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Thayer Vietnam Communist Party 14th Plenum Extended

Thayer Vietnam Communist Party 14th Plenum Extended

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Published by Carlyle Alan Thayer
An analysis of the recently held 14th plenary meeting of the Vietnam Communist Party's Central Committee and why it was extended by one day.
An analysis of the recently held 14th plenary meeting of the Vietnam Communist Party's Central Committee and why it was extended by one day.

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Categories:Types, Research, History
Published by: Carlyle Alan Thayer on Dec 26, 2010
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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01/07/2011

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Background Briefing:Vietnam: 14the PlenumExtended by a DayCarlyle A. ThayerDecember 21, 23, 29 and 30,2010
[client
 
name
 
deleted]
 
December
 
21:
 
So,
 
the
 
plenum
 
was
 
supposed
 
to
 
have
 
ended
 
yesterday,
 
but
 
there
 
was
 
no
 
word
 
about
 
it
 
on
 
the
 
7pm
 
news
 
last
 
night
 
and
 
there’s
 
zip
 
in
 
the
 
papers
 
today.
 
Don’t
 
they
 
usually
 
trumpet
 
the
 
successful
 
closing
 
of 
 
such
 
meetings?
 
It’s
 
been
 
an
 
interesting
 
week
 
in
 
terms
 
of 
 
leadership
 
rumours.
 
From
 
what
 
I
 
can
 
tell
 
the
 
PB
 
put
 
forward
 
a
 
list
 
and
 
the
 
CC
 
had
 
(or
 
continues
 
to
 
have)
 
a
 
serious
 
discussion
 
about
 
it.
 
ANSWER:
 
Birds
 
of 
 
a
 
feather…
 
I
 
too
 
have
 
tried
 
to
 
squeeze
 
the
 
electronic
 
media
 
for
 
any
 
outcome
 
from
 
the
 
plenum
 
and
 
turned
 
up
 
empty.
 
When
 
I
 
was
 
transiting
 
Singapore
 
after
 
leaving
 
Hanoi
 
for
 
Canberra,
 
I
 
was
 
contacted
 
by
 
a
 
newswire
 
with
 
what
 
they
 
claimed
 
was
 
an
 
exclusive
 
from
 
a
 
highly
 
reliable
 
source
 
on
 
leadership
 
approvals
 
and
 
changes
 
at
 
the
 
14
th
 
plenum
 
(4
 
days
 
before
 
the
 
plenum
 
ended).
 
I
 
gave
 
a
 
quick
 
comment.
 
On
 
the
 
following
 
day
 
the
 
BBC
 
contacted
 
me
 
with
 
greater
 
detail
 
and
 
I
 
gave
 
a
 
long
 
interview
 
which
 
is
 
being
 
broadcast
 
in
 
two
 
parts
 
(part
 
one
 
has
 
appeared).
 
Even
 
if 
 
the
 
Central
 
Committee
 
reached
 
agreement
 
it
 
is
 
only
 
a
 
recommendation
 
to
 
the
 
delegates.
 
Then
 
after
 
the
 
congress,
 
it
 
is
 
up
 
to
 
the
 
new
 
Central
 
Committee
 
to
 
approve
 
the
 
government
 
leadership
 
line
 
up
 
including
 
the
 
prime
 
minister’s
 
nominations
 
for
 
Cabinet.
 
Then
 
the
 
Prime
 
Minister
 
has
 
to
 
get
 
approval
 
from
 
the
 
new
 
deputies
 
to
 
the
 
National
 
Assembly.
 
At
 
the
 
last
 
Congress
 
all
 
of 
 
the
 
recommendations
 
by
 
the
 
outgoing
 
Central
 
Committee
 
were
 
eventually
 
approved.
 
The
 
Prime
 
Minister
 
has
 
only
 
failed
 
to
 
get
 
two
 
of 
 
his
 
nominees
 
approved,
 
the
 
first
 
was
 
the
 
Minister
 
of 
 
Public
 
Security
 
and
 
the
 
second
 
was
 
the
 
Governor
 
of 
 
the
 
State
 
Bank
 
of 
 
Vietnam.
 
So
 
far
 
what
 
has
 
leaked
 
out
 
hasn’t
 
been
 
specific
 
on
 
whether
 
party
 
delegates
 
will
 
be
 
given
 
a
 
choice
 
of 
 
candidates
 
for
 
the
 
top
 
positions.
 
