Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BUY Alam Sutera Realty
Suburban living with best access to
Initiating coverage Jakarta convenience
Analyst We initiate coverage on Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI) with a BUY
Rahmi Marina
rmarina@kimeng.co.id
recommendation. Due to the improved surrounding facilities, the
(62 21) 2557 1128 uptrends of sales volume and pricing are projected to continue in 2011. At
our TP of Rp385/share, ASRI will trade at a 35%‐discount to its estimated
NAV (14.7x 2011F PER) and 30% above current share price.
Price (Rp) Rp295
Target (Rp) Rp385 Mortgage‐driven demand supports volume growth: Low interest
IDX Index 3702
rates, accompanied by flourishing mortgages, have been the main
driver for rising property demand, especially in the landed residential
sector. We expect the take‐up area (20ha/annum) to provide a stable
Historical Chart earnings flow to the company, despite the low recurring income.
(Rp)
350 Volume (mil. shares) Close
(Million shares)
1,000.0
300
900.0
800.0
Better access unlocks opportunity for higher selling price: Despite its
250
700.0
600.0 slow progress, the Serpong–Cengkareng toll road will likely be open in
500.0
200 400.0 2Q12. As most of its resident commutes to metropolitan Jakarta, this
300.0
150 200.0
100.0
alternative road will further increase ASRI’s appeal compared to
100
25-Nov-09 19-Jan-10 8-Mar-10 26-Apr-10 14-Jun-10 30-Jul-10 24-Sep-10 10-Nov-10
0.0
nearby peers and should translate into higher marketing sales. The
Serpong–Balaraja toll road that is still in the land‐clearing process will
Performance 1m 3m 6m also provide alternative access to ASRI’s site in Pasar Kemis upon its
Absolute (%) 15.7 53.6 112.2
projected completion in 2014.
Relative (%) 14.1 35.7 65.0
Risk to our valuation: The lack of large‐scale infrastructure projects in
Stock Information greater Jakarta in the near future and delays in current ones could halt
Ticker code ASRI land price increase. High inflation, with its subsequent effect on
Market cap (US$m) 588 economic growth and interest rates, could also undermine the
52‐week high (Rp) 320 property business.
52‐week low (Rp) 102
Shares issued (m) 17,863
6m avg d.vol (US$m) 2.7
Free float (%) 51.2 Year End Dec 31 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F
INDONESIA
SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Alam Sutera Realty 26 November 2010
Mortgage‐driven demand supports volume growth
Indonesia’s property market is performing well, buoyed by a strong domestic
economy. The projected CAGR of 1.7% for the urban population in the next five
years and rising GDP‐per‐capita are several drivers that support solid property
demand. Mild inflation has kept the interest rate at 6.5% since August 2009,
which has further pushed down the mortgage rate.
Figure 1: Banking credit disbursement to national property
Housing loans
represent 58.8% of
total property
lending.
Source: Bank Indonesia
Clearly, the lower mortgage rate has given a greater impetus for people to apply
for the loan facility. This is shown by a shift in the home buyers’ and real‐estate
investors’ preferred mode of funding their purchase. In 3Q10, mortgages
constituted ~73% of the payment scheme, compared to ~67% in 3Q09. We
believe the trend will be positive for the upcoming opening of the Pasar Kemis
site (further west in the Serpong area), which targets the middle‐low income
consumers.
Figure 2: Residential property financing
The trend is consistent (%) 9M09 FY09 3M10 6M10 9M10
with the decline in Mortgage 67.2 72.3 74.0 75.2 73.0
mortgage rate Cash installment 16.7 19.0 18.1 17.7 17.8
Other 16.1 8.7 7.9 7.1 9.2
Source: Bank Indonesia
Core competency in residential
Established in 1994, Alam Sutera (ASRI)’s main site is located in Serpong, 15km
away from West Jakarta. The company has developed more than 24 clusters in
the area with a green‐living concept. Each cluster covers 8ha‐23ha of land that
can accommodate 200‐300 houses. In early November, ASRI offered 40 housing
units and 13 parcels of land as an extension of the Sutra Jelita cluster. To date,
the company managed to sell 38 housing units and four parcels of land. Following
this success, ASRI launched another cluster extension in late November.
