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Biometrika i Planiranje Istrazivanja 2010

# Biometrika i Planiranje Istrazivanja 2010

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Biometrika i planiranje istraživanja na životinjama
Miroslav Kapštel: 239-3949e-mail: mkaps@agr.hr

1 UVOD.............................................................................................................................................................................1

1.1

P
ODACI I VARIJABLE
..................................................................................................................................................1

1.2

P
RIKAZ PODATAKA
....................................................................................................................................................3

1.2.1 Grafi
č
ki prikazi.................................................................................................................................................3

1.2.2 Numeri
č
ke metode za opis kvantitativnih podataka..........................................................................................3

1.2.3 Simboli..............................................................................................................................................................3

1.2.4 Aritmeti
č
ka srednja vrijednost:.........................................................................................................................4

1.2.5 Varijanca uzorka:.............................................................................................................................................4

1.2.6 Standardna devijacija uzorka...........................................................................................................................5

1.2.7 Uvodni SAS primjer..........................................................................................................................................5

1.3

Z
AKLJU
Č
CI O POPULACIJAMA NA TEMELJU UZORAKA
................................................................................................6

1.4

S
LU
Č
AJNE VARIJABLE I NJIHOVE RASPODJELE
...........................................................................................................6

1.4.1 Raspodjele vjerojatnosti za diskretne slu
č
ajne varijable..................................................................................

1.4.2 Raspodjele vjerojatnosti za kontinuirane slu
č
ajne varijable............................................................................8

1.5

F
UNKCIJE SLU
Č
AJNE VARIJABLE
..............................................................................................................................14

1.5.1 Neke statistike i njihove raspodjele.................................................................................................................15

1.5.2 Stupnjevi slobode............................................................................................................................................16

1.6

Z
AKLJU
Č
IVANJE O POPULACIJI NA TEMELJU UZORAKA
............................................................................................16

1.7

P
ROCJENA PARAMETARA
.........................................................................................................................................16

1.7.1 Procjena srednje vrijednosti populacije.........................................................................................................17

1.7.2 Procjena varijance u normalnoj populaciji....................................................................................................17

1.8

P
ROVJERA HIPOTEZA
...............................................................................................................................................17

1.8.1 P-vrijednost.....................................................................................................................................................18

1.8.2 Statisti
č
ka i prakti
č
na zna
č
ajnost...................................................................................................................19

1.8.3 Mogu
ć
e greške kod statisti
č
kog zaklju
č
ivanja i snaga provjere.....................................................................19

2 JEDNOSTAVNA LINEARNA REGRESIJA...........................................................................................................21

2.1

U
VOD
......................................................................................................................................................................21

2.2

P
ROCJENA PARAMETARA
Β
0
I
Β
1
...............................................................................................................................23

2.3

O
STATAK I SVOJSTVA OSTATKA
...............................................................................................................................24

2.4

P
ROSJECI I VARIJANCE PROCJENITELJA
....................................................................................................................24

2.5

S
TUDENTOVA
-
PROVJERA I INTERVAL POUZDANOSTI PROCJENE PARAMETARA
......................................................25

2.6

I
NTERVAL POUZDANOSTI ZA
Β
1
................................................................................................................................26

2.7

I
NTERVALI POUZDANOSTI ZAVISNE VARIJABLE
.......................................................................................................26

2.8

Č
LANJENJE UKUPNE VARIJABILNOSTI
................................................................................................................28

2.8.1 Veza izme
đ

2.9

P
ROVJERA HIPOTEZA
-

F
-
PROVJERA
........................................................................................................................30

2.10

OEFICIJENT DETERMINACIJE
(R
2
)........................................................................................................................31

2.11

SAS
PRIMJER ZA JEDNOSTAVNU LINEARNU REGRESIJU
..........................................................................................32

3 KOEFICIJENT KORELACIJE................................................................................................................................34

3.1

P
ROCJENA KOEFICIJENTA KORELACIJE
.....................................................................................................................35

4 VEKTORI I MATRICE.............................................................................................................................................36

4.1

T
IPOVI I SVOJSTVA MATRICA
...................................................................................................................................36

4.1.1 Operacije s matricama i vektorima:...............................................................................................................37

5 JEDNOSTAVNA REGRESIJA U MATRI
Č
NOM PRIKAZU...............................................................................40

6 MULTIPLA REGRESIJA..........................................................................................................................................43

6.1

D
VIJE NEZAVISNE VARIJABLE
..................................................................................................................................43

6.1.1 Raš
č
lanjenje ukupne varijabilnosti i provjera hipoteza.................................................................................45

6.2

P
ARCIJALNE I STUPNJEVITE EKSTRA SUME KVADRATA
............................................................................................46

6.3

SAS
PRIMJER ZA MULTIPLU REGRESIJU
...................................................................................................................47

6.4

RIVOLINIJSKA REGRESIJA DRUGOG STUPNJA
.........................................................................................................48