In
 
other
 
words
 
will
 
Truong
 
Tan
 
Sang
 
and
 
Nguyen
 
Phu
 
Trong
 
find
 
they
 
will
 
have
 
to
 
contest
 
their
 
nominations?
 
And
 
who
 
will
 
stand
 
against
 
them?
 
It
 
get
 
more
 
and
 
more
 
curious…
 
[client
 
name
 
deleted]
 
December
 
21:
 
I
 
saw
 
the
 
Dow
 
Jones
 
and
 
Asahi
 
Shimbun
 
stories
 
last
 
week.
 
From
 
what
 
I
 
gather,
 
they
 
were
 
a
 
bit
 
premature.
 
(DJ
 
said
 
the
 
CC
 
had
 
“endorsed”
 
the
 
list,
 
which
 
hasn’t
 
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
 
2
happened
 
as
 
far
 
as
 
I
 
can
 
tell.)
 
There
 
has
 
been
 
increasing
 
chatter
 
in
 
recent
 
days
 
that
 
the
 
CC
 
discussion
 
has
 
been
 
serious
 
and
 
that
 
there
 
may
 
be
 
doubts
 
over
 
the
 
suggestion
 
constellation.
 
I
 
hear
 
age
 
is
 
a
 
factor
 
(as
 
always,
 
perhaps)
 
and
 
Vinashin
 
may
 
still
 
be
 
in
 
play.
 
I
 
don’t
 
know
 
much
 
more
 
at
 
this
 
point,
 
but
 
not
 
having
 
any
 
official
 
news
 
after
 
the
 
plenum
 
was
 
supposed
 
to
 
have
 
ended
 
seems
 
to
 
strongly
 
suggest
 
that
 
things
 
are
 
still
 
in
 
a
 
serious
 
state
 
of 
 
flux.
 
Apparently
 
they
 
are
 
holding
 
an
 
extra
 
day
 
of 
 
meetings.
 
Is
 
there
 
precedent
 
for
 
this?
 
ANSWER:
 
Yes,
 
they
 
even
 
have
 
held
 
meetings
 
up
 
to
 
the
 
11
th
 
hour,
 
especially
 
at
 
the
 
9
th
 
Congress.
 
Either
 
the
 
plenum
 
was
 
extended
 
or
 
the
 
Central
 
Committee
 
passed
 
outstanding
 
issues
 
to
 
the
 
Politburo/expanded
 
Politburo
 
(
mo
 
rong
 
is
 
the
 
expression)
 
for
 
resolution.
 
An
 
expanded
 
meeting
 
would
 
include
 
Politburo
 
members
 
and
 
additional
 
members
 
from
 
the
 
Central
 
Committee
 
(or
 
elsewhere
 
it
 
that
 
is
 
what
 
was
 
decided).
 
This
 
extra
 
day
 
does
 
not
 
preclude
 
even
 
more
 
meetings
 
or
 
even
 
another
 
Central
 
Committee
 
plenum.
 
[client
 
name
 
deleted]
 
December
 
21:
 
I
 
heard
 
from
 
one
 
source
 
it
 
was
 
the
 
full
 
CC
 
meeting
 
again
 
today.
 
Broadly
 
speaking,
 
what
 
would
 
you
 
say
 
it
 
means?
 
ANSWER:
 
The
 
original
 
14
th
 
plenum
 
was
 
about
 
par
 
for
 
the
 
course
 
in
 
length.
 
An
 
extended
 
session
 
may
 
mean
 
that
 
an
 
attempt
 
is
 
being
 
made
 
to
 
resolve
 
those
 
issues
 
on
 
which
 
consensus
 
is
 
lacking
 
now
 
rather
 
than
 
prolong
 
the
 
process
 
up
 
to
 
the
 
congress.
 
The
 
congress
 
is
 
supposed
 
to
 
be
 
a
 
short
 
4
5
 
day
 
set
 
piece
 
affair
 
that
 
demonstrates
 
party
 
unity
 
(the
 
last
 
congress
 
went
 
for
 
8
 
days).
 
In
 
the
 
past
 
it
 
was
 
not
 
unheard
 
of 
 
for
 
the
 
congress
 
dates
 
to
 
be
 
shifted
 
as
 
well.
 