2
Alam Sutera Realty 26 November 2010
Figure 3: ASRI landbank
Source: Company data
Through the development license covering over 1,100ha in Serpong, ASRI has
acquired ~800ha of land and sold ~450ha; there is still an undeveloped landbank
of ~349ha in the area. Assuming that ASRI will be following its plan of selling
~20ha of land annually (without acquiring additional land in the area), the
Serpong landbank will last for another 18 years.
Due to the limited landbank, ASRI‘s strategy is to offer only limited land sales of
20ha/annum. This will enable it to obtain maximum benefits from the projected
increase in land price. We assume a land price increase of 20% in 2011F, which is
conservative, compared to ASRI’s historical performance over the last two years.
During this period, the selling prices of the residential and commercial sectors
increased at the CAGRs of 59% and 61%, respectively.
Figure 4: Land Price & Marketing Sales 2007‐2009
2007 2008 2009 1H10
Land Price (Rp'000/sqm)
Residential 1,300 2,500 3,300 3,800
Commercial 1,700 3,000 4,400 6,000
Marketing Sales (Rp b) 589 492 1,023 1,018
Source: Company data
The next growth focus for ASRI will be the landbank (~589ha) in Pasar Kemis,
which the company had acquired recently. It is located 11km to the west of ASRI
Serpong. The company is still looking for opportunities to gradually expand the
area up to 1,100ha, for which it has already gotten a development license.
According to the management, the total acquired land has reached ~700ha as of
November, and the license can be further extended up to 1,300ha.
Although the target market for the Pasar Kemis site is the middle‐low income
customers, ASRI is likely to develop the site with the same concept that is usually
3
Alam Sutera Realty 26 November 2010
provided for the middle and high income classes. This, we believe, will be a good
selling point for the developer. The first stage of the Pasar Kemis township is
expected to be launched in mid‐2011.
A mix of pre‐sales method and strong internal financing
Of the undeveloped landbank (~349ha) in Serpong, 70% has been allocated for
commercial purposes and the remaining 30% for housing. A bigger portion of
sales for commercial purposes, as compared to housing sales, will provide ASRI
with a higher margin of nearly 10%: Although total costs for both types of
developments are flat at Rp1.1m/sqm, the selling price of the commercial
development is higher than that of the residential.
Figure 5: Future plan
20‐storey apartment building (2 of 6) Groundbreaking in 2010
20‐storey office tower Groundbreaking in 2010
Mall Alam Sutera Completed in late 2011
BCA main branch office Open in mid 2011
Four‐star hotel Groundbreaking in 4Q11
Binus University Open in mid 2013
Source: Company data
ASRI has set aside capex of Rp500b for 2011 to complete the development of
Mall Alam Sutera (Rp250b) that sits on a landbank of 8ha, build an office tower
(Rp120b) and other infrastructures (Rp130b). With a gross floor area of
100,000sqm, an average monthly rental fee of Rp110,000/sqm and an occupancy
rate of 60%, Mall Alam Sutera should add Rp80b to ASRI’s recurring income upon
full operation. The conservative price assumption is based on the relatively
unchanged supply in leased and strata‐title retail outlets in Banten (Tangerang,
Serpong and Cilegon).