6.4.1 SAS primjer za kvadratnu regresiju................................................................................................................49

6.5

M
OGU
Ć
E POTEŠKO
Ć
E KOD UPOTREBE REGRESIJE
....................................................................................................50

6.5.1 Analiza ostataka i narušenost pretpostavki modela........................................................................................51

6.5.2 Loša opažanja.................................................................................................................................................52

6.5.3 Multikolinearnost............................................................................................................................................52

6.6

I
ZGRADNJA MODELA I KRITERIJI ZA IZBOR MODELA
.................................................................................................53

7 JEDNOSTRUKA ANALIZA VARIJANCE.............................................................................................................54

7.1

M
ODEL JEDNOSTRUKE ANALIZE VARIJANCE S FIKSNIM UTJECAJIMA
........................................................................55

7.1.1 Raš
č
lanjenje ukupne varijabilnosti na izvore varijabilnosti:.........................................................................56

7.1.2 Postavljanje hipoteza i F-provjera.................................................................................................................57

7.2

U
SPOREDBA SREDNJIH VRIJEDNOSTI POJEDINIH GRUPA
...........................................................................................59

7.2.1 Najmanja zna
č
ajna razlika (LSD)..................................................................................................................59

7.2.2 Tukey provjera (HSD).....................................................................................................................................59

7.3

SAS
PRIMJER JEDNOSTRUKE ANALIZE VARIJANCE S FIKSNIM UTJECAJIMA
..............................................................60

7.4

M
ODEL SA SLU
Č
AJNIM UTJECAJIMA GRUPA
.............................................................................................................61

7.5

I
NTRAKLASNA KORELACIJA
.....................................................................................................................................63

7.6

SAS
PRIMJER JEDNOSTRUKE ANALIZE VARIJANCE SA SLU
Č
AJNIM UTJECAJIMA
.......................................................64

8 NA
Č
ELA PLANIRANJA POKUSA..........................................................................................................................65

8.1

P
OKUSNA JEDINICA I TRETMANI
..............................................................................................................................66

8.2

P
ONAVLJANJA I POKUSNA GREŠKA
..........................................................................................................................66

8.3

P
OTREBAN BROJ PONAVLJANJA
...............................................................................................................................67

9 POTPUNO SLU
Č
AJNI POKUSNI PLAN................................................................................................................68

10 BLOKOVI U ANALIZI VARIJANCE....................................................................................................................70

10.1

S
LU
Č
AJNI BLOK PLAN
(
POTPUNI
)...........................................................................................................................70

10.1.1 Raš
č

10.1.2 Postavljanje hipoteza i F-provjera...............................................................................................................72

10.1.3 SAS primjer za slu
č
ajni blok plan.................................................................................................................73

10.1.4 SAS primjer s više pokusnih jedinica po kombinaciji blok x tretman...........................................................74

11 'CHANGE-OVER' POKUSNI PLANOVI..............................................................................................................77

11.1

J
EDNOSTAVNI
'
CHANGE
-
OVER
'
PLAN
......................................................................................................................77

11.2

'C
HANGE
-
OVER
'
....................................................................................78

11.2.1 SAS primjer za ‘change-over’ plan s utjecajem razdoblja...........................................................................79

11.3

L
...............................................................................................................................................80

11.3.1 SAS primjer za latinski kvadrat.....................................................................................................................82

11.4

C
HANGE OVER PLAN POSTAVLJEN KAO VIŠE LATINSKIH KVADRATA
......................................................................84

12 FAKTORIJALNI POKUS........................................................................................................................................85

12.1

SAS
PRIMJER ZA FAKTORIJALNI POKUS
.................................................................................................................88

13 HIJERARHIJSKI POKUSNI PLANOVI...............................................................................................................90

13.1

SAS
PRIMJER ZA HIJERARHIJSKI PLAN
...................................................................................................................92

14 POKUSNI PLANOVI SA KAVEZIMA I PREGONIMA.....................................................................................94

15 DVOSTRUKI BLOKOVI.........................................................................................................................................96

16 SPLIT PLOT POKUSNI PLAN.............................................................................................................................100

16.1

F
AKTOR
A

(
GLAVNI FAKTOR
)
KAO SLU
Č
AJNI BLOK PLAN
....................................................................................100

16.1.1 SAS Primjer: Split plot plan, glavne jedinice kao slu
č
ajni blokovi............................................................101

16.2

F
AKTOR
A

(
GLAVNI FAKTOR
)
KAO POTPUNO SLU
Č
AJNI PLAN
..............................................................................103

16.2.1 SAS primjer: Glavne jedinice u potpuno slu
č
ajnom planu.........................................................................104

17 ANALIZA KOVARIJANCE..................................................................................................................................106

17.1

P
OTPUNO SLU
Č
AJNI POKUSNI PLAN SA KOVARIJABLOM
.......................................................................................106

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