Contents
A Different View on the European Anniversary
Fyodor Lukyanov
5
Essential Talk
Mikhail Gorbachev:
“Everything must be carried through to the end”8
In our transition to democracy we are somewhere in the middle, still far away. We, a country in transition, have not understood what freedom is and how touse it. We do not use democratic institutions in earnest. We must focus on thedevelopment of our country, so that people can be proud of it.
Lessons of the European Revolution
Without Ideology or Order
Timofei Bordachev
16
The greatest achievement in Russian foreign policy over the past 20 years has been the renunciation of messianism. Yet today Russia has to choose again between a policy based on global ideas, one that is mainly pursued by the Unit-ed States, and sovereign pragmatism, which is characteristic of the foreign poli-cies of China, India, and – increasingly – Europe.
Policy Transformation
Viatcheslav Morozov
30
Like any social and cultural form, the era of Russia’s exclusion from Europe isnot endless and will be over one day; this issue may even lose its pressing char-acter (for instance, if the center of the global world shifts to Asia). Still, the cur-rent situation shows an amazing stability and we Europeans just do not haveenough political imagination to eradicate this standoff.
RUSSIA
in
GLOBAL AFFAIRS
Vol. 7•No. 4•OCTOBER– DECEMBER•2009
Assimilating Experience
Lai Hairong
41
The Soviet Union had been a model for China in terms of systemic develop-ment, even though international relations between China and the SovietUnion practically broke off in the 1960s. Thus, nothing could be more sweep-ing in Chinese mentality than the demise of its tutor, the Soviet Union.
Post-Soviet Russia’s Challenges
Tradition Breaks Reform
Leonid Sedov
50
Russian society tends to form tiers of mafias through the actions of the princi-ples of hierarchy and rank-worship on the one hand, and adolescent group sol-idarity on the other, with the upper-ruling mafia as the occupational force.
Missing in Translation
Piotr Dutkiewicz
58
The lack of real modernization policies of the last four to five years cannot becontinued without serious, negative, long-term consequences. The only goodthing about the current crisis is that no one can deny the necessity for acceler-ated change and the need for a larger, societal debate about the future of thecountry.
Russia’s Future: Nation or Civilization?
Igor Zevelev
73
To build a real civic identity, a nation must have legitimate and, desirably, his-torically grounded borders, as well as stable and effective state institutions. Theall-Russian nation within the present borders of the Russian Federation is young, unstable and weak. Regular elections, political parties, common socialand economic problems, and politics could gradually become a shell for a newpolitical nation.
Where Is the “Pilot Region” Heading?
Vadim Smirnov
88
The Kaliningrad Region can be called a “war child.” Eastern Prussia with itscapital Koenigsberg would not have had such a knotty history if Germany hadnot lost World War II. After the breakup of the Soviet Union the region founditself in completely new and hitherto unseen geopolitical conditions.
Twenty Years of Drifting Apart
Nikolai Silayev
98
The logic of Realpolitik pushes Russia not towards defining for itself the limitsto restricting the sovereignty of neighbors, but towards taking as muchsovereignty from its neighbors as – using Yeltsin’s famous metaphor – it canswallow. This approach rules out long-term agreements.
Contents
RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 7 • No. 4 •OCTOBER – DECEMBER • 2009
Towards a New Diplomacy
Once Again about a New Entente
Yevgeny Savostyanov
112
Recent developments in the world make it necessary to focus on a dramaticrevision of Russian-U.S. relations on a scope not seen before. Russia, the world’s largest country with immense resources, and the U.S., the richest, mostpowerful and advanced country in the world, have no immanent contradic-tions. There are no insurmountable obstacles against building a full-scale part-nership.
Arctic Diplomacy
Alexander Oreshenkov
121
An analysis of the historical and legal aspects of the current sovereign jurisdic-tion of land surface areas that serve as points of departure in measuring the boundaries of exclusive economic zones and the continental shelf beyond themmay have significance for the delimitation of maritime areas between Russiaand its Arctic neighbors.
The Crisis: A New Insight
Who Is to Blame?
Fyodor Shelov-Kovediayev
134
Although all the markets have actually turned into financial ones, there is noreliable theory that would explain how they function; even the leaders of thefinancial world had a feeble idea about the specificity of the new financialinstruments. It appears that the theory of long-term economic cycles has grownoutdated, while the theory of real cycles does not have a practical value.
Financial Architecture: Urgent Repair
Leonid Grigoriev & Marsel Salikhov
145
Russia’s role in the world financial architecture is unlikely to be as significantas many would wish it to be, but given sensible alliances and compromises, itmay become quite sufficient for protecting its national interests. The currentsituation should be used to modernize Russia’s own financial system, increaseits resistance to external shocks, and its ability to convert internal savings intodomestic investments in development.
The Road Map of an Anti-Crisis Strategy
Vyacheslav Kopiev
160
The cynicism of economic nationalism is manifested primarily in appeals to buy domestic products. Meanwhile, the ability of domestic manufacturers toproduce products that would meet the growing requirements of buyers directly depends on their involvement in the international division of labor.
Review
No Easy Path to Constructive U.S.-Russian Relations
Thomas Graham
168
Contents
RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 7 • No. 4 •OCTOBER – DECEMBER • 2009
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