2030
Source:
Metropolitan
 
Washington COG Round 7.1 Forecast
 
 25
At-Place Employment Growth
Montgomery County1975 to 2007
220.3280.9349.3414.4414.1474.3518.01975198019851990199520002007
Source:
Metropolitan Washington COG Round 7.1 Forecast
thousands
Projected Growth
2000 to 2030
01002003004005006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,300
2000200520102015202020252030
Source:
Metropolitan Washington COG Round 7.1 Forecast
       t        h      o      u      s      a      n        d      s
PopulationHouseholdsEmployment
single family suburban houses, 72% ofour future housing will be multi-familyunits, many of which will be infill indeveloped areas.Population growth began tapering offin the middle of this decade, and isexpected to slow to about 7 percentper decade—about half the pace ofrecent years.With an estimated 2007 population of958,000, Montgomery County willreach the 1-million residents markaround 2010. As of January, 2007,there were an estimated 355,700housing units and 518,000 jobs in theCounty. Though the rate of growth willnaturally moderate, the County retainssignificant planned additional job,housing and population capacity through2030.The latest Washington Council ofGovernments (COG) CooperativeForecast envisions that between 2005and 2030, Montgomery County will add207,000 people, 94,300 households, and170,000 jobs—roughly 23 new people, 10new households, and 19 new jobs per dayfor 25 years.
Emergence as a major job center
By any measure, Montgomery County’seconomy has been very healthy for thepast three decades, adding nearly300,000 jobs since 1975. As a regionalemployment center in the Washington,D.C. area, Montgomery County provides jobs to the majority of its residents with 60percent of the employed residents livingand working here in 2005. The labor forceincreasingly reflects the County’s changing demographic profile, becoming significantlymore diverse in terms of age, ethnicity, educational attainment and earning power.

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