You
 
are
 
the
 
only
 
person
 
to
 
suggest
 
what
 
the
 
issues
 
in
 
question
 
might
 
be
 
and
 
they
 
seem
 
reasonable
 
to
 
me.
 
I
 
would
 
also
 
speculate
 
that
 
the
 
leakage
 
of 
 
who
 
has
 
been
 
“approved”
 
for
 
top
 
positions
 
may
 
also
 
be
 
an
 
issue.
 
As
 
I
 
noted
 
earlier,
 
the
 
outgoing
 
Central
 
Committee
 
passes
 
its
 
recommendations/nominations
 
to
 
the
 
Congress
 
for
 
consideration
 
by
 
party
 
delegates.
 
They
 
will
 
elect
 
the
 
new
 
Central
 
Committee.
 
It
 
is
 
the
 
new
 
Central
 
Committee
 
that
 
will
 
elect
 
the
 
Politburo
 
and
 
party
 
Secretary
 
General
 
and
 
make
 
clear
 
which
 
Politburo
 
members
 
will
 
hold
 
state
 
posts
 
(president,
 
prime
 
minister,
 
chair
 
of 
 
the
 
National
 
Assembly).
 
Party
 
delegates
 
in
 
January
 
2011
 
may
 
once
 
again
 
demand
 
a
 
greater
 
say
 
in
 
the
 
process
 
such
 
as
 
another
 
straw
 
poll
 
with
 
a
 
choice
 
of 
 
2
 
or
 
3
 
candidates
 
rather
 
than
 
 just
 
one.
 
[client
 
name
 
deleted]
 
December
 
23:
 
No
 
doubt
 
you’ve
 
seen
 
the
 
official
 
statements
 
on
 
the
 
14
th
 
plenum.
 
Have
 
you
 
gleaned
 
or
 
heard
 
anything
 
interesting?
 
ANSWER:
 
Yes
 
I
 
have
 
read
 
the
 
materials
 
released
 
after
 
the
 
14
th
 
plenum.
 
It
 
is
 
typical
 
 –
 
a
 
summary
 
of 
 
the
 
closing
 
speech
 
(not
 
sure
 
I
 
saw
 
the
 
opening
 
speech),
 
and
 
a
 
summary
 
of 
 
the
 
work
 
completed.
 
Sometimes
 
extracts
 
from
 
the
 
resolution
 
are
 
released.
 
Nothing
 
earth
 
shattering
 
has
 
emerged.
 
 
3
The
 
Congress
 
dates
 
were
 
released
 
and
 
it
 
looks
 
like
 
an
 
8
day
 
congress.
 
From
 
the
 
4
th
 
congress
 
(1976)
 
to
 
the
 
9
th
 
congress
 
(1996),
 
congresses
 
averaged
 
4
5
 
days.
 
The
 
tenth
 
congress
 
was
 
8
 
days.
 
This
 
suggests
 
that
 
congresses,
 
while
 
designed
 
as
 
set
 
piece
 
affairs,
 
and
 
now
 
more
 
engaged
 
in
 
leadership
 
selection
 
and
 
policy
making
 
which
 
takes
 
more
 
time.
 
The
 
Central
 
Committee
 
ritualistically
 
took
 
note
 
of 
 
the
 
input
 
from
 
various
 
bodies,
 
mass
 
organizations
 
and
 
society.
 
Now
 
the
 
draft
 
policy
 
documents
 
can
 
be
 
polished
 
and
 
‘word
 
smithed’
 
for
 
presentation
 
to
 
the
 
congress.
 
There
 
is
 
no
 
indication
 
yet
 
what
 
major
 
changes
 
if 
 
any
 
were
 
made.
 
But
 
the
 
news
 
media
 
suggest
 
a
 
higher
 
profile
 
for
 
natural
 
disasters
 
and
 
climate
 
change.
 
The
 
Central
 
Committee
 
unanimously
 
approved
 
the
 
nominees
 
for
 
the
 
new
 
Central
 
Committee.
 
But
 
since
 
more
 
are
 
nominated
 
than
 
the
 
targeted
 
size
 
of 
 
the
 
new
 
Central
 
Committee,
 
all
 
factions
 
can
 
be
 
satisfied
 
for
 
the
 
moment.
 
Left
 
unstated
 
was
 
what
 
other
 
leadership
 
recommendations
 
were
 
made.
 
