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Thayer Vietnam's Next Defence Minister

Thayer Vietnam's Next Defence Minister

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Published by Carlyle Alan Thayer
This is an assessment of the factors that will influence the selection of Vietnam's next defence minister. This assessment argues that General Phung Quang Thanh will continue in office on the Politburo and as Miister of National Defence.
This is an assessment of the factors that will influence the selection of Vietnam's next defence minister. This assessment argues that General Phung Quang Thanh will continue in office on the Politburo and as Miister of National Defence.

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Categories:Types, Research, History
Published by: Carlyle Alan Thayer on Jan 06, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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01/06/2011

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Background Briefing:Vietnam’s Next Minister of National DefenceCarlyle A. ThayerJanuary 6, 2011
It
 
is
 
my
 
assessment
 
that
 
General
 
Phung
 
Quang
 
Thanh
 
will
 
remain
 
on
 
the
 
Politburo
 
of 
 
the
 
Vietnam
 
Communist
 
Party
 
and
 
continue
 
as
 
Minister
 
of 
 
National
 
Defence.
 
This
 
is
 
a
 
two
 
step
 
process.
 
First,
 
General
 
Phung
 
must
 
be
 
elected
 
to
 
the
 
party
 
Central
 
Committee
 
at
 
the
 
eleventh
 
party
 
congress
 
to
 
be
 
held
 
next
 
week.
 
I
 
see
 
no
 
problems
 
here.
 
Secondly,
 
General
 
Phung
 
will
 
have
 
to
 
become
 
a
 
successful
 
candidate
 
in
 
the
 
May
 
2011
 
elections
 
for
 
the
 
National
 
Assembly.
 
There
 
is
 
no
 
doubt
 
he
 
will
 
be
 
re
elected.
 
He
 
would
 
then
 
have
 
to
 
be
 
re
nominated
 
by
 
the
 
prime
 
minister
 
to
 
the
 
defence
 
portfolio.
 
This
 
nomination
 
will
 
have
 
to
 
be
 
approved
 
by
 
the
 
new
 
party
 
Central
 
Committee
 
before
 
being
 
formally
 
put
 
to
 
the
 
National
 
Assembly
 
deputies
 
for
 
confirmation.
 
I
 
see
 
no
 
problems
 
for
 
General
 
Thanh
 
here
 
either.
 
There
 
has
 
been
 
speculation
 
in
 
the
 
media
 
and
 
on
 
blog
 
sites
 
that
 
LT
 
GEN
 
Nguyen
 
Chi
 
Vinh,
 
presently
 
one
 
of 
 
the
 
deputy
 
ministers
 
of 
 
national
 
defence,
 
will
 
replace
 
General
 
Thanh
 
and
 
gain
 
a
 
seat
 
on
 
the
 
Politburo.
 
Some
 
reports
 
have
 
insinuated
 
that
 
I
 
am
 
the
 
source
 
for
 
such
 
speculation.
 
This
 
is
 
not
 
the
 
case.
 
Here
 
is
 
my
 
assessment
 
which
 
has
 
been
 
constant
 
for
 
over
 
the
 
past
 
year:
 
The
 
next
 
minister
 
of 
 
national
 
defence
 
after
 
General
 
Phung
 
will
 
be
 
a
 
person
 
who
 
has
 
a
 
career
 
in
 
the
 
combat
 
arms,
 
who
 
has
 
commanded
 
a
 
military
 
region
 
and
 
served
 
in
 
a
 
higher
 
position
 
such
 
as
 
chief 
 
of 
 
the
 
general
 
staff 
 
or
 
as
 
deputy
 
minister.
 
Lt
 
Gen
 
Vinh
 
lacks
 
these
 
credentials.
 
Lt
 
Gen
 
Vinh
 
has
 
been
 
outstanding
 
in
 
his
 
role
 
as
 
deputy
 
minister
 
in
 
promoting
 
Vietnam’s
 
international
 
defence
 
cooperation.
 
He
 
was
 
the
 
person
 
who
 
took
 
responsibility
 
for
 
the
 
thirty
 
or
 
more
 
ASEAN
defence
 
related
 
meetings
 
hosted
 
by
 
Vietnam
 
as
 
ASEAN
 
chair
 
in
 
2010.
 
His
 
major
 
accomplishment
 
was
 
to
 
host
 
successfully
 
the
 
inaugural
 
meeting
 
of 
 
the
 
ASEAN
 
Defence
 
Ministers
 
Plus
 
Eight
 
meeting
 
as
 
well
 
as
 
the
 
ancillary
 
ASEAN
 
Defence
 
Senior
 
Officials
 
Meeting
 
and
 
ASEAN
 
Senior
 
Officials
 
Meeting
 
Plus
 
Eight.
 
The
 
military
 
in
 
Vietnam
 
holds
 
one
 
position
 
on
 
the
 
Politburo
 
and
 
that
 
is
 
held
 
by
 
the
 
current
 
Minister
 
of 
 
National
 
Defence.
 
There
 
are
 
no
 
indications
 
I
 
am
 
aware
 
of 
 
that
 
this
 
number
 
will
 
be
 
increased.
 
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

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