4
Alam Sutera Realty 26 November 2010
Figure 6: Commercial property in Banten
Banten 2009 2010
Tangerang, Cilegon, Serang Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Shopping Centre (Retail)
Rent
Stocks (sqm) 215,675 226,175 226,175 226,175 226,175 226,175 226,175
Occupancy rates/Lease (%) 91.57 90.41 91.65 91.96 92.45 92.84 93.28
Rental rates (Rp/sqm/month) 356,517 372,236 338,649 371,102 370,344 370,032 371,671
Sales
Stocks (sqm) 524,670 524,670 524,670 524,670 524,670 524,670 524,670
Selling rates (%) 78.69 78.81 78.82 78.88 78.96 79.01 79.14
Selling prices (Rp/sqm) 34,820,004 34,878,565 34,878,565 34,878,565 35,333,895 35,734,913 35,901,511
Hotels (3,4,5 stars)
Stocks (room) 1,798 1,948 1,948 1,948 2,104 2,104 2,104
Occupancy rates/Lease (%) 53.11 54.21 56.66 58.54 56.50 61.14 63.82
Room rates (Rp/night) 742,219 710,365 704,157 706,711 671,538 669,263 697,914
Industrial Estates
Stocks (ha) 5,388 5,388 5,388 5,388 5,388 5,388 5,388
Selling rates (%) 69.75 69.83 69.96 70.06 70.09 70.12 70.15
Selling prices (Rp/sqm) 630,972 618,676 613,369 610,834 607,592 606,560 615,704
Source: Bank Indonesia
Initial capex for developing the infrastructure at Pasar Kemis are estimated at
Rp100b‐200b. The investment is to be financed internally. Supported by retained
earnings estimated at ~74%, ASRI is sitting on a huge pile of cash. As with
Serpong, pre‐selling will be used as part of its financing source for the residential
projects in Pasar Kemis.
Better access unlocks opportunity for higher selling price
Most of ASRI’s residents commute to Jakarta on daily basis. Therefore, the
completion of three toll road strips in 2Q12 will give alternative access and a
shortened travel time to ASRI’s main site in Serpong compared to nearby peers.
This advantage is significant as the commute to Jakarta during rush hour is
fraught with severe traffic problems. ASRI will also be able to attract business to
open their branches at its site. These toll strips are the Kebon Jeruk‐Ulujami
(7km) – the final stage of Jakarta Outer Ring Road (JORR) I and the complete
Serpong–Kunciran–Cengkareng strips (26.4km) – the west part of what will be
JORR II. The latter will place ASRI at a strategic intersection with the Jakarta–
Merak toll road.
5
Alam Sutera Realty 26 November 2010
Figure 7: Inbound traffic to Jakarta
Development of
alternative roads
should relieve the
highly‐congested
main road.
Source: SITRAMP 2004
Figure 8: ASRI location
The Kebon Jeruk–
Ulujami strip will
mark the completion
of JORR 1 whose
construction began
in 1990.
Source: Company data
Closer access to the main road will drive higher marketing sales, which is
evidenced by ASRI’s 2H09 financial performance. We saw a steep increase in
marketing sales upon the opening of a new toll exit at Serpong. The uptrend
continued in 1H10 with the opening of the Kebon Jerunk–Penjaringan toll road
(9.7km) on February 2010.
6
Alam Sutera Realty 26 November 2010
Figure 9: Marketing sales
Marketing Sales (Rp m) 2009 2010
January 9,995 163,122
February 15,612 142,555
March 92,748 152,655
April 35,157 158,442
May 40,638 180,026
June 80,229 221,273
July 91,300 163,941
August 111,014 119,180
September 173,119 76,562
October 185,361
November 68,264
December 119,385
Source: Company data
Upon its expected completion in 2014, the Serpong–Balaraja toll road will also
benefit ASRI. It will serve as an alternative route to reach ASRI’s landbank in
Pasar Kemis, which already has better access to the Jakarta‐Merak toll road than
Ciputra Development’s Citra Raya.
Valuation
Within two years, after its IPO in December 2007, ASRI’s marketing sales
doubled to Rp1t in 2009. We believe that ASRI’s marketing sales will be ahead
of the management’s guidance. Its recent upgrade of its 2010 marketing sales
target to Rp1.5t is in line with our positive view.
This positive trend in marketing sales should translate to a share price increase.
We derive our Rp385 target price from NAV at a 35%‐discount. It implies upside
potential of 30% from current market price and will put the valuation of ASRI at
14.7x 2011F PER.
