Global warming and climate change

Global warming

1880-2009 global mean surface temperature difference relative to the 1961–1990

average. Data source: NASA GISS
Comparison of ground based (blue) and satellite based (red: UAH; green: RSS) records of
temperature variations since 1979. Trends plotted since January 1982.

Mean surface temperature change for the period 2000 to 2009 relative to the
average temperatures from 1951 to 1980.[1]
Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface
air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation.
According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC), global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C
(1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 20th century. Most of the observed temperature
increase since the middle of the 20th century has been caused by increasing
concentrations of greenhouse gases, which result from human activity such as the
burning of fossil fuel and deforestation. Global dimming, a result of increasing
concentrations of atmospheric aerosols that block sunlight from reaching the
surface, has partially countered the effects of warming induced by greenhouse
gases.

Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that the
global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F)
during the 21st century.[2] The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of
models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of
differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. An increase in global
temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of
precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts.[4] Warming is
expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing
retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects include changes in
the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, species extinctions, and
changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region
to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional variations is
uncertain.[5] As a result of contemporary increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide,
the oceans have become more acidic, a result that is predicted to continue.[6][7]

The scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring.[8][9][10][B]

Nevertheless, political and public debate continues. The Kyoto Protocol is aimed at
stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic
interference".[11] As of November 2009, 187 states had signed and ratified the
protocol.[12]

Climate
 Worldwide Climate Classifications

Climate encompasses the statistics of temperature, humidity, atmospheric

pressure, wind, rainfall, atmospheric particle count and other meteorological
elements in a given region over a long period of time. Climate can be contrasted to
weather, which is the present condition of these same elements and their variations
over periods up to two weeks.

The climate of a location is affected by its latitude, terrain, and altitude, as well as
nearby water bodies and their currents. Climates can be classified according to the
average and the typical ranges of different variables, most commonly temperature
and precipitation. The most commonly used classification scheme was originally
developed by Wladimir Köppen.

Runaway climate change

Runaway climate change describes a potential scenario in which the climate
system passes a threshold or tipping point, after which internal positive feedback
effects cause the climate to continue changing without further external forcings.
The runaway climate change continues until it is overpowered by negative
feedback effects which cause the climate system to restabilise at a new state.

Runaway terms are occasionally used in relation to climate change events in

climatological literature. More generally, uses for these terms are found in the
engineering journals, in books, and in the news media. Runaway terms are also
used in the planetary sciences to describe the conditions that led to the current
greenhouse state of VenusThornthwaite system, in use since 1948, incorporates
evapotranspiration in addition to temperature and precipitation information and is
used in studying animal species diversity and potential impacts of climate changes.
The Bergeron and Spatial Synoptic Classification systems focus on the origin of air
masses that define the climate of a region.

Paleoclimatology is the study of ancient climates. Since direct observations of

climate are not available before the 19th century, paleoclimates are inferred from
proxy variables that include non-biotic evidence such as sediments found in lake
beds and ice cores, and biotic evidence such as tree rings and coral. Climate
models are mathematical models of past, present and future climates. Climate
change may occur over long and short timescales from a variety of factors; recent
warming is discussed in global warming.

Climate change and agriculture

Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take
place on a global scale.[1] Global warming is projected to have significant impacts
on conditions affecting agriculture, including temperature, carbon dioxide, glacial
run-off, precipitation and the interaction of these elementsThese conditions
determine the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for the
human population and domesticated animals. The overall effect of climate change
on agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects. Assessment of the
effects of global climate changes on agriculture might help to properly anticipate
and adapt farming to maximize agricultural production.
At the same time, agriculture has been shown to produce significant effects on
climate change, primarily through the production and release of greenhouse gases
such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, but also by altering the Earth's
land cover, which can change its ability to absorb or reflect heat and light, thus
contributing to radiative forcing. Land use change such as deforestation and
desertification, together with use of fossil fuels, are the major anthropogenic
sources of carbon dioxide; agriculture itself is the major contributor to increasing
methane and nitrous oxide concentrations in earth's atmosphere.
Effects of global warming
Graphical description of risks and impacts of climate change by IPCC (2001). A
revision of this figure by Smith et al.. (2009) shows increased risks.[1]

This article is about the effects of global warming and climate change.[2] The
effects, or impacts, of climate change may be physical, ecological, social or
economic. Evidence of observed climate change includes the instrumental
temperature record, rising sea levels, and decreased snow cover in the Northern
Hemisphere.[3] According to IPCC (2007a:10), "[most] of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in [human greenhouse gas] concentrations". It is predicted that
future climate changes will include further global warming (i.e., an upward trend in
global mean temperature), sea level rise, and a probable increase in the frequency
of some extreme weather events. Signatories of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change have agreed to implement policies designed to
reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases.
Current sea level rise

Sea level measurements from 23 long tide gauge records in geologically stable environments
show a rise of around 200 millimetres (8 inches) per century, or 2 mm/year.
Changes in sea level since the end of the last glacial episode

Current Sea Level Rise has occurred at a mean rate of 1.8 mm per year for the
past century, and more recently, during the satellite era of sea level measurement,
at rates estimated near 2.8 ± 0.4 to 3.1 ± 0.7mm per year (1993–2003). Current sea
level rise is suggested to be due significantly to global warming, which will
increase sea level over the coming century and longer periods. Increasing
temperatures result in sea level rise by the thermal expansion of water and through
the addition of water to the oceans from the melting of mountain glaciers, ice caps
and ice sheets. At the end of the 20th century, thermal expansion and melting of
land ice contributed roughly equally to sea level rise, while thermal expansion is
expected to contribute more than half of the rise in the upcoming century.

Values for predicted sea level rise over the course of this century typically range
from 90 to 880 mm, with a central value of 480 mm. Models of glacier mass
balance (the difference between melting and accumulation of snow and ice on a
glacier) give a theoretical maximum value for sea level rise in the current century
of 2 metres (and a "more plausible" one of 0.8 metres), based on limitations on
how quickly glaciers can melt.