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Dr. Alexander Mirtchev Analyzes the Diverse RecoveryPotential of Rapidly Developing and Emerging Markets
Wed Apr 22, 2009 8:01am EDT
 
WASHINGTON, DC, Apr 22 (MARKET WIRE) --In an interview with Mergermarket.com, Dr. Alexander Mirtchev, founderand president of Krull Corporation, assesses the diverse recoveryprospects for rapidly developing economies and emerging markets, notingthat such recovery would be prolonged and uneven, much akin to theHollywood-style multiple DVD endings for different regions. He stressesthat "rapidly developing and emerging market economies are under the samepressure as the developed economies and each will face diverse recoveryprospects, based on economic characteristics that vary between eachcountry. All rapidly developing economies are looking for a way out ofthe recession -- one that would boost their regional and internationalstanding, in the context of global cooperation and in directions theyperceive as strategic."The extent to which the fate of these markets is tied to thedevelopmentof the global economy effectively demonstrates that they are neither"decoupled," nor a "single class of assets." The prominence of economiessuch as China, India, Brazil, Russia and emerging markets in general, isalmost "taken for granted," as confirmed by the tacit internationalagreement that they should have a greater say in the management of worldeconomic affairs. This notion was reaffirmed by the G-20 London Summit,including by just labeling it "G-20" rather than "G7" or "G8," and by therole of these economies in the new expanded Financial Stability Board."For example, the provision of increased IMF allocation permitting newflexible borrowing facilities for emergency situations, hopefully withoutthe stigma usually associated with IMF loans, may prove to be, undercertain circumstances, not just a gesture of symbolic value, but atangible instrument for alleviating specific economic imbalances.However, it remains unclear to what extent and in what role rapidlydeveloping economies would remain committed to being part of globallycoordinated measures under the potential threat of market fragmentationand prolonged unfavorable economic circumstances. "Each would feeldifferently about the ultimate value of multilateral measures, accordingto the situation in their own economies and the global markets. Inaddition, these economies may not feel fully reassured that the potentialfor fragmentation of the global economy has disappeared," said Mirtchev."The economic turnaround is not imminent and upward trends in rapidlydeveloping and emerging market economies would probably be patchy andsector-oriented, which more or less would characterize the nature of theupcoming recovery globally." They are likely to see economic growthinitially in select industry sectors, such as mining, power generation,consumer goods and agribusiness. At the end of the day, however, theirrecovery efforts would remain dependent to a large extent on thepersistence of the downward pressure from the crisis among developedeconomies and the manner in which they utilize up-trends in specificsectors as a catalyst for overall growth.Mirtchev indicated that "the specific competitive advantages certainemerging markets, such as the ones in Latin America, South East and
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