7
Alam Sutera Realty 26 November 2010
Figure 10: Valuation
Undeveloped Price Market value
Landbank area (sqm) Utilization (Rp'000/sqm) (Rp bn)
Serpong
Residential 850,000 60% 4,045 2,063
Commercial 2,440,000 60% 5,249 7,685
Pasar Kemis 5,890,000 60% 99 350
Cianjur 790,000 60% 60 29
Cibitung 1,330,000 60% 364 291
Tanjung Pinang 750,000 60% 40 18
10,435
Gross Floor Area Monthly rent
Recurring income (sqm) (Rp'000/sqm)
Mall 100,000 0% 110 0
Forever Bliss 1 18,000 31% 58 4
Forever Bliss 2 50,000 31% 78 14
Office 0
18
Total market value 10,453
Less: Debt 429
Add: Cash 541
Net Asset Value 10,565
NAV/share 591
Discount rate 35%
Target Price 384
Source: Company data, KE estimates
Risks to our valuation
A lack of large‐scale infrastructure projects in greater Jakarta in the near future
and delays in current ones could halt land price increase. High inflation, with its
consequent effect on economic growth and interest rates, could also undermine
the property business.
8
Alam Sutera Realty 26 November 2010
Profit and loss Cash flow
YE Dec (Rp b) 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F YE Dec (Rp b) 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F
Sales 435 404 858 1,314 1,535 Operating cash flow 172 192 991 528 629
Cost of goods sold 324 242 463 668 733 Net Profit 59 94 281 468 566
Gross Profit 111 162 396 646 802 Depreciation & amortisation 2 2 11 20 27
Operating expenses 56 51 90 136 186 Change in working capital 48 (65) (7) 0 0
Operating Profit 55 111 306 510 616 Others 64 161 706 41 36
Net interest 5 1 10 16 21 Investment cash flow (200) (223) (430) (460) (403)
Interest income 23 27 25 26 28 Net capex (23) (18) (350) (330) (300)
Interest expense (18) (26) (15) (10) (7) Chg in other non curr assets (190) (212) (23) (127) (98)
Pretax income 79 118 331 542 651 Others 13 7 (57) (2) (5)
Income taxes 21 24 49 73 86 Cash flow after invt. (27) (31) 562 68 226
Minority Interest (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Financing cash flow (11) 145 (186) (334) (223)
Net profit 59 94 281 468 566 Change in equity 0 81 0 0 0
EBITDA 57 112 317 530 643 Cash dividend paid 0 (2) (56) (94) (113)
EPS 3 5 16 26 32 Net change in debt (9) 80 (135) (240) (110)
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates Change in other LT liab. (2) (13) 5 0 0
Net cash flow (39) 115 375 (265) 3
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
Balance sheet Key ratios
YE Dec (Rp b) 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F YE Dec 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F
Total assets 3,057 3,560 4,456 4,635 5,023 Growth (% y/y)
Current assets 1,919 2,433 2,829 2,703 2,843 Sales 41.4 (7.3) 112.6 53.1 16.8
Cash & ST Investment 323 431 862 600 607 OP 75.7 100.1 176.5 66.9 20.6
Inventories 1,533 1,842 1,779 1,911 2,034 EBITDA 75.4 97.4 182.0 67.3 21.3
Account receivable 15 25 23 23 23 NP 189.9 59.9 199.3 66.3 20.9
Others 48 135 164 169 178 EPS 137.3 58.8 188.9 66.3 20.9
Non current assets 1,138 1,127 1,626 1,932 2,180 Profitability (%)
Net land for developt 1,101 1,004 1,090 1,085 1,060 Gross margin 25.5 40.1 46.1 49.2 52.2
Others 37 124 536 847 1,120 Operating margin 12.7 27.4 35.6 38.8 40.1
Total liabilities 1,294 1,625 2,295 2,100 2,035 EBITDA margin 13.1 27.8 36.9 40.3 41.9
