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Reducing Systemic Cyber Security Risk

Reducing Systemic Cyber Security Risk

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Published by: Silendo on Jan 18, 2011
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IFP/WKP/FGS(2011)3MULTI-DISCIPLINARY ISSUESINTERNATIONAL FUTURES PROGRAMME
OECD/IFP Project on
“Future Global Shocks”
 
“Reducing Systemic Cybersecurity Risk”
 
 Peter Sommer, Information Systems and Innovation Group, London School of Economics Ian Brown, Oxford Internet Institute, Oxford University
Contact persons:
Pierre-Alain Schieb: +33 (0)1 45 24 82 70, pierre-alain.schieb@oecd.orgAnita Gibson: +33 (0)1 45 24 96 27, anita.gibson@oecd.org14th January 2011
 
 
This report was written by Peter Sommer and Ian Brown as a contribution to the OECD
 project ―Future Global Shocks‖.
The opinions expressed and arguments employed hereinare those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.
 
3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................... 6
 
SYSTEMIC CYBER SECURITY RISK .......................................................................... 9
 
SYSTEMIC CYBER SECURITY RISK ........................................................................ 10
 
DESCRIPTION AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT ......................................................... 15
 
Early days of business and government computing ..................................................... 15
 
1970s and 1980s: changing patterns of risk ................................................................. 15
 
Routes to democratisation ............................................................................................ 16
 
The emergence of the Internet ...................................................................................... 17
 
Changing business practices ........................................................................................ 20
 
E-Government .............................................................................................................. 20
 
Smart Grids and SCADA ............................................................................................. 21
 
Cloud Computing ......................................................................................................... 22
 
Complexity / Source Lines of Code / Program Bugs ................................................... 22
 
Critical Infrastructures: Cyber Elements ...................................................................... 23
 
Specific Systemic Threats ............................................................................................ 24
 
Blended attacks ............................................................................................................ 29
 
Large-scale criminal attacks ......................................................................................... 29
 
Recreational Hacking ................................................................................................... 31
 
Hactivism ..................................................................................................................... 31
 
Large-scale State and Industrial espionage .................................................................. 32
 
REMEDIES ..................................................................................................................... 34
 
Remedies: Security Doctrines ...................................................................................... 34
 
Remedies: System Design ........................................................................................... 35
 
Remedies: Detective and Preventative ........................................................................ 36
 
Remedies: Mitigation and Recovery .......................................................................... 39
 
RISK CHARACTERISATION, INTERLINKAGES AND KNOCK-ON EFFECTS ... 42
 

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