I
 
should
 
point
 
out
 
that
 
although
 
delegates
 
may
 
demand
 
a
 
choice,
 
there
 
is
 
no
 
mechanism
 
to
 
force
 
an
 
individual
 
to
 
run.
 
Nguyen
 
Van
 
An
 
withdrew
 
last
 
congress
 
as
 
a
 
nominee
 
for
 
party
 
secretary
 
general
 
once
 
the
 
feelings
 
of 
 
delegates
 
were
 
known
 
in
 
a
 
straw
 
poll.
 
I
 
also
 
note
 
that
 
12
 
international
 
organizations
 
based
 
in
 
Hanoi
 
will
 
be
 
invited
 
to
 
send
 
representatives.
 
These
 
are
 
not
 
listed.
 
Foreign
 
diplomats
 
will
 
attend
 
the
 
opening
 
and
 
closing
 
ceremonies
 
as
 
usual.
 
There
 
will
 
be
 
a
 
media
 
frenzy
 
with
 
150
 
foreign
 
 journalists
 
present.
 
My
 
bottom
 
line
 
is
 
that
 
much
 
is
 
being
 
withheld
 
for
 
the
 
moment.
 
[client
 
name
 
deleted]
 
December
 
29:
 
For
 
a
 
story
 
I’m
 
writing
 
today,
 
have
 
you
 
been
 
able
 
to
 
draw
 
any
 
conclusions
 
from
 
the
 
14
th
 
plenum
 
in
 
terms
 
of 
 
personnel
 
and
 
economic
 
policy
 
issues?
 
One
 
line
 
in
 
the
 
communiqué
 
after
 
the
 
event
 
seems
 
to
 
have
 
caught
 
the
 
eye
 
of 
 
people
 
here
 
 –
 
that
 
the
 
plenum
 
agreed
 
that
 
some
 
issues
 
were
 
unresolved
 
and
 
that
 
they
 
would
 
be
 
taken
 
up
 
after
 
the
 
Congress.
 
The
 
personnel
 
issues
 
(at
 
least
 
at
 
the
 
top)
 
don’t
 
seem
 
to
 
be
 
the
 
problem.
 
So,
 
what
 
issues
 
have
 
they
 
not
 
worked
 
out?
 
ANSWER:
 
Yes
 
it
 
is
 
clear
 
from
 
the
 
resolution
 
issued
 
at
 
the
 
end
 
of 
 
the
 
14
th
 
plenum
 
that
 
there
 
were
 
a
 
number
 
of 
 
unspecified
 
complex
 
problems
 
on
 
which
 
it
 
was
 
unable
 
to
 
achieve
 
consensus
 
despite
 
prolonged
 
consideration
 
and
 
that
 
further
 
research
 
would
 
be
 
undertaken
 
and
 
provided
 
to
 
the
 
11
th
 
congress
 
for
 
consideration.
 
The
 
final
 
wording
 
of 
 
the
 
basic
 
draft
 
policy
 
documents,
 
however,
 
has
 
been
 
approved.
 
These
 
unresolved
 
complex
 
problems
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
be
 
dealt
 
with
 
at
 
the
 
congress
 
and
 
passed
 
on
 
the
 
new
 
leadership
 
but
 
not
 
released
 
in
 
public.
 
On
 
unresolved
 
issues:
 
these
 
relate
 
mainly
 
to
 
internal
 
party
 
administrative
 
and
 
organizational
 
affairs
 
 –
 
policy
 
and
 
implementation
 
mechanisms
 
 –
 
on
 
a
 
number
 
of 
 
issues
 
related
 
to
 
dealing
 
with
 
which
 
party
 
echelon
 
has
 
the
 
power
 
to
 
discipline
 
party
 
members
 
and
 
party
 
branches;
 
the
 
procedures
 
for
 
resolving
 
internal
 
complaints
 
made
 
by
 
party
 
members
 
against
 
party
 
officials
 
and
 
administrative
 
procedures;
 
the
 
expanded
 
role
 
of 
 
party
 
delegates
 
at
 
party
 
congresses;
 
election
 
procedures
 
for
 
the
 
forthcoming
 
11
th
 
party
 
congress;
 
and
 
the
 
demarcation
 
of 
 
powers
 
and
 
responsibility
 

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