Current liabilities 100 59 86 86 86 Net Profit margin 13.5 23.3 32.8 35.6 36.8
Account payable 53 19 26 26 26 ROA 1.9 2.6 6.3 10.1 11.3
ST borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 ROE 3.4 4.9 13.1 18.5 19.0
Others 48 40 60 60 60 Stability
Long‐term liabilities 1,194 1,566 2,210 2,015 1,950 Gross debt/equity (%) 41.2 41.7 31.1 17.0 10.7
Long‐term debts 724 804 669 429 319 Net debt/equity (%) 22.8 19.4 Net cash Net cash Net cash
Others 470 762 1,541 1,586 1,631 Int. coverage (x) 3.2 4.3 20.9 54.6 89.1
Minority interest 8 8 8 8 8 Current ratio (x) 19.1 41.0 33.0 31.5 33.2
Shareholder's equity 1,755 1,927 2,153 2,527 2,979 Quick ratio (x) 3.8 10.0 12.3 9.2 9.4
Paid‐in capital 1,713 1,786 1,786 1,786 1,786 Gross debt (Rp b) 724 804 669 429 319
Reserve 76 167 392 767 1,219 Net debt (Rp b) 401 373 Net cash Net cash Net cash
Others (34) (26) (26) (26) (26) Per share data (Rp)
EPS 3 5 16 26 32
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
CFPS 10 11 56 30 35
BVPS 102 112 121 141 167
SPS 25 23 48 74 86
EBITDA/share 3 7 18 30 36
DPS 1 1 4 7 9
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
9
ANALYSTS’ COVERAGE / RESEARCH OFFICES
SINGAPORE MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES
Stephanie WONG Head of Research YEW Chee Yoon Head of Research Ricardo PUIG Head of Research
Regional Head of Institutional Research +603 2141 1555 cheeyoon@kimengkl.com +63 2 849 8835 ricardo_puig@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1451 swong@kimeng.com Strategy Strategy
Strategy Banks Property
Small & Mid Caps Telcos Telcos
Gregory YAP Property Laura DY‐LIACCO
+65 6432 1450 gyap@kimeng.com Conglomerates & others +63 2 849 8840 laura_dyliacco@atr.com.ph
Conglomerates LIEW Mee Kien Utilities
Technology & Manufacturing +603 2141 1555 meekien@kimengkl.com Conglomerates
Transport & Telcos Gaming Lovell SARREAL
Rohan SUPPIAH Media +63 2 849 8841 lovell_sarreal@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1455 rohan@kimeng.com Power Consumer
Airlines Construction Media
Marine & Offshore Research Team Kenneth NERECINA
Pauline LEE +603 2141 1555 +63 2 849 8839 kenneth_nerecina@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1453 paulinelee@kimeng.com Food & Beverage Conglomerates
Bank & Finance Manufacturing Cement
Consumer Plantations Ports/ Logistics
Retail Tobacco Katherine TAN
Wilson LIEW Technology +63 2 849 8843 kat_tan@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1454 wilsonliew@kimeng.com Banks
Hotel & Resort INDONESIA Construction
Property & Construction Katarina SETIAWAN Head of Research
Anni KUM +6221 2557 1125 ksetiawan@kimeng.co.id REGIONAL
+65 6432 1470 annikum@kimeng.com Consumer Luz LORENZO Economist
Industrials Infra +63 2 849 8836 luz_lorenzo@atr.com.ph
REITs Shipping Economics
James KOH Strategy
+65 6432 1431 jameskoh@kimeng.com Telcos ONG Seng Yeow
Infrastructure Others +65 6432 1832 ongsengyeow@kimeng.com
Resources Ricardo SILAEN Regional Products & Planning
Eric ONG +6221 2557 1126 rsilaen@kimeng.co.id
+65 6432 1857 ericong@kimeng.com Auto
Marine & Offshore Energy TAIWAN
David LOOMIS Heavy Equipment Gary Chia
+65 6432 1417 dloomis@kimeng.com Property Head of Greater China Research
Special Situations Resources +886 2 3518 7900 gary.chia@yuanta.com
