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PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN • Mahasiswa mampu memahami pola-pola
demand
• Mahasiswa mampu menerapkan teknik-teknik
peramalan
Kuliah 2
LSiPro – FT Untirta
Muhammad Adha Ilhami
1
10/14/2010
References :
Simple Regression
Makridakis et al.
Hanke and Reitsch
Wei, W.W.S.
ARIMA Box, Jenkins and Reinsel
Neural Networks
2
10/14/2010
Keterangan data:
Contoh: - Paling baik menggunakan data permintaan
- Opini individu - Menggunakan data jumlah unit penjualan
- Opini kelompok - Kalau tidak dimiliki data penjualan, gunakan data
- Forum Delphi jumlah unit produksi
Muhammad Adha Ilhami Muhammad Adha Ilhami
3
10/14/2010
95
99.8
yang dipilih
Pola Data Trend Pola Data Siklik
4. Pilih metode peramalan dengan error terkecil 104
102
98.2
98
100 97.8
Data Data
• Siklis :
4
10/14/2010
Contoh Perhitungan Peramalan Regresi (2) Contoh Perhitungan Peramalan Regresi (3)
• estimasi : • estimasi :
t d(t) t d(t) t^2 d(t)^2 t d(t) t d(t) t^2 d(t)^2
1 800 800 1 640,000 1 800 800 1 640,000
2 900 1,800 4 810,000
• = 55 2 900 1,800 4 810,000
• =5
3 1,100 3,300 9 1,210,000 • = 5.300 3 1,100 3,300 9 1,210,000 • = 17.200
4 1,200 4,800 16 1,440,000 4 1,200 4,800 16 1,440,000
5 1,300 6,500 25 1,690,000
• = 15 5 1,300 6,500 25 1,690,000
• =15
• = 17.200 • = 5.300
15 5,300 17,200 55 5,790,000 15 5,300 17,200 55 5,790,000
• = 5 x 55 = 275 • = 55
• = (15)^2 = 225 • = 15^2 = 225
5
10/14/2010
∑ Y − Yˆ ∑ e
i i i
Standard Error of Estimate (SEE) MAD = i =1
= i =1
∑e i
MPE = i =1
Mean Absolute Persentage Error (MAPE) n
6
10/14/2010
. . 600
50 178 5 950 Penjualan
Out sample: 400
51 168 6 1000
Kriteria in sample dilakukan . . Digunakan untuk validasi 200
98 154
model peramalan.
melalui MSE (Mean Square). 99 179 0
100 180 (Validasi Model) 1 2 3 4 5 6
900 1 800 916.67 -116.67 13611.11 -14.58 14.58 859.45 -59.45 3534.30 -7.43 7.43
3 916.67
2 1000 916.67 83.33 6944.44 8.33 8.33 882.30 117.70 13853.29 11.77 11.77
4 850 916.67
3 900 916.67 -16.67 277.78 -1.85 1.85 905.15 -5.15 26.52 -0.57 0.57
t d(t) D(t) 5 950 916.67
4 850 916.67 -66.67 4444.44 -7.84 7.84 928.00 -78.00 6084.00 -9.18 9.18
6 1000 916.67
Regresi : 1 800 859.45 5 950 916.67 33.33 1111.11 3.51 3.51 950.85 -0.85 0.72 -0.09 0.09
6 1000 916.67 83.33 6944.44 8.33 8.33 973.70 26.30 691.69 2.63 2.63
D(t) = a + bt 2 1000 882.30
5500 33333.33 44.45 24190.53 31.67
a = 836,6 3 900 905.15
B = 22,85 4 850 928.00
t d(t) D(t)
D(t) = 836,6 + 22,85t 5 950 950.85 = 33333,33/6 = 5555,56
= 24190,53/6 = 4031,75
6 1000 973.70
-3 800 928.06
-2 1000 947.96
-1 900 970.41
Kuadratis: = (33333,33/(6-1))^0,5 = 81,65
= (24190,53/(6-2))^0,5 = 77,76
D(t) = 910,714 + 16,07t + 1,275t2 1 850 995.41
2 950 1022.96
3 1000 1053.06
= 31,67/6 = 5,278
= 44,45/6 = 7,41
7
10/14/2010
= 59,13/6 = 9,85
895
890
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
8
10/14/2010
Data 6 93
Muhammad Adha Ilhami Muhammad Adha Ilhami 7 80
9
10/14/2010
10