(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 8, No. 9, December 2010
x x E xt
and one can find in a table of Laplace-Gauss the probability so that the project is carried out in a giventime, for example:
Centered reducedvalueProbability35t = (35-41)/7,81 =-0,76P(+t)=1-P(-t)P(-t)=1-P(+t)= 22,36 %37t = (37-41)/7,81 =-0,51P (-0,51) = 30,50%39t = (39-41)/7,81= -0,25P (-0,25) = 40,13%41 t= (41-41)/7,81= 0P (0) = 50 %43t= (43-41)/7,81=0,25P (0,25) = 59,87 %45t= (45-41)/7,81=0,51P (0,51) = 69,50 %47t= (47-41)/7,81=0,76P (0,76) = 77,64 %
Table 2. The probability recapitulation corresponding to each selectedtotal duration for the project.
RAWBAKS OF PERT APPROACH
One understands easily that if mistakes sully the sourcedata of PERT to knowing
a, b, m
they accuse the righter probability to complement the project in time, taking intoaccount the systematic skew which they make in thecalculation of the expected total duration of the projectand its variance .In what follows is a general set of notes that seem to usfundamental and which blame the probabilistic approachof PERT.
Potential errors related to the inaccuracy of theestimations (a), (b), and (m)
The estimation of the source data
of PERT is in general a challenge of size for the project manager. It is frequent to note that
are presented systematically in a symmetrical and aregular form, the kind of 20, 30, 40. For solving this problem, certain authors suggested to replace the absolutevalues
in percent of orders 5% and 95%respectively or 10% and 90%. From where a source of error By considering the possibility of having incorrectestimations, it seems less certain to obtain the accurate parameters of the supposed beta distribution of theactivities duration.Obviously, the estimation depends on the experiment of the responsible person. The estimations can beimprobably optimistic or pessimists taking into accountthe human factor or of the subjectivity which surroundsthem. Besides, the relationship between the experiencegained in similar projects management on the one handand the quality of the estimations of the activities durationof an innovative project on the other hand, is perhaps notstrong. For all this, it is necessary to add the risk of thedurations’ inflation by the manager who wants to givehimself a rather broad safety margin.
Determinism in the determination of thecritical path
The determination of the critical path in PERT relates tothe expected durations of the activities so that thestochastic element, as to the variance of the activitiesdurations, is taken into account only at the end of theanalysis in the probability calculus in order to finish the project in time . As a result, the analysis of the critical path is reduced to a deterministic form such as in CPM: adeterminism which hinders the probability of PERT .As a consequence, the total duration of PERT project is ingeneral smaller and never larger than the real duration of the project at time
. Indeed, «the delays caused by theunforeseen and unfavorable winds, are often longer thanthe advances due to the good luck or a zephyr collaborator» . The hoped total duration of the projectin PERT in general undergoes a skew towards the left of the distribution thus towards the optimistic time. It iswhat makes to say to Soroush  that the traditionalapproach in conventional PERT is unaware of the fact thatthe probability of the activities durations gives goodchances to a range of paths to become potentially criticaland so led to an estimation rather excessively optimisticof the probability of achieving the project in time. It isthus another source of error.Archibald et al.  show that the critical path determinedin PERT being not necessarily the longest, therefore notnecessarily critical. In other words, the critical pathdetermined in PERT does not include necessarily thecritical activities, the latter which are supposed to be theonly ones which attract the attention of the projectmanager if he wants to avoid any delay in the achievementof the project. It is also another source of error.
The interdependence of the paths or therelationship of the paths
Two or several ways can share shared activities.They are interdependent or are thus correlated. The waysof the network are thus not always independent from the point of view of their duration, such as presupposed byPERT in the determination of the critical path.Consequently, if a path has a very great duration, the other paths with which it shares activities could also have a longduration 
Potential errors related to the assumption of Beta distribution
One of the fundamental assumptions of PERT is Betadistribution of the activities duration (fig. 3.).