Rahmi MARINA Boris Markovich
HONG KONG / CHINA +6221 2557 1128 rmarina@kimeng.co.id COO, Greater China Research
Edward FUNG Head of Research Banking +852 3969 9518 boris.markovic@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0632 edwardfung@kimeng.com.hk Lucky ARIESANDI, CFA John Brebeck, CFA
Power +6221 2557 1127 lariesandi@kimeng.co.id Head of Taiwan Strategy
Construction Cement Head of Research, Taiwan
Norman ZHANG Construction +886 2 3518 7906 john.brebeck@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0631 normanzhang@kimeng.com.hk Pharmaceutical George Chang, CFA
Technology Retail Head of Upstream Tech
Mid‐caps Adi N. WICAKSONO +886 2 3518 7907 george.chang@yuanta.com
Ivan CHEUNG +6221 2557 1130 anwicaksono@kimeng.co.id Vincent Chen
+852 2268 0634 ivancheung@kimeng.com.hk Generalist Head of Downstream Tech
Property Arwani PRANADJAYA +886 2 3518 7903 vincent.chen@yuanta.com
Industrial +6221 2557 1129 apranadjaya@kimeng.co.id Dennis Chan – NB Supply Chain
Ivan LI Technical analyst +886 2 3518 7913 dennis.chan@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0641 ivanli@kimeng.com.hk Andrew C Chen – IC Backend
Banking & Finance VIETNAM +886 2 3518 7940 andrew.chen@yuanta.com
TAM Tsz Wang Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen Ellen Chiu – Taiwan Consumer
+852 2268 0636 tamtszwang@kimeng.com.hk +84 838 38 66 36 x 163 tuyen.nguyen@kimeng.com.vn +886 2 3518 7936 ellen.chiu@yuanta.com
Telcos Pharmaceutical Danny Ho – Taiwan Petrochemical
Green Energy Confectionary and Beverage +886 2 3518 7923 danny.ho@yuanta.com
Jacqueline KO Oil and Gas Min Li – Alternative Energy
+852 2268 0633 jacquelineko@kimeng.com.hk Ngo Bich Van +852 3969 9521 min.li@yuanta.com
Consumer Staples +84 838 38 66 36 x 164 van.ngo@kimeng.com.vn May Lin – Taiwan Telecom
Grace DAI Bank +886 2 3518 7942 may.lin@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0640 gracedai@kimeng.com.hk Insurance Tess Wang – Taiwan Financials
Metal Nguyen Quang Duy +886 2 3518 7901 tess.wang@yuanta.com
+84 838 38 66 36 x 162 duy.nguyenquang@kimeng.com.vn
INDIA Shipping
Jigar SHAH Head of Research Seafood
+91 22 6623 2601 jshah@kimeng.com Rubber
Oil & Gas Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep
Transportation +84 838 38 66 36 x 166 diep.trinh@kimeng.com.vn
Anubhav GUPTA Property
+91 22 6623 2605 agupta@kimeng.com Construction
Property
Capital goods THAILAND
Rohit LEDWANI Kanchan KHANIJOU
+91226623 2625 rohit@kimeng.co.in + 662 658 6300 x 4750 kanchan@kimeng.co.th
Banking and Financial services Banks
Nikhil AGARWAL Construction Materials
+91226623 2611 nikhil@kimeng.co.in Nathavut SHIVARUCHIWONG Recommendation definitions
Cement + 662 658 6300 x 4730 nathavut@kimeng.co.th
Metals Property
Our recommendation is based on the
Haripreet BATRA Shipping following expected price
+91226623 2606 haripreet@imeng.co.in
Software performance within 12 months:
Education
Ganesh RAM +15% and above: BUY
+91226623 2607 ganeshram@kimeng.co.in
Telecom ‐15% to +15%: HOLD
Media ‐15% or worse: SELL
10
Alam Sutera Realty 26 November 2010
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLOSURES
AND
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Alam Sutera Realty 26 November 2010
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